Dongxing: Pork prices fell before the festival, with a month-on-month decrease in January.

Dongxing released a research report stating that pig prices bottomed out at the end of December 25, rebounded, continued to rise until the middle and late January, and then stopped rising and began to decline. In February, pig prices broke the expectation of high levels before the new year, continued to decline, and as of February 10, the average price of live pigs in the country was 12 yuan per kilogram. The reversal of pig prices before the new year indicates a severe oversupply situation, with significant downward pressure on pig prices in the short term. After the new year, the bottoming out of pig prices is expected to lead to industry losses being cleared; the No. 1 Document of 26 promotes the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will implement a filing management system for pig production, the trend of refined policy regulation continues, and under the dual impact of policy and losses, the removal of production capacity is expected to accelerate gradually after the new year, and pig prices are expected to see a turning point for an upward trend in the second half of 26. Key points from Dongxing: Industry supply and demand performance: Pig prices rebounded in the peak season, with the average price in January warming up According to monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in January 2026, the average prices of piglets, live pigs, and pork were 25.38 yuan per kilogram, 13.18 yuan per kilogram, and 23.40 yuan per kilogram respectively, with changes of 8.44%, 7.50%, and 3.39% respectively compared to the previous month. Pig prices bottomed out at the end of December 25, rose until the middle and late January, and then stopped rising and began to decline. In February, pig prices broke the expectation of high levels before the new year, continued to decline, and as of February 10, the average price of live pigs in the country was 12 yuan per kilogram. Supply side: Large-scale farms slaughtered pigs in January at a normal pace, while small and medium-sized households slowed down, providing support for pig prices in January. The weak expectations after the Spring Festival brought about a concentrated slaughter before the festival, increasing the pressure on pig supply. Demand side: Spring Festival stocking gradually began in January, boosting the terminal market. However, there is significant profitability pressure on slaughterhouses, hindering the increase in operating rates and prices. In early February, the slaughterhouse operating rate saw a slight increase compared to the end of January, but still below the level of the same period in previous years. The Spring Festival falls late this year, with dispersed demand and insufficient support for terminal stocking. Trends in production capacity changes: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of the end of October 2025, the total number of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a decrease of 1.10% compared to the previous month, and this number further decreased to 39.61 million by the end of December. From data from three sources, the Yuncheng Yaye breeding stock sample data increased by 0.54% month-on-month in December, while the Gaolianglian sample data decreased by 0.22%, with a 1.19% month-on-month decline in production capacity for small and medium-sized households. The recent improvement in profits during the peak season has slowed down the pace of production capacity removal, but the trend towards removal remains unchanged, and the downward channel of production capacity has opened. Policy regulation combined with low prices, expected acceleration in production capacity removal Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that as of December 2025, the total number of breeding sows was 39.61 million, further reducing from the end of October. The No. 1 Document of 2026 emphasizes strengthening the comprehensive regulation of pig production capacity, and the trend of refined policy regulation continues in 2026. As of February 13, 2026, the average profit per self-bred and self-raised pig in the industry was -98.32 yuan per head, once again turning into a loss. Target recommendations It is recommended to focus on leading companies in the industry with high performance realization, such as Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ). Other benefiting targets include Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), DEKON AGR (02419), Tecon Biology Co.Ltd (002100.SZ), Yunnan Shennong Agricultural Industry Group (605296.SH), etc. January listed companies' sales data The average selling price increased month-on-month. In January, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology, and New Hope Liuhe achieved average selling prices for live pigs of 12.57, 12.75, 12.45, and 12.48 yuan per kilogram respectively, with month-on-month increases of 10.17%, 9.91%, 6.41%, and 10.64% respectively. The number of slaughter decreased month-on-month. In January, Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, New Hope Liuhe, and Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology sold 7.01 million, 2.96 million, 1.12 million, and 930,000 pigs respectively, with month-on-month changes of 0.42%, -35.05%, -37.98%, and -9.83% respectively. The average slaughter weight fluctuated. In January, the average slaughter weights for Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe were 119.93, 124.33, and 116.29 kilograms respectively. The companies that have published monthly slaughter weight data have shown fluctuating average slaughter weights, with an overall increase in average slaughter weight. Risk warning Listed companies' slaughter volume and cost control fall short of expectations, animal disease risks, etc.