JP Morgan: Surprised but not concerned by the Hong Kong government's increase of over 100 million in stamp duty on luxury homes, described as a redistributive fiscal policy.

Morgan Stanley issued a research report stating that they were surprised by the increase in the stamp duty rate on properties worth over 100 million in the 2026/27 fiscal budget. While the headline may seem negative, the bank expressed that they are not too concerned as this will only affect 0.3% of transactions, with only 169 transactions exceeding 100 million in value in 2025; from the perspective of super-rich property buyers, the added cost (2.25%) may be insignificant, mainly because the increase in property prices can cover this cost in just one or two months; the objective of this policy is not to suppress the real estate market, but rather to redistribute wealth, by taxing the super-rich to subsidize low-income groups. The bank pointed out that this may even trigger a stronger "fear of missing out" (FOMO) sentiment, especially for buyers of properties valued between 50 million to 99 million, who may worry about having to pay higher stamp duty in the future. The bank stated that after the news was announced, this sector saw a 1% to 2% decline, and they believe this could be an excuse for profit-taking after a strong performance since the beginning of the year. The bank mentioned that the most promising developers currently include SHK PPT (00016), HENDERSON LAND (00012), and SINO LAND (00083); while rental stocks include HANG LUNG PPT (00101) and SWIRE PROPERTIES (01972).