Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures fell together, while Brent crude oil continues to rise, approaching $85. Gold and silver plummeted amidst inflation concerns.

Pre-market Market Trends 1. As of March 3rd (Tuesday), pre-market trading in the US stock market saw a simultaneous drop in the futures of the three major stock indexes. As of writing, Nasdaq futures were down by 1.74%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 1.67%, and Dow futures dropped by 2.13%. 2. As of writing, the German DAX index fell by 3.96%, the UK's FTSE 100 index dropped by 2.71%, the French CAC 40 index declined by 2.95%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 3.62%. 3. As of writing, WTI crude oil prices rose by 8.83% to $77.52 per barrel, while Brent crude oil rose by 9.09% to $84.81 per barrel. Market News Middle East conflict continues, causing gold and silver prices to suddenly plummet! Inflation concerns scare off safe-haven buying. On Tuesday, after four consecutive trading days of increase, precious metals, seen as safe-haven assets, fell back as traders weighed the escalating situation in the Middle East, a strong US dollar, and the prospect of high inflation. As of writing, spot gold fell by over 3% to $5145.51 per ounce, and spot silver fell by nearly 9% to $81.29 per ounce. The conflict in the Middle East has caused energy prices to soar, which may gradually transmit to inflation data, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates for a longer period of time. High-interest rates typically create pressure on non-yielding precious metals, and a strong US dollar has a similar effect. The US dollar index has risen by over 1% so far this week. Traders now only see a 50% chance of the Fed cutting rates for a second time this year. Traders currently expect the Fed to cut rates in September, later than previously expected. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warns that the market will experience a "painful path"! GEO Group Inc is facing political storm, US stocks may see a correction before reaching new highs. The trading team at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warns that US stocks may need to further pullback before embarking on a sustainable upward trend. In their latest research report, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. mentions that the core logic behind the significant pullback before the new round of rebound is due to fragile market sentiment, volatile global fund flows, and the US macro background that broadly supports the bull market logic, which has not proven effective in absorbing the ongoing political tensions in the Middle East and the significant fluctuation in commodity prices. To Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., the current market appears more like a high probability stage of "experiencing a round of shock/retreat, then trying to effectively break through 7000 points (S&P 500 index), and then achieving a new bull market". Furthermore, what will truly determine whether US stocks can continue a strong bull market after the pullback is not the conflict events themselves, but whether the oil price impact persists, whether the disruption of the Hormuz transport lasts long-term, and whether the resulting inflation/interest rate expectations deteriorate. Rising oil prices rewrite forex trading logic! Wall Street's bearish stance on the dollar begins to loosen. J.P. Morgan's forex strategy team stated that as the military conflict between the US-Israel and Iran escalates, causing the significant blockade of oil and LNG transport across the entire Middle East region, if the impact of rising oil prices continues, it will pose the biggest threat to the view that "the dollar will significantly weaken this year" held by Financial Institutions, Inc. For many major Wall Street banks like J.P. Morgan with bearish stance towards the dollar, the logic behind shorting the dollar faces a major test brought by the rise in oil prices - if oil prices continue to rise and break through $100, the bearish logic for the dollar may completely collapse. Inflation remains unresolved with risks from GEO Group Inc, Yellen: Fed's rate cut will be more cautious, even choosing to "stand still". Former US Secretary of the Treasury and former Federal Reserve Chair Yellen stated that the duration of the impact of the Iran conflict on the oil market will determine the extent of its impact on US economic growth and the increased pressure on inflation, making the Fed's decision more complex. Yellen pointed out that the current US inflation rate is about 1 percentage point higher than the Fed's 2% target, and the Trump administration's tariff policy contributes about 0.5 percentage points to the current 3% inflation rate. Yellen stated that given the Fed has not yet brought inflation back to the 2% target, "they must be vigilant that market participants may wonder: the Fed did bring the inflation rate down to 3%, but they may not actually be sincere in pushing it back to 2%." If this mindset develops, the Fed will be concerned that inflation will permanently rise, making policy trade-offs even more difficult, which is also a reason why the Fed is more inclined to stand still. Individual Stock News Middle East conflict persists, US stocks diverge. In pre-market trading on Tuesday, oil stocks mostly rose, with ConocoPhillips (COP.US) up by over 3%, Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM.US) and Chevron Corporation (CVX.US) up by nearly 2%; defense stocks strengthened, with Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT.US), Raytheon Technologies (RTX.US) up by over 1%. Airline stocks generally fell, with American Airlines Group Inc. (AAL.US) down by over 3%, Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL.US), United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL.US) down by over 4%; technology stocks also mostly fell, with AMD (AMD.US) down by over 4%, Nvidia Corporation (NVDA.US), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US), Oracle Corporation (ORCL.US), Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) down by nearly 3%; memory stocks declined, with SanDisk (SNDK.US) down by over 7%, Micron Technology, Inc. (MU.US) down by nearly 6%, Western Digital Corporation (WDC.US), Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (STX.US) down by nearly 5%. Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) and Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) deepen AI collaboration, Siri's computational demand leads to new server hosting model. According to reports, the two companies reached an agreement on the Gemini model authorization at the beginning of the year, and this collaboration has now expanded to the cloud infrastructure field. Sources revealed that due to the increased computational demand from the new generation of Siri and Apple Intelligence, Apple Inc. is negotiating with Alphabet Inc. Class C to host and operate a server cluster specifically to support the backend operations of Siri in Alphabet Inc. Class C's data centers. The sources stated that Alphabet Inc. Class C has previously conducted studies on deploying servers internally in data centers. Alphabet Inc. Class C plans to comply with Apple Inc.'s strong privacy standards. The report mentioned that Alphabet Inc. Class C's cloud currently provides multiple key services to Apple Inc., including online data storage and training tasks for some of Apple Inc.'s internal AI models. $79 billion debt weighing down! Paramount's (PSKY.US) acquisition triggers credit avalanche, Fitch Ratings first to downgrade it to "junk". Fitch released a report announcing the downgrade of Paramount and its subsidiaries' long-term issuer default rating from the investment-grade edge of "BBB-" to "BB+", or so-called "junk" or "speculative grade". The rating agency also stated that Paramount is under negative observation, awaiting more details on the specific terms of the transaction, financing, deleveraging measures, and more. Fitch pointed out that despite the significant scale effects and content synergy potential of the merger with Warner, the acquisition has led to a sudden surge in the new company's leverage. Based on financial forecasts, the merged entity will carry a massive net debt of $79 billion, and the fragility of this financial structure significantly weakens its ability to withstand risks in the highly competitive and structurally changing media environment. As of writing, Paramount plunged by over 5% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. Target Corporation (TGT.US) beats Q4 profit expectations, expects sales growth to resume in the 2026 fiscal year. The financial report showed that Target Corporation's Q4 sales decreased by 1.5% year-over-year to $30.45 billion, slightly below the market's expectation of $30.5 billion; adjusted earnings per share were $2.44, beating the market's expectation of $2.15. Comparable sales decreased by 2.5%, slightly higher than the market's expectation of 2.4%. The company expects its sales to resume growth in the current fiscal yearsales have been declining for three consecutive years prior. Target Corporation stated that compared to the 2025 fiscal year, net sales in the 2026 fiscal year are expected to grow by about 2%, and added that the company expects net sales to grow in every quarter of the year. Target Corporation's forecast is in line with analyst expectations. The company expects adjusted earnings per share for the full year to be $7.50 to $8.50, with the midpoint of the forecast range higher than the market's expectation of $7.63. As of writing, Target Corporation rose by over 5% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. Strong earnings struggle against AI anxiety! MongoDB (MDB.US) gives soft guidance, stock plunges in pre-market trading. Despite announcing strong fourth-quarter performance, the document database platform provider's quarterly revenue guidance fell short of market expectations, causing investors already concerned about the rise of AI potentially disrupting their business to feel anxious once again. The company's fourth-quarter revenue increased by 27% year-over-year to $695.1 million, exceeding the market's expectation of $670.1 million; adjusted earnings per share were $1.65, higher than the market's expectation of $1.48. Investors were particularly interested in the cloud database software business Atlas, which also performed well, with revenue growing by 29% year-over-year. However, the company expects revenue to be between $659 million and $664 million in the first quarter of the fiscal year ending in April, with the midpoint of the forecast range lower than the market's expectation of $662.5 million; adjusted earnings per share are expected to be $1.15 to $1.19, with the midpoint of the forecast range lower than the market's expectation of $1.20. As of writing, MongoDB plummeted by nearly 27% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. Co-founder plans to sell $280 million in stock, Palantir (PLTR.US) drops in pre-market trading. The latest regulatory filing shows that Palantir co-founder Peter Thiel plans to sell up to 2 million shares of Class A stock worth $280 million through Merrill Lynch on March 3rd. According to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filing, Thiel last sold his Palantir shares in October 2024. Since the company's establishment in 2003, Thiel has been one of the company's largest individual shareholders and has served as chairman. As of writing, Palantir dropped by over 3% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. uniQure (QURE.US) Huntington's disease gene therapy hindered on the market, continues to decline in pre-market trading. The gene therapy company uniQure had hoped that its Huntington's disease candidate drug AMT-130 would receive accelerated approval from the US FDA, but this expectation was recently dashed. The FDA explicitly informed the biopharmaceutical company that a randomized, double-blind, sham surgery-controlled Phase III clinical trial needs to be conducted. According to a company press release, uniQure initially planned to seek approval based on a Phase I/II study data compared with an external control. However, the FDA deemed that the existing data is insufficient to "serve as the primary evidence of effectiveness required to support the application for AMT-130 approval". Following a drop of about 33% on Monday, as of writing, uniQure fell by nearly 8% in pre-market trading on Tuesday. Upcoming Important Economic Data and Events At 22:55 Beijing time: FOMC permanent voter, New York Fed President Williams speech At 23:10 Beijing time: FOMC voter, Kansas City Fed President Schmid speech on monetary policy and economic outlook At 00:55 Beijing time the next day: FOMC voter, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speech At 04:30 Beijing time the next day: Trump administration will hold a briefing on the Iran war to the Senate Earnings Forecasts Wednesday morning: CrowdStrike (CRWD.US), Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST.US)