Unexpected cooling of the job market, many Federal Reserve officials emphasize the need to remain patient, Vice Chairman Bowman supports rate cuts.

As the latest US employment data unexpectedly weakened, there is a clear division among Federal Reserve officials on the future path of monetary policy. On one hand, some officials believe that the weak labor market may need rate cuts to support it, while on the other hand, some officials emphasize the risks brought by inflation and rising energy prices, and believe that rates should remain unchanged for some time. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday showed that the number of people employed in the US in February unexpectedly decreased by 92,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4%. This challenges the previous assessment that the labor market was gradually stabilizing. On Friday, Vice Chair Bowman, responsible for supervision at the Federal Reserve, stated that this report reinforced her support for further rate cuts. In an interview, she stated that although she supported keeping rates unchanged at the January meeting, the latest employment data suggests that the labor market may be weakening and needs policy support. Bowman said, "This data confirms that the labor market is still weak and may need policy rate support." Meanwhile, other officials continue to emphasize patience. Cleveland Fed President Mester stated that in her baseline scenario, rates should remain at the current level for some time, waiting for more evidence of continued inflation decline and further labor market stabilization. However, she also pointed out that there are "two-way risks" to the economic outlook, and policymakers need to be prepared for different scenarios. Boston Fed President Rosengren also stated that there is currently no urgent need to adjust rates. She pointed out that with inflation still above the 2% target and with upside risks, maintaining the current federal funds rate target range of 3.5% to 3.75% remains the appropriate policy stance. She believes that further easing may only be supported when clear evidence shows inflation is declining to the target level, a situation that may not occur until the second half of this year. The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has added uncertainty to the policy outlook. After the US and Israel launched military actions against Iran, oil prices surged, pushing up gasoline prices and inflation expectations, which may limit the Fed's ability to support the job market through rate cuts. Kansas City Fed President George analyzed the changes in the labor market from a structural perspective. He stated that the rapid development of artificial intelligence and population aging are changing how businesses recruit. Some companies may pause recruitment before hiring to reassess the skill structure needed in the future. In terms of the policy schedule, Federal Reserve officials will hold the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 17-18. Before the meeting, officials will enter the traditional "quiet period." Currently, the market generally expects the Fed to keep rates unchanged at this month's meeting, but still anticipates some degree of rate cuts later in the year. With weakening employment data, rising oil prices, and increasing geopolitical risks, economic data in the coming months will be crucial in deciding the policy path.