Hong Kong stock concept tracking | Zimbabwe suspends export of lithium concentrate and ore, lithium carbonate contracts soar (with concept stocks)

On February 26th, Beijing time, the main lithium carbonate futures contract hit the daily limit up, now trading at 185,000.00 yuan. Zimbabwe has suspended the export of lithium concentrates and ores in order to promote mining companies to establish processing operations in the country. The Zimbabwean Minister of Mines announced on Wednesday that the export ban is immediately effective until further notice. Governments in various African countries have been trying to force mining companies to refine minerals locally in order to derive greater economic benefits from their resources. According to official data, Zimbabwe has one of the largest lithium reserves in Africa and is one of the leading producers globally, with an estimated resource of 126 million tons. The Zimbabwean Minister of Mines stated that the ban will only be lifted if the miners comply with government requirements. Last year, the country announced a ban on the export of lithium concentrates by 2027, as part of efforts to encourage foreign mining companies to develop refining operations locally. The latest report from the US Geological Survey forecasts that Zimbabwe's lithium production in 2025 will be 28,000 tons (lithium content basis), ranking behind Argentina, China, and Chile. UBS believes that the market has entered the third super cycle of lithium prices, and the sustained supply-demand gap will support prices significantly higher than market consensus. The forecast price of lithium spodumene in 2026 was raised by 74% to $3131 per ton, and the price of lithium carbonate was adjusted to $26,000 per ton. This is based on the achievement of "triple parity" in electric vehicles and the surge in energy storage demand, with global demand expected to double to 3.4 million tons by 2030. Hong Kong-listed companies related to lithium mines: Ganfeng Lithium Group (01772): The company holds a 50% stake in the Goulamina lithium spodumene project in Zimbabwe, which is large in scale and has a beneficiation plant. Although the main output is concentrates, Ganfeng has strong blending capabilities and downstream conversion capacity globally. As a global leader in the lithium industry, Ganfeng has strong control over upstream resources. If its Zimbabwe project already has processing capacity that meets the new regulations (or can adjust quickly), it will directly benefit from the rebound in lithium prices caused by supply contraction. In addition, its large inventory and diversified sources (Australia, Argentina, etc.) can hedge against risks in a single region. Tianqi Lithium Corporation (09696): Tianqi's core assets are in Australia (Greenbushes) and Chile (SQM), but its global supply chain management capabilities are strong. Tianqi itself has a small direct exposure in Zimbabwe, mainly driven by the macro bullishness of rising lithium prices. The ban in Zimbabwe will reduce global marginal supply, support the prices of lithium carbonate/hydroxide, and improve Tianqi's profit expectations. Zijin Mining Group (02899): By 2025, Zijin Mining Group's lithium carbonate resources reached 18.7 million tons, ranking 10th globally in equivalent lithium carbonate production. The latest plan shows that Zijin Mining Group aims to achieve an equivalent lithium carbonate production target of 120,000 tons by 2026; by 2028, this number will soar to 270,000 to 320,000 tons.