Not just rising to 80! As the Middle East conflict approaches the vital Strait of Hormuz, Wall Street reiterates the "hundred-dollar oil price theory"

As the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran, sparking concerns of a wider conflict in the Middle East, international oil prices surged significantly on Monday, with analysts even warning that if key transportation routes were attacked, oil prices could further spike to reach $100 per barrel. Data shows that on Monday, Brent crude futures prices rose by about 13%, reaching a level of $82 per barrel. Last Friday, the benchmark oil price had already risen to $73 per barrel due to market expectations of military action, hitting a new high since July of this year. The market focus is currently on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that handles over a fifth of global oil transportation. After warnings from Iran not to pass through the strait, shipping sources say many oil tanker operators and energy companies have suspended the transportation of crude oil, fuel oil, and liquefied natural gas through the strait. Helima Croft, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, revealed that regional leaders have warned the US that a war involving Iran could push oil prices above $100 per barrel. Dutch cooperative bank analysts' forecasts are more restrained, suggesting that oil prices could stay above $90 per barrel in the short term. Jorge Leon, an economist at energy research firm Rystad Energy, analyzes that even with backup routes such as Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline and the UAE's infrastructure, a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz could still lead to a global daily reduction of 8 to 10 million barrels of oil supply. Meanwhile, OPEC+ reached an agreement last Sunday to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day starting from April next year. However, this increase is relatively moderate and falls short of global demand by 0.2%. Facing potential supply risks, governments and refineries in Asia are reviewing emergency reserves and alternative supply options. According to analysts at data analysis company Kpler, India may increase purchases of Russian oil to offset potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. Furthermore, the prediction market also shows strong bullish sentiment. According to data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of WTI oil prices being above $80 per barrel at the end of March is 77%, a 27 percentage point increase from before the weekend. Currently, WTI oil prices are around $70 per barrel, meaning prices could rise by over 14% by then. Additionally, the platform predicts that there is a 50% probability that oil prices will be above $90 per barrel on the last trading day of March. As the third-largest oil-producing country in OPEC, Iran's daily oil production is approximately 3.35 million barrels, closely following Iraq.