Economists: Global inflation expected to rise due to the impact of the Iran war.

A survey of global economists shows that due to the Iran war, global inflation is expected to rise, but the current economic growth prospects are largely unaffected. The survey found that half of the respondents believed that inflation in the Eurozone would accelerate slightly, and a similar proportion believed that inflation in the United States would also increase. Nearly 40% of respondents expected inflation in China to accelerate, defined as consumer price increases exceeding previous expectations by 0.3 to 0.9 percentage points. The greatest inflation threat posed by the war comes from rising oil and gas prices, as about one-fifth of global seaborne supply typically passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is now almost completely blocked. Moreover, if the conflict continues, it will trigger a series of chain reactions, such as increased air ticket prices, distribution costs, and more widespread supply chain risks. Most respondents predict that the war will have little impact on the GDP of the United States, the Eurozone, or China. However, many respondents added that this largely depends on how long the conflict continues. Analysis suggests that if oil prices continue to rise, major import countries including Europe and India will be affected, while export countries such as Russia, Canada, and Norway will benefit. As for the United States, higher fuel costs will squeeze consumer incomes, leading to losses for consumers. However, as the extraction of shale oil has made the United States an oil-exporting country, the overall economic impact is relatively small.