Yamato: It is expected that the conflict in Iran will escalate in the short term and may trigger panic demand.

Yamato released a research report stating that with the military escalation to war between the United States/Israel and Iran, the global logistics supply chain is facing a new round of disruptions due to the suspension of shipping and airline services in the affected areas. The report cited data from Clarkson Research Services, stating that Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping will have the biggest impact on the oil tanker market. 38% of ocean-going oil tankers are affected. Container shipping operators also face increased risks of attacks from Houthi rebels in the Red Sea region. Maersk announced that it will not expand its Red Sea route as planned, and will increase its route via the Cape of Good Hope. Mediterranean Shipping Company announced plans to suspend routes in the Middle East region until further notice. German Hapag-Lloyd has imposed a $1500 "war risk surcharge" on its Persian Gulf route for every 20-foot container, effective from March 2nd. Yamato pointed out that while some container shipping companies had plans to resume the Red Sea route earlier, the escalating geopolitical tensions are likely to delay the resumption of the route. Even though President Trump expects the conflict to end in "about four weeks", the escalation of the situation could potentially trigger panic buying in the short term, while reducing ship and aircraft capacity. While potential increases in freight rates may benefit shipping companies such as oil tankers, container ships, and bulk carriers, it is believed that a long-term war is not favorable for the overall market sentiment.