CMSC: North America initiates photovoltaic production expansion, domestic benefit emphasizes the importance of auxiliary materials in the supply chain.

CMSC releases research report, stating that Musk announced at the Davos Forum that Tesla and SpaceX will each build 100GW of photovoltaic capacity in the United States within three years. This round of expansion in North American photovoltaics will bring about a reevaluation of the value of related domestic materials, equipment, and leading manufacturing companies, especially focusing on the opportunity for materials, which is strong in sustainability and has minimal technological divergence. Ground materials have high certainty, while the space materials market has great potential; at the same time, companies with core patents are also expected to benefit. Key points from CMSC: Musk announced at the Davos Forum that Tesla and SpaceX will each build 100GW of photovoltaic capacity in the United States within three years. North American ground expansion is expected to adopt mature Chinese technology and material supply chain, while space equipment and materials will need targeted development and design, with significantly higher value than ground applications. This round of expansion in North American photovoltaics will bring about a reevaluation of the value of related domestic materials, equipment, and leading manufacturing companies, especially focusing on the opportunity for materials, which is strong in sustainability and has minimal technological divergence. North America will launch photovoltaic manufacturing capacity expansion. Tesla and SpaceX have both expressed plans to build 100GW of domestic photovoltaic capacity in the next 3 years. With the dual stimulation of tariff protection and FEOC subsidies, eligible North American photovoltaic capacity is expected to achieve exceptionally high returns. In recent years, the U.S. has seen continuous growth in newly installed photovoltaic capacity, with an estimated 40-50GW in the next 25 years. Considering natural growth and future demand from data centers, North American ground photovoltaics are expected to support demand at the 100GW level; although the demand for photovoltaics in low-orbit satellites is currently small, it is rapidly growing, and space photovoltaics may also become a significant market in the future. North American ground photovoltaics will bring opportunities to Chinese related supply chains, while space solutions are still evolving. Industry feedback suggests that SpaceX's current plan may lean towards the P-HJT route, while perovskite and perovskite stacking are also actively being explored, and HJT and perovskite equipment manufacturers are expected to benefit. Additionally, considering the complex space environment, there are higher requirements for ultra-thin silicon wafers and module packaging in related areas. In terms of North American ground photovoltaics, economical options may include N-type TOPCon, but patents and processes are controlled by Chinese companies, and companies that hold the core patents for TOPCon are expected to share the rewards. Furthermore, Tesla has publicly stated its intention to expand production from raw materials, so silicon wafer and silicon material equipment suppliers are also expected to benefit. The ground materials chain benefits from high certainty and sustainability, while the space materials market is significantly inflating with vast future potential. TeslaSolarcity has had long-term collaborations with domestic material companies, and it is likely that their ground photovoltaic expansion will continue to use the existing supply chain. Due to the strict restrictions imposed on the Chinese supply chain by FEOC, light-asset materials such as paste, film, and junction boxes may gradually be supplied by North American factories; meanwhile, companies with mature production capabilities overseas will have a competitive advantage in glass and frame production. Given the extreme space environment, materials and systems for space applications will need substantial upgrades, likely leading to significant inflation. UTG glass/CPI film and silicone are important packaging materials, with the long-term market space possibly reaching hundreds of billions of RMB. The metallization of crystalline silicon route is heavily dependent on paste, with usage and processing costs far exceeding those on the ground. Companies with patents and a history of collaboration are expected to benefit. Risks: Development of commercial aviation/space computational power lower than expected, technological iterations, geopolitical risks, etc.