Guotai Haitong: International oil prices continued to rise in February, it is expected that the global crude oil supply and demand situation will remain relatively loose throughout the year.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that since February 2026, international oil prices have shown strength. As of February 26, 2026, the closing price of Brent crude oil was $70.85 per barrel, an increase of 6.86% compared to early February. This is mainly due to the increased military activities between the US and Iran, with the US deploying warships near Iranian waters, causing market concerns about the escalation of tensions between the two countries. In the first quarter of 2026, OPEC+ has suspended production increases, but there is a possibility of restarting a "slight production increase" mode after April, with non-OPEC+ countries expected to provide supply increases of 60-100 thousand barrels per day each year from 2026 to 2027, leading to a relatively loose global oil supply and demand balance for the entire year. Main points of Guotai Haitong: Market concerns about the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran have led to the continuous increase in oil prices in February. Since February 2026, international oil prices have shown strength, with Brent crude oil closing at $70.85 per barrel as of February 26, 2026, an increase of 6.86% compared to early February. The main bullish factors are coming from the geopolitical front, with both the US and Iran increasing military activities, the US deploying warships near Iranian waters, causing market concerns about the escalation of tensions between the US and Iran. OPEC+ suspends production increases in the first quarter of 2026, and may restart a slight production increase in April. On January 4, 2026, OPEC+ oil-producing countries issued a statement deciding to maintain the production plans set in early November 2025 and continue to suspend production increases in February and March 2026. Recently, some representatives have indicated that OPEC+ may restart a "slight production increase" mode in April. Non-OPEC+ countries: providing a supply increase of 60-100 thousand barrels per day each year from 2026 to 2027. From 2026 to 2027, non-OPEC+ countries in the Americas region led by the United States, Brazil, and Canada will continue to provide oil increments. According to OPEC+ monthly reports, it is estimated that non-OPEC+ countries will see their oil production increase by 630,000 barrels per day and 610,000 barrels per day from 2026 to 2027, with Canada having an increase of 110,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 130,000 barrels per day in 2027, Brazil having an increase of 160,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 140,000 barrels per day in 2027, and Argentina having an increase of 60,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 90,000 barrels per day in 2027. Crude oil demand: Forecasted demand for 2026 has increased compared to the previous month. According to the average forecasts of OPEC+, EIA, and IEA, global crude oil demand is expected to increase by 1.143 million barrels per day and 1.32 million barrels per day in 2026 and 2027, respectively. OPEC+ predicts that crude oil demand will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.34 million barrels per day in 2027, EIA predicts an increase of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2027, and IEA predicts an increase of 850,000 barrels per day in 2026. Crude oil inventories: near five-year low levels. Since the second half of 2020, with improvements in demand and reductions in production by OPEC+, the global crude oil market has entered a destocking phase. Currently, global crude oil inventories remain close to five-year lows. At the same time, the US plans to replenish its strategic reserves. Before the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US had approximately 580 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves, steadily releasing strategic reserves to stabilize oil prices. As of February 20, 2026, the US had approximately 415 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves, showing a trend of replenishing reserves since August 2023, but still at historically low levels since 1984. Risk warning: Significant fluctuations in oil prices; policies falling short of expectations, etc.