Early-Year Test: Hong Kong Faces Large-Scale Share Unlocking In February–March, What Is The Impact?

At the outset of the Bingwu Year, Hong Kong’s equity market opened amid expectations of a strong start, yet some listed companies entered the new year with heightened caution. As a number of issuers approach the one‑year anniversary of their listings in February and March, the market is preparing for a significant wave of restricted‑share unlockings that has attracted close attention.

Wind data indicate that several companies scheduled for unlockings will see proportions of unlocked shares that are extremely high relative to total issued capital, with multiple issuers facing ratios in excess of 50%. The prospective release of such a large tradable share supply raises questions about potential pressure on individual securities and broader market dynamics.

According to Wind and public disclosures, Mirxes‑B (02629.HK), Vison Pharmaceuticals (02561.HK), Different Group (06090.HK), Nanshan Aluminium International (02610.HK), Shubao International (02569.HK) and Jiangsu Hongxin (02625.HK) each have unlocking volumes that exceed 50% of total share capital. A second tier of companies also faces material unlocking pressure, including Mixue Group (02097.HK), Tianyue Advanced (02631.HK) and Baize Medical (02609.HK), with unlocking ratios of 34.58%, 31.50% and 25.20% respectively. Most of these issuers listed in the first quarter of 2025, making the first quarter of 2026 the natural window for their one‑year lock‑up expiries.

The magnitude of actual selling pressure will vary by issuer. Mirxes‑B has announced lock‑up commitments from co‑founders Zhu Xingfen, Zhou Lihan and Zou Ruiyang, who together hold 68.94 million shares and have pledged not to sell for twelve months from February 23, 2026. Cornerstone investor Beijing Xunrui Enterprise Management has committed to retain at least 80% of its 16.6492 million shares during the same period. Our calculations show that founder holdings account for 42.19% of the 163 million shares subject to unlocking, while the cornerstone investor’s retention covers roughly 8.15% of the unlocking volume; combined, these commitments represent about 50.34% of the unlocked shares, leaving nearly half of the unlocking volume—approximately 27.58% of total issued capital—potentially available to the market. Such a proportion could exert downward pressure on the share price.

For Nanshan Aluminium International, the bulk of unlocking shares are attributable to the majority shareholder Nanshan Aluminium Investment, which holds 56.97%, followed by the second‑largest shareholder PMIRHK. Disclosures indicate that Nanshan Aluminium International contributed more than 90% of the associate profit share for the second‑largest shareholder in 2024, and that the associate contribution accounted for approximately 17.05% of pre‑tax profit and 23.37% of post‑tax attributable profit in the first three quarters of 2025. These intercompany profit linkages suggest that both the majority and second‑largest shareholders may have limited incentives to execute large‑scale disposals, given the importance of Nanshan Aluminium International to their earnings.

An often‑overlooked metric is the ratio of unlocked shares to the existing free float. Wind estimates show that Jiaxin International Resources (03858.HK), Aux Electric (02580.HK), Daxing Technology (02543.HK), Jingfang Pharmaceuticals (02595.HK), Chery Automobile (09973.HK), Zijin Gold International (02259.HK) and Botai Carlink (02889.HK) will see unlocked volumes equivalent to more than 24% of their current free float, with Botai Carlink, Zijin Gold International and Chery Automobile exceeding 70%. For issuers with a small free float, even modest unlocking proportions can dramatically expand tradable supply and create short‑term imbalances; Botai Carlink’s unlocking, for example, is estimated at about 77.19% of its free float, effectively nearly doubling the tradable shares and raising the risk of acute downward pressure if shareholders concentrate sales.

Most of the unlocking shares originate from pre‑IPO investors rather than from refinancing issuances. Pre‑IPO holders—founders, early‑stage venture capital, private equity and strategic backers—typically possess cost bases well below the issue price, which can create strong incentives to monetize gains at the earliest opportunity, particularly for financial investors facing fund maturities. By contrast, shares introduced through post‑listing refinancing are often held by institutional investors with cost bases closer to market prices and strategic motivations that reduce their propensity to sell.

In the near term, the unlocking wave may affect market sentiment and liquidity. High unlocking ratios can trigger panic selling, especially in small‑cap or loss‑making issuers, and concentrated disposals can absorb available market liquidity, producing short‑term price weakness. The impact will be heterogeneous: issuers with shareholder lock‑up commitments, such as Mirxes‑B, should experience materially reduced selling pressure; issuers whose major shareholders are deeply aligned with company interests, such as Nanshan Aluminium International, are less likely to face significant disposals; and issuers with very small free floats, such as Botai Carlink and Zijin Gold International, may suffer pronounced volatility even if their unlocking ratios are not the largest in absolute terms.

Over the medium term, unlockings can facilitate shareholder structure optimization and accelerate industry differentiation. The release of shares may dilute concentrated ownership, broaden the investor base and improve governance transparency. Unlocking events also function as valuation tests: high‑quality issuers may attract institutional support and sustain stable prices or even draw long‑term capital, whereas lower‑quality issuers may experience sustained declines as shareholders exit and capital flees.

In the long run, the effect of unlocking will fade, and company valuations will be determined by fundamentals, growth prospects and sector conditions. Regardless of unlocking ratios, issuers that deliver consistent earnings growth and possess clear competitive advantages should see their share prices appreciate over time, while those lacking profitability or core strengths will struggle to maintain valuation even in the absence of unlocking pressure.