Middle East Supply Recovery Signal Grows Stronger, Abu Dhabi Plans to Increase Flagship Crude Oil Exports in April.

According to sources familiar with the matter, Abu Dhabi's flagship Murban crude oil is planning to increase its exports in April, further indicating that oil supply from key oil-producing countries in the region is strengthening. The sources stated that the state-owned enterprise, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc), has provided additional allocations to its onshore concession partners in the UAE. They mentioned that these companies have already sold some of the increased quantity to the spot market. In recent weeks, there have been signs of increased Middle East supply to the global oil market: both Saudi Arabia and Iran are expediting shipments due to concerns that the ongoing dispute between the US and Iran could hinder exports. Additionally, the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for this weekend may approve a resumption of production increases starting in April. It is currently unclear how much additional Murban crude Adnoc and its partners will provide, as well as how the increment will be distributed. Adnoc holds a 60% stake in the onshore concession (which has a production capacity of about 2 million barrels of Murban crude per day), with the remaining stake held by TotalEnergies, BP, PetroChina, INPEX Corporation, CNPC, and GS Energy. In the oil market, the price of Murban crude has fallen relative to global benchmarks Brent and Dubai crude this week, as some of the new supplies have been sold. Meanwhile, global benchmark Brent crude futures touched $72.61 per barrel on Thursday, the highest intraday price since July last year. Adnoc has previously adjusted its supply to the market, including during periods when OPEC+ changes production quotas to manage prices or regain market share. Some OPEC+ representatives have indicated that they expect the organization to agree on a moderate increase in supply growth before the weekend's meeting.