Citigroup: It is forecasted that the price of Brent crude oil will be between $80 and $90 per barrel for at least the next week, and it will drop in the second half of the year.
The expectation is that there will be a change in the leadership of Iran, or a significant enough change in the regime to stop the war within one to two weeks. It is even possible that the United States may decide to ease tensions after seeing a change in leadership, and during the same period, thwart Iran's missile and nuclear plans.
Citigroup released a research report stating that the basic assumption is that in the future, the price of Brent crude oil will be between $80 and $90 per barrel for at least one week, as conflicts between the United States, Israel, and Iran continue, increasing the risk to regional energy infrastructure. Additionally, there has been a slight disruption in transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian exports.
The bank expects a change in leadership in Iran, or enough changes in the regime to stop the conflict within one to two weeks, or even the possibility of the United States deciding to ease tensions after seeing changes in leadership and thwart Iran's missile and nuclear plans during the same period.
The bank predicts that in the event of a de-escalation, oil prices will fall to around $70 per barrel, but there is still a certain risk premium before falling to $62 per barrel in the second half of the year. Internal conflicts in Iran or regional conflicts could also lead to high oil prices being maintained for a longer period of time, but this is not the bank's basic assumption.
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