CITIC SEC: Zimbabwe suspends lithium exports, expected to drive lithium prices significantly higher.

CITIC SEC releases a research report stating that on February 25th, the Ministry of Mines in Zimbabwe issued a ban on lithium ore exports. This policy aims to strengthen mineral regulation and promote the development of deep processing of mineral products. In 2025, 19% of China's imported lithium concentrate comes from Zimbabwe. We estimate that by 2026, Zimbabwe's lithium resource production will account for 12% of the global total. The country's ban on lithium ore exports will lead to a short-term shortage in the supply of lithium carbonate in China, potentially driving up the price of lithium significantly. It is recommended to focus on targets that are not affected by export policies. Zimbabwe suspends lithium ore exports to promote deep processing of minerals According to SMM and Mysteel, on February 25th, the Ministry of Mines in Zimbabwe announced the immediate suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports (including goods in transit). Only mining companies holding mining rights certificates and approved deep processing capacity for mineral products can obtain export authorization. According to this regulation, exports of lithium carbonate in Zimbabwe are still not affected. The Ministry of Mines in Zimbabwe stated that this policy aims to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability, promote the development of deep processing of mineral products, and maximize the retention of mineral value within Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe's ban on lithium ore exports was hinted at earlier, and it may increase the concentration of the local lithium mining industry in the future On June 10, 2025, the Ministry of Mines in Zimbabwe announced that from January 2027, the export of lithium concentrate will be banned, and mining companies are required to build lithium salt smelting capacity locally. We believe that the Zimbabwean government's temporary suspension of lithium concentrate exports is to further urge leading mining companies to sign contracts for local factory construction, increasing industrial added value. We expect that before the construction of lithium salt smelting capacity is completed, the government will open export windows for leading mining companies. Traders without valid mining permits or small-scale mine owners will be excluded, which will raise the threshold for lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe and increase industry concentration, benefiting Chinese mining companies operating in Zimbabwe. In 2026, Zimbabwe's lithium production is estimated to account for about 12% of the global total, and the export ban will drive lithium prices significantly higher According to USGS, Zimbabwe's lithium resource production in 2025 was 28,000 metric tons, accounting for about 10% of the global lithium resource production. The destination of Zimbabwe's lithium ore and lithium concentrate exports is mainly China. According to the General Administration of Customs of China, China's total lithium ore imports in 2025 were 7.75 million tons (equivalent to 790,000 tons of LCE), with 1.2 million tons (equivalent to 150,000 tons of LCE) imported from Zimbabwe, accounting for 19% of the total imports. According to the expansion plans announced by Zimbabwean lithium mining companies, we estimate that Zimbabwe's lithium production will be 235,000 tons in 2026, accounting for about 12% of the global lithium resource production in 2026. With downstream demand entering the peak season, according to SMM, China's lithium salt inventory remains low. We expect that before the ban on lithium ore exports in Zimbabwe is lifted, the short-term shortage of lithium carbonate supply in China will worsen, and lithium prices are expected to rise significantly. Under the wave of resource nationalism, strategic metals such as lithium may continue to experience supply disruptions In recent years, resource-rich countries for metals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and tin have successively issued resource control policies, such as Myanmar's ban on tin mining, the Congo's ban on cobalt exports, Indonesia's significant reduction in nickel ore production quotas, and Zimbabwe's ban on lithium ore exports. Against the backdrop of a global wave of resource nationalism and the narrative of key mineral rights in the context of the US-China rivalry, we expect resource-rich countries of strategic metals to continue to have sudden policy changes that disrupt the supply of relevant metals.