Guotai Haitong: Accelerated penetration of low- and mid-end new energy vehicles in the next 25 years, with overall growth expected to be moderate in 2026.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that by 2025, domestic wholesale sales of passenger vehicles will reach 23.97 million units, a year-on-year increase of +6%, maintaining resilient growth driven by policy support and consumer recovery; passenger car exports will reach 5.731 million units, a year-on-year increase of +21%, benefiting from the accelerated overseas expansion of independent brands and the improvement of competitiveness of domestically-produced new energy vehicles, with accelerated penetration of mid-to-low-end new energy vehicles. According to data on insurance policies for end users, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the 100,000-150,000 yuan passenger car market has increased from 45% in 2024 to 54% in 2025. Looking ahead to 2026, the bank predicts that the sales volume of passenger vehicles in 2026 will be approximately 29.82 million units, a year-on-year increase of +1%, with sales of new energy passenger vehicles reaching approximately 17.05 million units, a year-on-year increase of +10%, with the penetration rate continuing to increase but the overall growth rate slowing down. The bank believes that the policy of replacing old vehicles with new ones will marginally benefit high-end new energy vehicle models, with a variety of high-end new energy vehicles, MPVs, SUVs, and other sub-segment markets thriving. The bank is optimistic about car manufacturers with leading globalization strategies, outstanding performance in high-end markets, and prominent capabilities in intelligent technologies.