Hong Kong stock concept tracking | International oil prices surge! Brent crude oil soars 13% Institutions bullish on prices possibly reaching $100 per barrel (with concept stocks)

After the US and Israel attacked Iran, international oil prices surged, with Brent crude opening on Monday up 13% at $82 per barrel. According to CCTV News, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, was killed in the attack. The Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced on the evening of the 28th that any ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz would be prohibited. There are reports that with the halt of traffic of oil tankers and other ships through the Strait of Hormuz, the strait has effectively been closed. Barclays Bank analysts wrote on Saturday, "The oil market may have to face the worst situation on Monday. Given the current situation, we believe that Brent crude prices could reach $100 per barrel. The potential impact on the oil market cannot be overstated." According to reports from Xinhua News Agency and others, on the afternoon of February 28th Beijing time, Israel launched a preemptive strike against Iran, with the aim of eliminating the threat to Israel, under the code name "Roaring Lion." An Israeli government official stated that Israel is preparing for a four-day intensive and powerful joint offensive in the first phase. The US military also expects to conduct a multi-day operation against Iran. US President Trump stated on March 1st local time that military action against Iran could last for about four weeks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu made a speech, saying that in the coming days, Israel's attacks on Iran will be further intensified. With the death of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, the severity of the situation has exceeded expectations, not only because the joint US and Israeli attacks on OPEC member country Iran continue to unsettle global markets, but also because this could lead to a severe disruption in oil supply in the Middle East. Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, accounting for 3% of global production, making it the fourth largest OPEC oil producer. However, due to its strategic geographical location, the country's influence on global energy supply far exceeds its production size. Iran is located on one side of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of the world's crude oil is transported, mainly from key supply countries such as Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Real-time data from the International Oil Tanker Traffic Monitoring System shows that oil tanker speeds in the waters around the Strait of Hormuz have generally dropped to zero, indicating that shipping in the region has come to a standstill. Media tracking data shows that although the strait is still open, some oil tankers have chosen to reroute, leading to congestion on both sides of the strait entrance. Prior to this, the oil market has long been unconcerned about the risk of interruption in Middle East oil supply. Bob McNally, former White House energy advisor to President George W. Bush and analyst at Rapidan Energy, stated that traders have underestimated the threat that Iran's retaliatory actions could pose to the market. McNally suggested that Iran may try to intimidate President Trump by disrupting the commercial shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz, which could lead to oil prices surging above $100 per barrel. He also noted that the market has not fully grasped that Tehran has a large number of sea mines and short-range missiles, which could severely disrupt traffic in the waterway. McNally also stated that only a small portion of the crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz may be able to be rerouted. Saudi Arabia has an oil pipeline that stretches east-west across the country, connecting the eastern and Red Sea coasts. The UAE also has an oil pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz and ultimately reaches the Gulf of Oman. In a latest research report released on Saturday, Barclays Bank analysts warned that the global oil market could be at a turning point on Monday, with market risk sentiment rapidly escalating and international oil prices facing new uncertainties. The report pointed out that with multiple factors such as tightening supply, rising geopolitical risks, and strengthening market speculative sentiment, the crude oil market is in a highly sensitive stage. The analysts stated, "The oil market may have to face the worst situation on Monday." Based on the current market environment assessment, Barclays believes that there is a possibility for Brent crude prices to rise to $100 per barrel. The analysts emphasized that once oil prices touch or break through this important psychological barrier, the impact could extend far beyond the energy industry itself. "The potential impact on the oil market cannot be overstated." The report also noted that the current market focus is on the stability of crude oil supply, changes in inventory levels, and the policy direction of major oil-producing countries. If supply disruptions persist or demand expectations improve, the upward momentum in oil prices could further strengthen. At the same time, changes in financial market fund flows and speculative positions could also amplify short-term price fluctuations. Industry insiders believe that if Brent crude stabilizes above the $100 mark, it could trigger a revaluation of energy sector valuations and drive up prices of related commodities. Market participants widely expect that the next few trading days will be an important window for assessing the medium-term trend of oil prices. Investors are closely watching the trading performance after the market opens, as well as the upcoming inventory data and macroeconomic signals, to assess whether oil prices are entering a new upward cycle. Related stocks: PetroChina (00857): In the first three quarters of 2025, processed 1,040.6 million barrels of crude oil, up 0.4% year-on-year; produced 668.8 million tons of ethylene, up 5.2% year-on-year; and the quantity of chemical products reached 29.90 million tons, up 3.3% year-on-year. The refining, chemical, and new materials division continues to optimize plant operations and product structure, deepening the transformation and upgrading, gradually moving towards the middle and high end of the refinery-chemical-fine chemical industry chain, achieving operating profit of RMB 16.24 billion, an increase of 6.28% year-on-year, of which refining business achieved operating profit of RMB 14.53 billion, an increase of 22.68% year-on-year; chemical business achieved operating profit of RMB 1.87 billion, a decrease of 48.93% year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in prices of most chemical products and shrinkage of chemical business gross profit margin. CNOOC (00883): The company's oil and gas production is increasing rapidly, with a CAGR of 8.0% for crude oil production and 10.5% for natural gas production from 2021 to 2024. The company's planned production growth rates for 25-27 are 5.9%, 2.6%, and 3.8%, respectively, as the long-term production growth rates tend to stabilize. By 2024, the company's oil and gas equivalent reserves are 7.3 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and the value of reserve cash flow is still undervalued. In the first three quarters of 25, the company's main cost per barrel of oil was $27.35, down 2.8% year-on-year, much lower domestically compared to PetroChina, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and lower than ExxonMobil, Chevron, and Shell internationally, showing international competitiveness. China Oilfield Services (02883): In the first half of 25, the company achieved a drilling platform utilization rate of 93.4%, up 8ppt year-on-year, and a total asset turnover rate of 0.6 times, up 3% year-on-year; the company's equipment rental rate reached historic highs, with rental costs down 5%. The mother company, CNOOC, entering a new phase of capital expenditure in the "13th Five-Year Plan", is expected to bring steady workloads to the company's domestic business under the drive of stable production demand, and the drilling platform utilization rate may continue to remain at a high level. The company plans to gradually increase the coverage of its 26 system fees from 50% to 80%, and aims to reduce the total cost of unit workload by 2-5% year-on-year and increase the cost-to-profit margin by 0.2-0.5ppt year-on-year.