Continues to rise by over 30%! Qatar attacked causing global 20% LNG supply disruption, European gas prices see largest fluctuation since 2022

As the impact of the prolonged shutdown of the world's largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) export base - Qatar, Europe's natural gas prices have risen for the second consecutive trading day. The market is highly uncertain about the duration of this shutdown and its impact on global energy supply. The price of the European natural gas benchmark in the Netherlands near-month futures contract has risen all the way, up 33.26% as of the time of writing, to 57.70 euros/megawatt-hour. Following the shutdown of facilities of QatarEnergy due to an Iranian drone attack, several Asian countries are urgently seeking alternative supplies, driving up the price of European benchmark natural gas futures on Tuesday. Some buyers have already requested early delivery of LNG cargoes, hoping that the situation can be eased in the short term to address the current supply urgency. The biggest suspense in the market now is how long the conflict will last. Conflicting signals have been released by the US on the duration of the conflict in the region, with US President Donald Trump vowing to "use all means necessary". Since the close of last Friday, European gas prices have cumulatively increased by over 50%, marking the highest price volatility since the 2022 energy crisis. As massive gas storage facilities are nearing depletion towards the end of winter, Europe is about to enter a crucial replenishing period, which may intensify the competition for global LNG cargoes. Traders are also focusing on the recent attack on the Qatari facilities, which could become one of the most severe unplanned shutdowns in industry history. "In the coming days, the market is expected to experience intense volatility, with traders evaluating the impact of production losses on their supply portfolios," said Ross Vieno, deputy director of S&P Global Energy and director of short-term LNG analysis. "Buyers in the Asia-Pacific market are expected to be most aggressive in spot purchases in the near term." As a super base accounting for approximately 20% of global supply, the comprehensive interruption of Qatar's LNG exports has suddenly tightened the global supply situation. In fact, even before the shutdown of the facilities, the escalation of Middle East conflicts had substantially hindered shipping in the Strait of Hormuz since the weekend, which is a vital passage for Qatar's gas exports. The battle for alternative sources has already begun in the Asia-Pacific region. Economies heavily reliant on gas-fired power generation, such as Taiwan, Korea, and others, are urgently seeking alternative sources. At the same time, mainland China gas buyers have revealed that China is urging Iran to keep the Strait of Hormuz open. Goldman Sachs analysts have significantly raised their expectations for European gas prices, increasing their April 2026 price forecast from the previous 36 euros/megawatt-hour to 55 euros/megawatt-hour. The analysis team led by Samantha Dart pointed out that since Qatar's LNG primarily flows towards Asia, spot prices in Asia are expected to be relatively stronger compared to Europe. Concerns about supply interruptions have spread to the options market. The implied volatility of European benchmark natural gas futures - a key indicator measuring the cost of related derivative contracts - has surged to its highest level since the summer of 2023, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market. "Supply security issues may once again become a concern for Europe," warned Hubert Wiegervino, CEO of the Swiss MET Group.