Hong Kong stocks concept tracking | The blockade of the Hormuz Strait may further increase the ocean shipping risk premium in the Middle East situation (with concept stocks)

Recently, after the US and Israel attacked Iran, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Several oil tanker owners and traders have temporarily suspended the transportation of crude oil, fuel, and liquefied natural gas through this strait. Industry insiders say that international tanker freight rates are experiencing a rare rapid increase, with tension in the Middle East potentially further raising risk premiums. According to data from the Baltic Exchange, as of February 26, the BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) VLCC TD3C route TCE (Time Charter Equivalent) was reported at $209,000 per day, reaching a new high since April 2020. In addition, Guosheng released a research report stating that on February 27, the shipping rate for 27,000-ton ships from Ras Tanura in the Middle East Gulf to Ningbo (CT1) was $209,352 per day, and from Malongo/Genoa in West Africa to Ningbo for 26,000-ton ships (CT2) was $224,195 per day. These data highlight the strong prosperity of the current VLCC shipping market. Industry experts generally believe that this round of rate increases is not only affected by a single factor, but is the result of multiple factors such as geopolitical tensions and structural shortages in shipping capacity. Wu Jialu, Chief Analyst at CITIC Futures, said: "Geopolitical factors make it difficult for market rates to effectively correct." It is still necessary to monitor the level and sustainability of tension between Israel and Iran, as well as whether the Strait of Hormuz can remain open for normal passage. Wu Jialu analyzed that on one hand, overall demand is stable, with good demand for long-haul routes, and expectations of rising oil prices may drive pre-import demand, but attention should be paid to the reverse inhibitory effect of high oil prices on demand; On the other hand, in addition to slow growth in VLCC capacity in the early stages, aging of vessels and other medium to long-term factors, short-term factors such as sanctioned oil tankers continue to increase in scale, and high oil storage capacity has marginally reduced market supply. Ding Zhenyu, Senior Investment Consultant at GF Futures, said that war insurance premiums and rerouted shipping routes due to geopolitical risks are the direct drivers of the rapid increase in rates in this round. The restructuring of global oil trade flows is a deeper structural variable. According to the data, supply tightness is not a short-term phenomenon. Data released by Clarkson shows that by the end of 2025, nearly 20% of VLCCs have a ship age exceeding 20 years, while VLCCs on order only account for 17.2% of the fleet. At the same time, it is expected that the effective capacity growth rate of VLCCs from 2026 to 2027 will be only 1% to 2%, significantly lower than the demand growth rate of 3% to 5%. The significant increase in demand comes mainly from the rise in oil shipping prices and the judgment of oil shipping companies on the expected rise in the market. In the short term, the tanker market will continue to face a situation of undersupply, and the price increase situation will still depend on the duration of geopolitical factors and the release period of shipping capacity, which is expected to ease by the end of 2027 to 2028. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial route for oil exports from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Qatar, and the UAE, with about one-fifth of global oil transportation passing through this strait. A significant amount of liquefied natural gas from Qatar is also transported through this strait. In addition to the oil shipping market, it is expected that there will be an increase in container shipping prices on Middle Eastern routes due to the situation. Some industry and freight forwarder personnel have stated that due to the situation in the Middle East, container shipping prices on Middle Eastern routes are expected to increase. Furthermore, there are reports that Houthi forces will resume attacks on the Red Sea shipping lane. On February 27th local time, major shipping company Maersk announced that due to unpredictable restrictions in the operating environment of the Red Sea region, certain voyages on the ME11 and MECL routes will be temporarily adjusted to round the Cape of Good Hope. In mid-January, Maersk had announced the return of the MECL route to the Suez Canal. Huayuan Securities released a research report stating that the future outlook for the Middle East situation is still complex, and if conflicts escalate, it may affect Iran and even Middle Eastern crude oil shipping. It is recommended to pay attention to the development of the situation. The strong performance of VLCC rates in the first quarter of 2026 may be driven by fundamental factors, supply-side restructuring, and geopolitical changes, three favorable trends. Related stocks: COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (01138): After many years of business restructuring and integration, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation has built a new integrated chain operation pattern for oil, gas, chemicals, and warehousing. Oil transportation is the company's core business, with the revenue share exceeding 80% over the past decade, with foreign trade crude oil and refined oil transportation business contributing the main profit elasticity, while domestic oil transportation and LNG transportation build the profit foundation. As of September 2025, in terms of unified tonnage capacity, oil tankers, LNG ships, chemical ships, and LPG ships account for 83.2%, 16.5%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively. SITC (01308): SITC announced that it expects the company's attributable unaudited profit for the year ending December 31, 2025 to be approximately USD 1.2 billion to USD 1.23 billion, an increase of about 16.0% to 18.9% from the year ending December 31, 2024. For the year ending December 31, 2025, the container shipping volume is approximately 3.85 million twenty-foot equivalent units, an increase of about 7.8% from the previous year, with an average freight rate (excluding income from slot swaps) of approximately USD 753.0 per container, an increase of about 4.4% from the previous year. COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919): COSCO Shipping Holdings announced that on January 13, 2026, the buyer (i.e., the Company's indirectly wholly-owned subsidiary China COSCO Shipping Asset Management) entered into shipbuilding contracts with the manufacturer (Zhoushan Heavy Industry) for the construction of six 3000 TEU container ships, each ship costing RMB 33 million, with a total price of RMB 198 million. OOIL (00316): OOIL announced that for the second quarter ending June 30, 2025, route revenue decreased by 6.5% compared to the same period last year, totaling USD 2.118 billion. Total cargo volume increased by 4.4%, carrying capacity increased by 7.5%. Overall load factor decreased by 2.4% from the same period in 2024, while the overall average revenue per standard container decreased by 10.4% from the second quarter of last year. For the first six months ending June 30, 2025, route revenue and total cargo volume increased by 4.4% and 6.8% respectively compared to the same period last year. Carrying capacity increased by 8.0%, with an overall load factor decreasing by 0.9% from the same period in 2024, and the overall average revenue per standard container decreased by 2.2% from the same period last year.