Highlights of Brokerage Morning Meeting | Three Effects of Iran Situation on Capital Markets

Yesterday, the three major indexes collectively closed lower, with the Shenzhen Component Index falling more than 3% after opening high and falling, the Growth Enterprise Index falling more than 2%, and the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the high point on January 14th before shaking back. The total turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 3.13 trillion. In terms of sectors, oil and gas stocks surged against the trend, while port shipping and chemical sectors were active. On the declining side, the semiconductor industry chain, rare earth permanent magnets, and military industry sectors experienced significant declines. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.43%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.07%, and the Growth Enterprise Index fell by 2.57%. At today's brokerage morning meeting, China Securities Co., Ltd. believes that the situation in Iran has three levels of impact on the capital market; Sinolink believes that the market is on the eve of a new round of rebound; CICC believes that the turning point in the northbound property market is gradually approaching. China Securities Co., Ltd.: Three levels of impact of the situation in Iran on the capital market In recent years, global pricing residual liquidity has been influenced by the situation in Iran, which affects global energy prices, determines the trend of inflation, and decides whether the main asset line will reverse. The situation in Iran has three levels of impact on the capital market: first, soaring crude oil prices drive inflation up; second, rising inflation triggers a change in liquidity; third, the rise in energy prices reconstructs the global supply chain. The depth of the impact of the situation in Iran on the market depends on whether the Strait of Hormuz, the Middle East's main artery, is disrupted, the degree of disruption, and its duration. The current outlook for Middle East oil supply in four scenarios and calculation of future oil price possibilities. Once control of the Strait of Hormuz, the main transport route in the Middle East, is secured, along with oil supplies from Latin America and North America, the three major regions of North America, Latin America, and the Middle East contribute 65% of the global oil supply, which can be said to constitute the vast majority of the global "old energy" map. This may be where Iran's strategic significance lies for the United States in the context of reshaping the global supply chain. Sinolink: The market is on the eve of a new round of rebound At present, the world is facing challenges in technology, disrupting industry order, and regional conflicts challenging globalization. In the prosperity period of order, physical assets that have been forgotten will have systemic importance. At the same time, Chinese assets have the strongest physical attributes globally, and their revaluation amid turmoil is worth noting. By 2025, China's market surge is more like the overspill of American financial expansion and technology bubbles; at present, the turbulence of the logical switch period is inevitable, but remember that it is not a bear market, but rather the eve of a new round of upward movement for Chinese assets. CICC: Turning point in northbound property market is gradually approaching This round of real estate cycle adjustment has lasted more than four years. Combined with recent changes in supply-side and policy changes, this year, Beijing and Shanghai housing prices are expected to stabilize, and the real estate sector may see a gradual beta rally. It is recommended for investors to grasp three types of investment strategies based on risk preferences: 1) allocate to stable targets with obvious beta characteristics; 2) allocate to structural growth of real estate development, targets with strong product capabilities and high inventory quality, and targets with deep valuation discounts and high potential elasticity; 3) some private enterprises return to the "table," achieving significant revaluation under oversold valuations. This article is reprinted from "Cai Lian Society", GMTEight editor: Chen Xiaoyi.