Overnight US stocks | Three major indices are mixed in their movements. Circle (CRCL.US) has gone up by more than 15%, while international crude oil has increased by over 6%.

On Monday, the US stock market opened low and rose, with the Dow falling nearly 600 points at one point during the day. However, the stock indices rebounded, with the Dow recovering most of its early losses, and the Nasdaq and S&P indices closing higher. As of the close, the Dow fell 73.14 points, or 0.15%, to 49804.78 points; the Nasdaq rose 80.65 points, or 0.36%, to 22748.86 points; and the S&P 500 index rose 2.74 points, or 0.04%, to 6881.62 points. Circle (CRCL.US) rose over 15%, while Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A.US, BRK.B.US) fell over 4.9%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index closed down 1.08%, with Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR (BABA.US) dropping 1%. In Asian stock markets, the Nikkei 225 index fell 1.35%, and the India Mumbai index fell 1.29%. In cryptocurrency, Bitcoin rose over 5% to $69223.53, while Ethereum rose over 5.4% to $2045.95. In crude oil, the price of light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $4.21 to settle at $71.23 per barrel, up 6.28%; while the price of Brent crude oil futures for May delivery on the London Mercantile Exchange rose $4.87 to settle at $77.74 per barrel, up 6.68%. In macroeconomic news, economists say that US manufacturing expansion in February hit a six-month low, with tariff uncertainty putting pressure on profits. Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global, Inc., said that US manufacturing in February recorded its weakest expansion since July of last year, indicating a further slowdown in overall economic growth in recent months. Orders have stalled, output growth has slowed, and exports have declined sharply. Factories' wage growth has also remained flat, as concerns about the health of orders have made companies increasingly hesitant to hire additional staff. Williamson pointed out that business operations are often disrupted by extreme weather conditions, which obscures observation of the economy's potential strength, and suggests that there may be some rebound after the weather improves; fortunately, manufacturers' optimism about the future has improved slightly. However, political uncertainty, especially the prospect of tariffs, remains an obstacle to confidence, hiring, and investment, and this situation could persist in the coming months. The US Appeals Court rejects the Trump administration's request to delay tariff refunds. The US Supreme Court earlier ruled that most of the Trump administration's tariff measures are invalid. The Department of Justice subsequently appealed to the federal appeals court, requesting an additional 90-day buffer period for the administration and legislative branches to consider options, with a total delay of up to four months. However, the Federal Court of Appeals has rejected the Department of Justice's request, meaning that the subsequent steps of the tariff refund process can be quickly initiated. The Federal Court of Appeals ruling clears the way for lower courts, the US International Trade Court, to initiate tariff refund-related legal proceedings. Justice Department lawyers estimate that the refund process may take years to complete. After the Supreme Court ruling, hundreds of additional companies filed tariff refund lawsuits, bringing the total number of tariff cases facing the Trump administration to over 2,000. Former US Treasury Secretary Yellen: Iran conflict makes the Fed more inclined to stand pat. Former US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that how long the Iranian conflict affects the oil market will determine how much impact it will have on US economic growth and how much inflationary pressure it will bring, making the Fed's job more complicated. Yellen, who formerly served as Fed chair, said in a video conference in Long Beach, California on Monday, "I think the recent Iran situation makes the Fed more hesitant and less inclined to cut rates than before." Yellen noted that the current inflation rate is already about one percentage point higher than the Fed's target. She said that President Trump's tariff policy has contributed about half a percentage point to the current 3% inflation rate. She said at the S&P Global, Inc. TPM26 Shipping Industry Conference, "Now we have the Iranian shock, oil prices have surged-we don't know what will happen in the coming days." Yellen said that if the Strait of Hormuz, through which a large amount of oil transport must pass through the region, remains closed for more than a few days, oil prices may remain high or even continue to rise. Safe-haven sentiment reverses bearish position, Allianz Investments re-evaluates the value of the dollar. Allianz Investments is considering buying the dollar, after betting on the US currency's depreciation for several months, as the Middle East conflict has restored its status as a safe-haven asset. Greg Hirt, Chief Investment Officer of the European asset management company's multi-asset strategy, responsible for overseeing assets of 580 billion (approximately $679 billion), said there are "good reasons to buy the dollar in the short term." On Monday, after Trump said that the bombing action against Iran could last for weeks, the dollar rose to a three-week high against a basket of currencies. Hirt said in an interview, "We still believe in the long-term trend of de-dollarization and the slow weakening of the dollar, but in the short term, we may have to return to a more neutral position." At the same time, Hirt said that after pressure on US stocks and an increase in US bonds last week, his view on US bonds has become "slightly more positive". Nasdaq enters the prediction market, planning to launch Nasdaq 100 index binary options. Nasdaq Inc. plans to introduce options contracts that allow betting on major stock indices with a "yes or no" question, becoming the latest exchange operator to enter the rapidly growing prediction market. According to a rule change proposal submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, the company hopes to list "binary options" on its flagship products, the Nasdaq 100 Index and the Nasdaq 100 Micro Index. The pricing of Nasdaq contracts will range between 1 cent and 1 dollar, reflecting the market's view on the likelihood of a particular outcome. This will be Nasdaq's first foray into such predictive market products. These so-called "event-related options" will allow traders to take binary positions on whether a specific event will occur. Binary options are simplified versions of options contracts, with the payout depending on the outcome of the "yes or no" proposition. Financial contracts listed in the prediction market industry cover sports, politics, and popular culture. Unlike event contracts regulated by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission such as Kalshi, Polymarket US, and CME Group Inc. Class A, binary options are regulated by the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Nasdaq's contracts are currently awaiting SEC approval. Stock News NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US)-backed "open" artificial intelligence startup Reflection AI attracts investors with a valuation exceeding $20 billion. Reflection AI, a "open" artificial intelligence startup backed by NVIDIA Corporation, is seeking to raise at least $2 billion in a new round of financing. According to sources, the company plans to raise at least $2 billion in a new round of financing, doubling its valuation from last October ($8 billion), when its valuation was only $545 million a year ago. The New York-based startup was founded by a former scientist at Alphabet Inc. Class C DeepMind, specializing in the development of open-source AI models, and is currently recruiting personnel who have worked on top models such as GPT-5 and Gemini. Its main competitors are Chinese companies such as Alibaba Group Holding Limited Sponsored ADR and DeepSeek (China has surpassed the US in the open-source AI market). Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) closes warehouses across Abu Dhabi and suspends delivery services. Due to continued turmoil in the Middle East region, Amazon.com, Inc. has closed its operational center in Abu Dhabi and suspended all delivery services in the region. Employees of Amazon.com, Inc. in Saudi Arabia and Jordan have been instructed to stay at home, with employees in the region transitioning to remote work. Business trips to Israel and Lebanon have been canceled, with no employee safety issues currently reported. This shutdown affects Amazon.com, Inc.'s entire logistics capability in the Middle East, with nearly 300,000 local third-party sellers facing delivery delays and the risk of order cancellations, as they rely heavily on Amazon.com, Inc.'s logistics to ship goods. In addition, the US-Iran conflict has led to a power outage at one of Amazon.com, Inc.'s data centers, with at least a day's repair time needed, and Amazon.com, Inc. has not specified the duration of the delivery suspension. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) CEO Musk's xAI to buy back $3 billion in debt before IPO. Musk's artificial intelligence company xAI is reportedly planning to repay $3 billion in junk bonds early. The company, which recently merged with SpaceX, is redeeming these bonds early, paying a premium of 117 cents on the dollar for each bond. The bonds, issued just last June, were originally intended to have a maturity of at least two years. The bond price has recently risen, surging about 3 percentage points on Monday, nearing 117 cents. Companies that retire debt early typically have to pay a premium and interest. xAI and its lead underwriter, Morgan Stanley, have not yet responded. Musk, with a net worth of $666 billion, plans to take SpaceX public in the coming months, with a possible IPO application submitted secretly as early as this month and a listing by June. The combined company has total debt of about $18 billion, coming from xAI and the acquisition of Twitter (later renamed X and incorporated into xAI). Banks are working on financing schemes to reduce the burden of high interest charges.