Zhongjin: 2026 is a key year for the systematic development of green industries, focusing on the four major areas of energy, manufacturing, consumption, and finance.

CICC issued a research report stating that 2026 will be a crucial year for the systematic development of green development in China, focusing on the four core areas of energy, manufacturing, consumption, and finance, and looking ahead to ESG development trends. In terms of energy, it is recommended to focus on two major trends in energy innovation: the continuous advancement of new electricity system construction, the strengthening of the position of green electricity, the improvement of grid integration mechanisms, and the large-scale implementation of green electricity direct connection policies; for industries that rely on non-electric energy, green hydrogen substitution may become a key pathway for decarbonization, but faces significant challenges in the short term. In terms of manufacturing, it is recommended to focus on four major trends in the green development of the manufacturing industry: the construction of zero-carbon industrial parks and factories is becoming the leading unit for the manufacturing industry to achieve carbon peak, achieving low-carbon transformation through green electricity supply, digital energy and carbon management, CCUS, and other means; the stabilization of the expanding carbon market is expected to cover key industrial emissions areas in the 15th Five-Year Plan period, promoting key industries to achieve carbon peak. The carbon intensity index will accelerate the landing as a core management requirement for the manufacturing industry's decarbonization mechanism, promoting the industry to accelerate the elimination of high-consumption and backward production capacities, forming internal synergy with the current anti-inward integration governance direction in the manufacturing industry; internal carbon emission control will promote China's manufacturing industry to shift from passive adaptation to international green rules to actively participate and even lead the formulation of global green standards. In terms of consumption, looking ahead to 2026, CICC believes that green consumption is expected to become a key focus of green development work, achieving dual benefits of expanding domestic demand and sustainability. Focus on key products: for Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group, the potential for domestic market consumption needs to be stimulated; for household appliances and decorations, the growth space for green appliances depends on the upgrading of energy efficiency standards, while the policy support for green building materials is strong; for cars, subsidy support for new energy vehicles under the "old for new" scheme is expected to remain stable, with opportunities in the aftermarket waiting to be explored. In terms of finance, green finance development has reached a turning point of "moving from virtual to real," and it is recommended to pay attention to three major trends: policy tools "moving from virtual to real." CICC expects that the current top-level design system of green finance is comprehensive, and policies related to standardized standards and statistical evaluation are expected to undergo phase development. Green identification "moving from virtual to real." CICC expects substantial progress in the determination of the degree of greenness of financing entities by 2026. Green financial products "moving from virtual to real." CICC believes that the structure of green finance in 2026 will gradually tilt towards direct financing, with an increase in the share of direct financing related green financial products, and debt-based green financial products may become the main force. Key points from CICC: 2026 will be a crucial year for the systematic development of green development in China. We focus on the strategic requirements of "comprehensively transforming the economy and society into green," and analyze how green can further empower and integrate into the four core areas of energy, manufacturing, consumption, and finance, looking ahead to ESG development trends. "Green + Energy": Driving innovation As the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan, in 2026, the comprehensive shift from energy consumption control to carbon emission control system will officially be implemented, and carbon emission intensity will become a core evaluation indicator, laying the foundation for China's energy transition model. We recommend focusing on two major trends in energy innovation: (1) the continuous advancement of new electricity system construction, the strengthening of the position of green electricity, the improvement of grid integration mechanisms, and the large-scale implementation of green electricity direct connection policies; (2) for industries that rely on non-electric energy sources, green hydrogen substitution or carbon decarbonization may become a key pathway, but faces significant challenges in the short term. "Green + Manufacturing": Leading by example China's manufacturing industry's green transformation is transitioning from concept-oriented to comprehensive implementation. We expect short-term pilot feasible solutions such as zero-carbon industrial parks to be promoted nationwide in the long term. In addition, the expansion of the carbon market, anti-inward integration, and overseas trade will also drive some industries to transform first. We recommend focusing on four major trends in the green development of the manufacturing industry: (1) the construction of zero-carbon industrial parks and factories is becoming the leading unit for the manufacturing industry to achieve carbon peak, achieving low-carbon transformation through green electricity supply, digital energy and carbon management, CCUS, and other means; (2) the stabilization of the expanding carbon market is expected to cover key industrial emissions areas in the 15th Five-Year Plan period, promoting key industries to achieve carbon peak; (3) the core management mechanism for reducing carbon emissions in the manufacturing industry using the carbon intensity index may accelerate the landing, pushing the industry to accelerate the elimination of high-consumption and backward production capacities, forming internal synergy with the current anti-inward integration governance direction in the manufacturing industry; (4) internal carbon emission control will promote China's manufacturing industry to shift from passive adaptation to international green rules to actively participate and even lead the formulation of global green standards. "Green + Consumption": Emerging trends Compared to the production end, the level of green consumption on the consumption end seems to be slightly lagging. Promoting green consumption has policy support and also fits the trend of GREEN ECONOMY development. Looking ahead to 2026, we believe that green consumption is expected to become a key focus of green development work, achieving dual benefits of expanding domestic demand and sustainability. Focus on key products: (1) for Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group, the potential for domestic market consumption needs to be stimulated; (2) for household appliances and decorations, the growth space for green appliances depends on the upgrading of energy efficiency standards, while the policy support for green building materials is strong; (3) for cars, subsidy support for new energy vehicles under the "old for new" scheme is expected to remain stable, with opportunities in the aftermarket waiting to be explored. "Green + Finance": Moving from virtual to real China's green finance development has gone through a decade, and we believe that the development of green finance embodies three major characteristics: (1) absolute leadership in indirect financing, with green loans taking the lead; (2) the policy system is mainly focused on top-level design, with a lack of standardized standards and statistical evaluation for green equity investment, etc.; (3) there seems to be a "imbalance" between green finance development and the green industrial economy, where green finance may not fully leverage its leverage. We believe that the development of green finance has reached a turning point of "moving from virtual to real," and it is recommended to pay attention to three major trends: (1) policy tools "moving from virtual to real." We expect that the current top-level design system of green finance is comprehensive, and policies related to standardized standards and statistical evaluation are expected to undergo phase development; (2) green identification "moving from virtual to real." We expect substantial progress in the determination of the degree of greenness of financing entities by 2026; (3) green financial products "moving from virtual to real." We believe that in 2026, the structure of green finance will gradually tilt towards direct financing, with an increase in the share of direct financing related green financial products, and debt-based green financial products may become the main force.