CICC: Optimistic about the spring offensive in the lithium battery sector catalyzed by the warming demand and production cuts.

CICC released a research report stating that the proportion of battery production has significantly increased, coupled with post-holiday demand recovery and export rush. The fundamentals will enter a repair channel, and the pace of battery industry recovery may accelerate. Driven by the improvement in supply and demand relationship, the industry is optimistic about the spring offensive of the lithium battery sector under the triple resonance of demand: 1) Demand recovery leading to the repair of the main chain beta; 2) The continuous advancement of solid-state battery industrialization, with top battery manufacturers starting tenders for solid-state battery equipment and traditional lithium battery equipment; 3) The industry chain is experiencing mild inflation, with fundamental elasticity accelerating. CICC's main points are as follows: Post-holiday demand recovery coupled with export rush may increase the industry's demand recovery slope. Post-holiday, with the release of new cars and the intensification of the old-for-new policy driving, the industry believes that domestic demand for new energy vehicles is expected to revive. In addition, the reduction in export tax rebates in China and adjustment in US tariffs are expected to bring demand for lithium battery exports, further increasing the rate of recovery. According to information from Xinduo and industry surveys, the industry expects a month-on-month increase of 20-30% in battery production in March, with a year-on-year growth of 40-100%, showing a high slope of recovery trend. The trend of the solid-state battery industry is on the rise and is expected to resonate with the main chain. On one hand, solid-state batteries are highly compatible with space applications, and the industry believes that space solid-state batteries are expected to open up applications, further enhancing the valuation and market space of solid-state batteries. On the other hand, top battery manufacturers' tenders for solid-state pilot lines are gradually opening, and testing of solid-state batteries on vehicles is accelerating. The industry is optimistic about the clear pace of industrialization of solid-state batteries, with core equipment in the solid-state battery industry chain including dry electrode, isostatic pressing, and laser equipment; core materials such as sulfides, lithium metal negative electrodes, and current collectors are expected to benefit first. The entire industry chain is gradually starting to inflate, and the foundation's elasticity is expected to accelerate. The industry believes that driven by the improvement in supply and demand relationships, the industry chain will gradually enter a mild inflation trend in 4Q25: upstream materials will first see price reversals, with some sectors such as 6F, diaphragms, foil materials, and iron-lithium positive electrodes establishing turning points in fundamentals; after the rise in prices, the battery sector will also enter a repair channel. Risks Global sales of new energy vehicles fall short of expectations; global energy storage installation demand falls short of expectations; intensifying market price competition leads to profit decline; new technology industrialization progresses less than expected.