"Elon Musk's faith" boosts SpaceX's valuation to the sky, and the narrative of a trillion-dollar valuation will also begin the "hardcore stress test".

Investing in Elon Musk's technology companies, whether it's Tesla, Inc., SpaceX, or xAI, which has already merged with SpaceX, is not so much about betting on financial fundamentals outperforming the market, but rather about placing trust in his personal vision for the future. The most typical example of the "Musk Faith" case is SpaceX, where investors are flocking to assets associated with SpaceX through Tesla, Inc. and the Destiny Tech 100 ETF, not just for today's satellite broadband empire and rocket launch business, but for future blueprints such as "1 million satellites, super large-scale space cloud servers powered by CECEP Solar Energy, a space orbit AI computing system, and even a moon satellite factory," and even for the long-term goal of a Kardashev II civilization, paying a high premium. SpaceX is considering going public in June (around Musk's birthday) with a possible financing amount of up to $50 billion, potentially making it the largest IPO in history. The expected highest valuation could reach $1.5 trillion, close to Tesla, Inc.'s $1.6 trillion. The combination of Tesla, Inc., SpaceX, and xAI forms the "Musk Super Business Empire," which may be the ultimate fate of these three companies founded by Musk. As the biggest bottleneck in global AI data centers shifts from "AI chips" to "power systems and deployment," SpaceX's narrative system of "sending data centers into space orbits and using CECEP Solar Energy to power them" is entering an engineering trial and error phase. The capital market urgently needs a larger and more stable capital pool and a more unified organizational boundary. In Musk's AI computing infrastructure plan, the next major leap in artificial intelligence may not occur on land, but in space, as the artificial intelligence boom faces increasing bottlenecks in infrastructure and energy supply. "Launching 1 million-ton satellites each year, with each satellite equipped with 100 kW of power, could add 100 gigawatts of artificial intelligence computing power annually, without any operating or maintenance costs, through high-bandwidth laser connections to the Starlink constellation. Furthermore, a satellite factory could be built on the moon, and using a mass driver (electromagnetic railgun) to accelerate artificial intelligence satellites to lunar escape velocity without the need for rockets brings artificial intelligence computing power to over 100 terawatts annually and takes humanity a significant step toward a Kardashev II civilization," Musk recently replied to fans in a post on X. With Musk's recent frequent releases about space AI data centers, large-scale energy storage, artificial intelligence, fully autonomous driving (FSD), Robotaxi, and innovative "Optimus" humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, it seems that the world's richest man is stringing together a "super vertical integrated asset chain" that can be financed and explained, aiming to leverage both the capital market and the industry. Unifying global investment themes such as "AI, communication, space, energy, Siasun Robot & Automation" into a "full-stack infrastructure platform" could significantly help with the pricing of a large-scale SpaceX IPO, raising Tesla, Inc.'s valuation, early to mid-term IPO roadshows, and investor structure. SpaceX plans to launch an astonishing 1 million satellites, which will serve as a distributed space-level cloud computing super server system. These orbit data centers in space are said to use CECEP Solar Energy to handle massive artificial intelligence workloads. Musk believes that to achieve this goal, a super satellite factory must be built on the moon, accelerating AI super satellites with a mass driver to lunar escape velocity without the need for rockets. Undoubtedly, Musk's sky-high visions, reminiscent of Hollywood sci-fi movies, will require substantial cash and the potential SpaceX initial public offering (IPO) is a significant source of funding, potentially setting a record for the largest fundraising in the history of space exploration leaders in the US stock market. The emerging market dominance of SpaceX faces a "investor loyalty test" and durability test. From a core business perspective, SpaceX is now a profitable satellite communication and space exploration rocket launch company, with significant advantages over potential competitors. According to information from two knowledgeable sources, Musk's unicorn space exploration company achieved approximately $8 billion in EBITDA last year, with total sales of approximately $15 billion to $16 billion. Its satellite-based high-speed broadband business Starlink accounts for 50% to 80% of total sales. For a space exploration company with 10 million users globally, largely acting as a large broadband provider, a hidden group profit margin of about 50% is impressive. Taking into account the most realistic $1 trillion valuation based on SpaceX's recent initial valuation when merging with Grok AI chat, developer of Siasun Robot & Automation the company seems to be preparing to capture a significant market share in the telecommunications market. However, some Wall Street analysts believe that satellite connectivity systems supplement traditional network infrastructure rather than replace it. In developed markets, most consumers find fixed-line broadband connections sufficient for their home needs, with 4G and 5G available everywhere outside. The demand for satellite broadband services comes from populations and areas that telecom giants have difficulty covering. This is not a small market, but it may become overcrowded in the mid-term. Amazon.com, Inc., the leader in cloud computing and e-commerce, recently obtained approval from the US Federal Communications Commission to increase its planned satellite constellation by an additional approximately 4,500 satellites on top of the already-launched approximately 200 satellites, bringing the total to just under 8,000. The entire satellite constellation is expected to be fully operational by 2029. Meanwhile, China is also building its own two large-scale low Earth orbit networks: one for governmental and security purposes and the other for international-market customers, with a planned total number of satellites reaching tens of thousands. For Starlink, the most feasible way forward may be to continue to scale up the "satellite internet direct-to-terminal capability" in partnership form (similar to T-Mobile's satellite as a last-layer coverage product) and introduce stronger self-operated satellite internet services in certain scenarios (extreme outdoor, emergency, military, government, maritime, remote areas). However, to elevate SpaceX's valuation, Starlink strives to transition from a "satellite broadband business" to a "global communication platform for mobile terminals": continuing to cater to operators (direct satellite communication phones/supplemental coverage) on the B-end, while exploring stronger C-end service leverage potentially launching a widely available "Starlink exclusive smartphone" for C-end users to access the internet directly. Although SpaceX's entry into the market with a substantial monopoly position in satellite communication and potential space AI data centers, its well-funded competitors have the ability and resources to erode Musk's competitive advantages. For example, China's commercial space program has support from multiple national entities, potentially increasing its chances of success. As for Amazon.com, Inc., the design of its user terminals is cost-effective, and if it passes on these cost savings to consumers, it could challenge Starlink at a lower price and gain a foothold in the market. Musk's recent involvement in political affairs also appears to set a theoretical upper limit on the scale of Starlink government and defense business, at least beyond its domestic market. In February 2025, media reports indicated that US negotiators had used Starlink access as a bargaining chip in trying to secure a key mining agreement with Ukraine. Although Musk denied these claims on X, the event obviously unsettled Ukraine's European allies, who are seeking sovereign alternatives to this satellite service. In light of this, France invested $1.6 billion last summer in Eutelsat Communications, the operator of the OneWeb constellation. The French government is now the largest shareholder of the group, which owns approximately 600 satellites in low Earth orbit. Germany and Italy have also shown interest in establishing their own constellation systems for secure government and military communications. If Musk and the US are still seen as reliable partners, these kinds of initiatives by European countries may not even come to the table. The threat to Starlink's continued dominance may also come from within. Musk's merger of xAI with this rocket and satellite company recently exposed SpaceX to new regulatory and financial risks. According to a document seen by sources, xAI recorded a net loss of $1.5 billion in the three months ending September 2025 and burned approximately $8 billion in cash in the first nine months of the year. This makes it more crucial for the post-merger group to push for revenue and profit growth at Starlink. Regulatory risks also exist, as multiple jurisdictions are investigating xAI, which previously generated and disseminated explicit pornographic images on the social network X. With various negative noises surrounding the company and limited financial disclosures, its valuation has become challenging. Assuming that 70% of the recent $1 trillion merger valuation of SpaceX is attributable to Starlink's revenue prospects (roughly matching its sales contribution), it means that the valuation of this satellite business is a staggering $700 billion. Analysts at Quilty Space estimated that Starlink will bring in approximately $16 billion in revenue and $11 billion in EBITDA this year. If the enterprise value is $700 billion, this implies a projected market-to-sales ratio of 44x and an EBITDA multiple of 64x. This is roughly in the same range as the current valuation of Palantir Technologies (PLTR.US) on the US stock market, facing an extreme heat of the market and a "kill valuation" selloff crisis according to Visible Alpha data, its corresponding valuation multiples are equivalent to 42 times revenues in 2026 and 72 times EBITDA in 2026, therefore, this is entirely different from the single-digit multiples of telecom groups such as Eutelsat, T-Mobile US(TMUS.US), and Verizon Communications(VZ.US). Indeed, compared to Starlink, these traditional communication groups have almost no significant growth. This to some extent could give Musk's business a more Palantir-like valuation multiple. Even so, making these numbers work is still difficult. According to analysts' long-term forecasts incorporating growth expectations, Palantir's valuation is slightly below 18x its projected EBITDA for 2030. If this multiple is applied to Starlink, that means that in order to support the $700 billion enterprise value of this business sector, SpaceX's satellite business must achieve approximately $39 billion in EBITDA by 2030. On the other hand, Wall Street financial giant Morgan Stanley, who is optimistic about SpaceX in the long term, believes that by 2030, Starlink's total revenue could reach nearly $50 billion, which, calculated with a 50% profit margin, corresponds to $25 billion in EBITDA. While this is impressive, it is still far below the level needed to support such a sky-high valuation. Moreover, Morgan Stanley's forecasts appear to be somewhat of a "blue-sky optimistic scenario." Even if Musk successfully propels a trillion-dollar stock market debut, it does not guarantee a smooth journey thereafter. Will the "faith premium" push Tesla, Inc. and the upcoming SpaceX IPO into a "super bull market"? Investing in Musk's companies is often not about pricing based on current profit statements but rather about pricing based on the strong faith supported by various "cyber technology" forces and the probability of realizing the "sci-fi-like vision + Musk's execution capability." This is why the "Musk Faith" in the capital market often leads to higher valuations: Many investors see Tesla, Inc. as an AI, Siasun Robot & Automation, and autonomous driving super platform rather than a traditional car company; whereas SpaceX is seen as a combination of satellite communication, national defense infrastructure, space orbit AI computing power, and rocket platform rather than just a space launch company. Even though a large part of Tesla, Inc.'s revenue still comes from its sluggish electric car business, the high valuations given by investors are mainly anchored in AI-driven FSD, Robotaxi, and Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation. Some analytical frameworks even attribute the majority of Tesla, Inc.'s future value to Siasun Robot & Automation and the yet-to-be completely commercialized autonomous driving service. In other words, what the market buys in Musk's companies is often the imaginative "next-generation platform-level gateway," rather than the static valuation of the current business. The market's investment in Musk's companies is often driven by the imagination of the "next generation platform-level gateway" rather than the static valuation of the current business. The "Musk Faith" can be a spark plug in a bull market, but it is not a perpetual motion machine. The "Musk Faith" can fuel significant valuation expansions and fundraising capabilities, but whether the stock price can stay in a long-term super bull market ultimately depends on whether the vision continues to new verifiable milestones. The current "investor loyalty and durability test" that SpaceX faces is typical: Amazon.com, Inc.'s Kuiper, China's low-orbit satellite network, European sovereign alternative solutions are all eroding Starlink's near-monopoly position; based on preliminary valuation estimates, if Starlink corresponds to an approximate $700 billion valuation, it may need to achieve about $39 billion in EBITDA by 2030 to sufficiently support this valuation, significantly higher than some optimistic forecasts. In other words, faith can elevate valuations initially, but performance and competition will determine whether it can stay aloft. If SpaceX pushes forward with an IPO around a $1.5 trillion valuation, it will likely replicate this pricing method of "realistic monopoly position + ultra-long-term sci-fi narrative." However, similarly, once the technology lags behind expectations, regulatory resistance increases, competitors catch up, or political and governance controversies surrounding Musk raise risk premiums, faith can quickly shift from a "super premium" to a "super volatile" state.