Zhongtai: Commercial aerospace-grade carbon fiber ushers in a new cycle of increased volume and price, with huge opportunities for domestic manufacturers to replace imported products.

Zhongtai released a research report stating that the commercial aerospace industry is currently at a critical period of transition from technology verification to large-scale deployment. Carbon fiber and composite materials, as key materials for achieving lightweighting and performance improvement, will deeply benefit from the expansion of the commercial aerospace market and the progress of localization. In terms of demand, the core driver of the market is the simultaneous increase in quantity and price at the satellite end, with satellite demand leading the way. Currently, the global supply of aerospace-grade carbon fiber is highly concentrated in Japan and the United States. Domestic industry leaders are accelerating their breakthroughs, and local benchmark companies are expected to enjoy long-term scarcity premiums under the restrictions of process technology and certification barriers. The main viewpoints of Zhongtai are as follows: Lightweighting is the key to cost competitiveness in commercial aerospace, and carbon fiber composite materials are a strategic necessity. Commercial aerospace has entered a critical window of large-scale development. Under the international rules of "first come, first served" for low-orbit satellites, frequency orbit resources have become scarce strategic assets. China has already applied to the ITU for a mega constellation plan of over 200,000 satellites, and the development of the industry chain now has a clear and rigid timetable and task scale. The essence of the commercial aerospace competition lies in the competition of costs and efficiency, with material lightweighting as a key factor. It is estimated that for every 1 kg reduction in satellite weight, about 500 kg of fuel can be saved in the launch system, leading to savings of around $20,000 in launch costs. Carbon fiber composite materials, with excellent properties such as low density, high specific strength, high specific modulus, and dimensional stability, have become the mainstream structural materials for aerospace vehicles. Key brands of carbon fiber for aerospace include the MJ series for satellites and T700S, T800S for rockets. Demand: The simultaneous increase in quantity and price at the satellite end is the core driver of the market. It is estimated that by 2030, the domestic market space for commercial aerospace carbon fiber will reach 6.7 billion yuan, with satellite demand leading the way. Aerospace-grade carbon fiber is considered the "pearl on the crown" of the industry, with prices much higher than general industrial-grade products. In 2017, the price range for the MJ series for satellites was around 10,000 yuan/kg, and for the T800S series for rockets, it was around 1,000 yuan/kg, while wind turbine blades and construction applications were only around 100 yuan/kg. (1) Satellite End: The growth in demand has a dual elasticity in quantity and price. The quantity elasticity comes from the trend towards larger satellites, which are required to carry stronger communication and computing payloads. The quality of satellites is rapidly improving (e.g., from the V2 Mini to V3 version of the Starlink satellite, the mass has increased from 575 to 1900 kg), directly driving an increase in the usage of carbon fiber in main structures, solar panel brackets, and other components. The price increase comes from the iterative upgrade of material performance in order to meet the stiffness requirements for large flexible solar panels (with areas of hundreds of square meters) and to ensure the shape stability of high-precision antennas in extreme temperatures in space. The material system is transitioning from the popular M40J grade to the high-performance M55J grade or even higher grades. The unit price of M55J is significantly higher than M40J (around 13,000 yuan/kg vs. 5,000 yuan/kg), and the increase in permeability of M55J will continue to drive up the value of carbon fiber for single satellites. (2) Rocket End: The application of carbon fiber is transitioning from critical components such as fairings and engine casings to the exploration stage of full-arrow body applications. China's first full carbon fiber composite liquid rocket has already achieved 90% carbon fiber structuralization of the rocket body, resulting in a weight reduction of 25-30% compared to metal solutions. (3) Market Space: Combining with China's future constellation deployment schedule for the next few years, the number of satellite launches is expected to increase from 634 to 8600 between 2026 and 2030. According to calculations, the usage of carbon fiber for satellites is expected to increase from 45 tons to 656 tons, corresponding to a market space increase from 360 million yuan to 6.46 billion yuan; the usage of carbon fiber for rockets is expected to increase from 17.9 tons to 115.5 tons, resulting in a market space increase from 40 million yuan to 2.3 billion yuan. In conclusion, according to the calculations, the domestic market space for commercial aerospace carbon fiber is expected to increase from 400 million yuan to 6.69 billion yuan between 2026 and 2030, with a CAGR of about 103%. Supply: Currently, the global supply is highly concentrated in Japan and the United States. Domestic industry leaders are accelerating their breakthroughs, and local benchmark companies are expected to enjoy long-term scarcity premiums under the restrictions of process technology and certification barriers. The technical barrier of the MJ series is high, with the core challenge lying in balancing the physical contradiction of "high modulus - high strength" during the graphitization process at 2000-3000C. This imposes high demands on companies' thermal equipment design capabilities and micro-process control capabilities. Due to the impact of process technology barriers and international technology blockade factors, aerospace-grade carbon fiber has long been monopolized by a few industry leaders such as Japan's Toray. In recent years, domestic M55J grade has successfully overcome technological barriers, with mechanical performance matching or even surpassing international benchmarks. However, due to the long certification period and technical difficulties for aerospace materials, currently only Weihai Guangwei Composites and the Chinese Academy of Sciences have stable batch supply capabilities for MJ grade. Zhongfu Shenying Carbon Fiber has completed multiple batches of stable production and is currently undergoing satellite end verification, with expected fast progress. Based on the previous predictions by the firm on the demand for satellite end carbon fiber in the next five years, it is expected that there will still be a supply shortage of MJ grade carbon fiber in the medium term, with significant room for domestic substitution. Risk Warning: Risks include lower-than-expected policy support, delays in domestic and international rocket launches, lower-than-expected satellite reliability, slower-than-expected progress in product localization, significant fluctuations in raw material prices, deviations in market space calculations, and risks of outdated information in the research report.