Goldman Sachs issued a warning: if the Strait of Hormuz is shut down for a month, natural gas prices in Europe could soar by 130%.

According to the analysis of Goldman Sachs Group, if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is stalled for a month, European natural gas prices could more than double. Led by Dan Struven, analysts at Goldman Sachs stated in a report on March 1 that the benchmark prices in Europe and Asia have yet to fully digest the risk premium associated with Iran. They pointed out that about one-fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas (primarily from Qatar) needs to pass through this key bottleneck; if the shutdown continues for a month, European prices and Asian spot liquefied natural gas prices could skyrocket by 130%, reaching $25 per million British thermal units (mmBtu). Analysts said, "Assuming a longer interruption in natural gas supply transit through the Strait of Hormuz, lasting over two months, could potentially push European natural gas prices to over 100 per megawatt-hour (MWh) (equivalent to $35 per mmBtu), triggering more severe disruption in global natural gas demand." Goldman Sachs said European natural gas prices may double or more. However, Goldman Sachs believes that the impact on US natural gas may be limited. The US is a large net exporter of this ultra-low temperature fuel, and due to its liquefaction plants usually operating at full capacity, there is very limited room for increasing shipment volumes.