Brokerage morning meeting highlights | "Old and new together" still the most important combination configuration background

Yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated and fell below 4100 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the Growth Enterprise Market fell after rising. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 2.37 trillion yuan. In terms of sectors, the electrical equipment, military, and oil and gas sectors performed well. On the downside, the shipping and coal sectors weakened. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.98%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.75%, and the Growth Enterprise Market fell by 1.41%. At today's securities morning meeting, Guotou Securities believes that the combination of "old and new" is still the most important configuration background; CITIC SEC believes that the escalation of the situation in the Middle East may catalyze a higher-than-expected increase in aluminum prices; China Securities Co., Ltd. believes that after geopolitical tensions ease, tech stocks in the US show significant resilience. Guotou Securities: The combination of "old and new" is still the most important configuration background The so-called "HALO" trading has reached a historical high in the A-share market, and the more pragmatic and rational interpretation behind it does not come from AI technology's creative destruction, but from the impact of price increases. This is due to the stabilizing rebound of PPI causing constraints on the differentiation of technology/procyclical sectors, allowing current rising price categories to gain more excess return space. This means that there must be a "rebalancing" towards 2026. Continuing the practice of favoring technology as in 2025 is no longer appropriate, and the role of portfolio management is becoming more prominent. At the same time, because the stabilization and rebound of PPI are mostly driven by the rise in global-priced resources due to geopolitical tensions and a weak US dollar, lacking sustained support from domestic and foreign economic fundamentals, prices face high volatility after reaching highs, making it difficult for procyclical sectors to gain overwhelming advantages compared to technology. Therefore, the combination of "old and new" will be the most important structural configuration background. CITIC SEC: The escalation of tensions in the Middle East may catalyze a higher-than-expected increase in aluminum prices With the resurgence of conflicts in Iraq, significant risks have emerged in the aluminum industry, shipping capacity, and energy supply in the Middle East region. The follow-up disruption in the aluminum industry chain in the Middle East region and even the risk of a secondary energy crisis overseas cannot be ignored. Looking back at the energy crisis in 2021-22, aluminum prices and sectors saw the biggest gains of up to 60%/100%. Looking ahead, the rising concerns of the aluminum industry chain supply may lead to price increases beyond previous expectations. Coupled with the strong maintenance of the long-term supply and demand logic of the aluminum industry, we continue to be optimistic about the price and valuation trend of the aluminum sector. China Securities Co., Ltd.: Tech stocks in the US show significant resilience after geopolitical easing There have been signs of rebalancing in major asset classes in February, with previously lagging US treasuries and crude oil catching up, gold and silver volatility recovering, and US tech stock valuations releasing pressure. In the absence of major events, the market is expected to consolidate. The US-Iran situation has become a new source of volatility. In the short term, there is speculation on crude oil (insufficient pricing of US-Iran tail risks) and gold (it may take some time for gold to catalyze after the geopolitical crisis subsides); in addition, we recommend US tech stocks, which have left-sided opportunities and have released significant valuation pressure, showing great resilience after geopolitical easing. This article is reproduced from "Cai Lian She", GMTEight editor: Li Fo.