Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures all fell, with gold, silver, oil, and the US Dollar strengthening. At a time of escalating Middle East tensions, February non-farm payrolls and retailer financial reports are due to be released this week.

Pre-market market trends 1. On March 2nd (Monday), the pre-market of the US stocks, the futures of the three major stock indices of the US all fell. As of the time of this report, the Nasdaq futures fell by 1.19%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 1.06%, and Dow Jones futures fell by 1.39%. 2. As of the time of this report, the DAX index in Germany fell by 1.98%, the FTSE 100 index in the UK fell by 0.98%, the CAC 40 index in France fell by 1.63%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index fell by 1.93%. 3. As of the time of this report, WTI crude oil rose by 8.04% to $72.41 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 8.28% to $78.90 per barrel. Market news The Middle East conflict shook the global market! As of the time of this report, the futures of the three major US stock indices fell, major European stock indices were down, and most Asian stock markets fell on Monday. Gold spot prices rose by over 2%, silver spot prices rose by 1.6%; Brent crude oil futures and WTI crude oil futures both rose by over 8%; European natural gas futures rose by over 24%. Meanwhile, the rise in oil prices prompted traders to reduce bets on a Fed rate cut this year, and the strengthening of safe-haven sentiment boosted the US dollar index (DXY), which rose by 0.64% to 98.23 at the time of this report. In addition to gold, the US dollar was one of the few traditional safe-haven assets to rise on Monday, while US treasury, yen, and Swiss franc all declined. The two-year US Treasury bond yield sensitive to monetary policy rose by 0.86% to 3.408%, while the ten-year US Treasury bond yield rose by 0.13% to 3.963%. Amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, the US stock market enters a critical week: retail giants' earnings reports will test US consumer strength, can non-farm data allay "red light" warnings? Despite the explosive earnings report released by NVIDIA Corporation last week, it failed to calm concerns in the market about the continued volatility of AI investments. At the same time, a new round of sell-offs related to private credit indicates that the financial sector continues to face tremendous pressure. In the economic data calendar for the coming week, the US February non-farm payrolls report scheduled for Friday will be the highlight. Investors will also get the manufacturing data from S&P Global, Inc. and the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Monday, followed by ADP employment data on Wednesday and weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday. In addition, the key earnings report from chipmaker Broadcom Inc. will be closely watched as it will provide another window into AI demand. Several retailers' earnings reports will densely come out this week. Target Corporation (TGT.US) on Tuesday and Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST.US) at the opening on Thursday will lead the earnings reports for large stores and grocery stores, while other retailers releasing reports include Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST.US), Kroger Co. (KR.US), BJ's Wholesale Club Holdings, Inc. (BJ.US), and Macy's, Inc. (M.US). Not just rising to $80! Middle East conflict threatens key straits, Wall Street reintroduces the "hundred-dollar oil price theory". The US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, sparking concerns in the market about a broader conflict in the Middle East. The current focus of the market is on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway responsible for over one-fifth of global oil transport. After warnings from Iran not to pass through this strait, shipping sources reported that many oil tanker operators and energy companies have suspended the transportation of crude oil, fuel oil, and liquefied natural gas through the strait. Helima Croft, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, revealed that regional leaders have warned the US that a war involving Iran could push oil prices above $100 per barrel. Analysts at Dutch cooperative bank predicted a more restrained view, suggesting that oil prices could stay above $90 per barrel in the short term. Jorge Leon, economist at energy research firm Rystad Energy, analyzed that even with backup routes such as Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the infrastructure of the United Arab Emirates, a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz could still lead to a global daily reduction of 8 to 10 million barrels of oil supply. "Like the eve of the 2008 financial crisis," JP Morgan CEO warns that the market is falling into a "comfort illusion". Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, bluntly stated at the annual investor day on Monday that the current financial landscape bears striking similarities to the "false prosperity period" in the years leading up to the global financial crisis of 2008. He said, "This is unsettling - we've seen almost exactly the same scenario in 2005, 2006, 2007. When the tide is high, everyone benefits greatly, leverage is pushed to the limit, and market participants even think there is 'no ceiling'." He further warned, "My personal observation is that the market is falling into some kind of 'comfort illusion' - people are starting to believe that high asset prices and surging trading volumes are 'real and sustainable', and think that risk has disappeared. This cognitive bias is exactly why we remain highly cautious." Dimon's warning comes at a time of drastic changes in the global market - investors are selling across industries on fears that artificial intelligence could disrupt core business models. Within the financial industry, this structural challenge is particularly acute in the private credit market. Former CEO of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. warns: the potential crisis is approaching, a major reckoning is inevitable. Lloyd Blankfein, the former CEO of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. who steered the company through the 2008 financial crisis, has once again sounded the alarm. He warned that Wall Street is engaging in a new borrowing spree, and this time, they are pushing ordinary American depositors to the brink. He pointed out that the American Financial Group, Inc. system is slowly approaching another potential disaster, and ordinary Americans will be directly exposed to the risk of losses. He emphasized that these assets sold to the public are extremely difficult to evaluate and may hide unknown leverage, and it is extremely difficult to get rid of them in times of crisis. "When assets lack liquidity and are extremely opaque, we must remain vigilant. At the end of this credit cycle, we are on the brink, and a major reckoning is inevitable." Blankfein's concerns are not unwarranted. Currently, the $1.8 trillion private credit market is in turmoil. Several large asset management companies, including BlackRock, Inc., are suffering from bad loans. Last week, the UK bank-backed mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions was forced into bankruptcy on suspicion of fraud and asset-backed fraud. Individual stock news Impacted by the Middle East situation, defense and energy stocks led gains, while the tourism and leisure sector declined. Lockheed Martin Corporation, Devon Energy Corporation, Raytheon Technologies, Occidental Petroleum Corporation, etc. all rose by over 5% in pre-market trading; Carnival Corporation, Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd., Royal Caribbean Cruises, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Inc., etc. all fell by over 5%. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) delivered declined by 18% year-on-year in Denmark in February. Data released by the Danish Transport Association on Monday showed that in February, new Tesla, Inc. car registrations in Denmark declined by 18% year-on-year to 419 vehicles. While not a large number in the Danish market, in highly electrified Nordic countries, fluctuations in a single brand are often seen as market indicators. Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B (NVO.US) splurges over 400 million euros to upgrade Irish factory, aiming to increase global production capacity for Wegovy. Novo Nordisk A/S Sponsored ADR Class B will invest 432 million euros (507 million US dollars) to upgrade a factory in Ireland for producing its popular weight loss drug, Wegovy, for markets outside the US. The facility is expected to provide significant additional capacity for current and future obesity and diabetes medications. A spokesperson for the company confirmed the size of the investment. Will the Iran conflict further ignite aluminum prices? Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR (RIO.US) urgently halts negotiations on aluminum supply to Japan: offer of $250 premium price withdrawn. Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR has paused negotiations with Japanese customers on second-quarter aluminum supply, citing escalated hostilities in this key production region following US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Sources revealed that Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR (as one of the world's largest aluminum suppliers with smelters in Canada and Australia) has withdrawn the previously proposed premium of $250 per ton. The sources stated that Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR indicated that the impact of the Middle East conflict on metal prices was the reason for the change in the offer. Orange partners with AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US) and Vodafone Group Plc Sponsored ADR (VOD.US) to expand satellite direct-to-phone communication services. French telecom giant Orange announced on Monday a partnership with US satellite design and manufacturing company AST SpaceMobile and Satellite Connect Europe to promote the development of mobile direct satellite communication services. Orange announced plans to conduct demonstrations covering voice, SMS, and data services in Romania by the end of 2026. Satellite Connect Europe is a joint venture between AST SpaceMobile and Vodafone Group Plc Sponsored ADR (VOD.US), established in November last year with the aim of building a satellite constellation network in Europe and setting up an operations center in Germany to provide satellite direct smartphone communication applications for commercial and government sectors. Important economic data and events preview At 22:45 Beijing time: US February SPGI Manufacturing PMI final value At 23:00 Beijing time: US February ISM Manufacturing PMI Earnings forecasts Tuesday morning: MongoDB (MDB.US), Tuya, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (TUYA.US), Agora, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (API.US) Tuesday pre-market: Target Corporation (TGT.US), Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY.US)