Guosen: Demand for large home appliances has been recovering since 2026. The reduction of US tariffs is conducive to the export of home appliances.

Guosen released a research report stating that since 2026, the demand for retail household appliances in China has rebounded, with a significant narrowing of the decline in the sales of major household appliances; the production reduction of white goods in March has also narrowed. The retail sales of household appliances in the United States continued to grow steadily, with an increase in appliance inventory, combined with a decrease in U.S. tariffs. The fundamentals of domestic and foreign sales of household appliances are expected to stabilize and improve. Guosen's main points are as follows: Since the beginning of the year, the demand for retail sales of major household appliances has rebounded, with the effects of the old-for-new policy becoming evident. According to AVC Cloud Network data, in the first 8 weeks of 2026 (from December 29, 2025, to February 22, 2026), the year-on-year growth rates of retail sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines, range hoods, dishwashers, rice cookers, air fryers, vacuum cleaners, and floor washers were all showing a narrowing decline in overall retail sales, with refrigeration, range hoods, and dishwashers showing steady performance. The production reduction of white goods in March has narrowed, with an improvement in the production of air conditioners compared to the previous month. According to online industry data, the total production of white goods in China reached 39.11 million units in March, a decrease of 4.0% from the same period last year. In March, the production of air conditioners for domestic and foreign sales decreased by 1.5% and 7.1% respectively compared to the same period last year, with a total production of 23.34 million units, a decrease of 6.1% from the same period last year; the production of refrigerators for domestic and foreign sales decreased by 4.8% and increased by 1.5% respectively compared to the same period last year, with a total production of 8.43 million units, an increase of 1.6% from the same period last year; the production of washing machines for domestic and foreign sales decreased by 9.5% and 0.1% respectively compared to the same period last year, with a total production of 7.34 million units, a decrease of 3.4% from the same period last year. In March, the domestic production of air conditioners showed a steady trend, while the production reduction for foreign sales narrowed slightly, refrigerators showed a steady overall performance for both domestic and foreign sales, and washing machines faced pressure in domestic sales due to a high base and inventory, while foreign sales remained stable. In December, the retail sales of household appliances in the United States continued to grow, while appliance inventory increased on a month-on-month basis. According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, retail sales of electronics and household appliance stores in the United States increased by 2.6% year-on-year in December, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 0.8% since the beginning of the year. Despite adverse effects such as tariffs and inflation, as the effects of interest rate cuts become evident, consumer spending on household appliances in the United States is gradually returning to a path of steady growth. At the same time, the inventory levels and inventory-to-sales ratios of appliance stores in the United States are gradually returning to normal levels. In November, the retail inventory of electronics and household appliance stores in the United States increased by 3.7% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month; the inventory-to-sales ratio was 1.59. Since hitting bottom in December 2024, the inventory levels and inventory-to-sales ratios of household appliances in the United States have been steadily rising, which will support the demand for Chinese exports of household appliances. On February 20, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the large-scale global tariff policy implemented by the Trump administration, canceling the 10% and 10% equivalent tariffs on fentanyl and China, respectively. However, the Trump administration subsequently announced the imposition of a 10% global import tariff (for 150 days), which was then increased to 15% within hours. It is expected that the combined reduction in Chinese export tariffs to the United States will amount to 5%, which is favorable for Chinese export enterprises in the household appliance sector. Key data tracking: Market performance The relative monthly return of the household appliance sector in February was +0.92%. Raw materials: the monthly change in LME 3-month copper/aluminum prices in February was +0.3%/+1.0%; the price of cold-rolled sheet metal decreased by 2.5% month-on-month. Shipping index: the month-on-month change in the West Coast/U.S. East Coast/Europe lines in February was -10.6%/-7.7%/-7.8%. Core investment portfolio recommendations: White goods recommended include Midea Group Co., Ltd., HAIER SMARTHOME, Guangdong TCL Smart Home Appliances, and Hisense Home Appliances Group; black goods recommended include TCL ELECTRONICS and Hisense Visual Technology; small household appliances recommended include Anhui Anfu Battery Technology, Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings, and Beijing Roborock Technology. Risk warnings: Increased market competition; demand lower than expected; significant increase in raw material prices.