Guolian Minsheng Securities: "Old for New" policy continues, 2026 replacement + export demand dominates commercial vehicles.

Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that in 2025, the demand for heavy trucks is expected to achieve high growth throughout the year driven by the "scrappage for new" policy, and in 2026, the demand will stabilize and recover steadily supported by the replacement demand for National IV and National V standards. Export growth outside of Russia will continue to be strong, and the penetration of new energy vehicles will accelerate. It is optimistic about leading companies that have comprehensive advantages in "going overseas, new energy, and industrial chain". In terms of buses, 2025 will see a characteristic of domestic demand bottoming out and exports leading. In 2026, domestic demand will gradually recover under the support of public transport renewal policies, and the overseas penetration of new energy buses will accelerate. It is optimistic about top companies with strong export profit capabilities and advantages in products and channels. Guolian Minsheng Securities' main points are as follows: Review of Heavy Trucks in 2025 Policy-driven demand recovery for heavy trucks, continued growth in exports, and optimized structure. In terms of total volume, the wholesale sales volume of heavy trucks in 2025 was 1.144 million units, a year-on-year increase of 26.8%. In terms of structure, domestic sales of heavy trucks in 2025 were 0.799 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32.7%. The demand for heavy trucks in China recovered steadily under the "scrappage for new" policy, with exports showing strong growth, reaching 0.341 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%. Southeast Asia and the Middle East have become core growth drivers for exports. Outlook for Heavy Trucks in 2026 The expansion of new energy heavy trucks will accelerate, and Asia and Africa will become the main driving forces for export growth. In terms of total volume, the heavy truck industry has ended a three-year low and is in a new upward cycle. The "scrappage for new" policy is expected to continue, and the demand for replacement elimination is expected to maintain the basic level of domestic demand. On the export side, exports to Russia have cooled down, strong demand in non-Russian regions, and the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa have become core growth markets; in terms of structure, the proportion of diesel heavy trucks is significantly decreasing, natural gas heavy trucks are expected to maintain steady growth, and new energy heavy trucks are expected to lead sales growth. Review of Buses in 2025 Steady recovery of domestic demand, high export growth driving a new cycle. In terms of total volume, the bus industry has entered a new cycle of "domestic demand bottoming out and high export growth". In 2025, the wholesale sales volume of large and medium buses was 0.122 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. Among them, domestic sales of large and medium buses were 0.065 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 10.6%, and export sales of large and medium buses were 0.059 million units, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%. In terms of structure, the seat bus market is under short-term pressure but has bottomed out, and the bus market is performing strongly under the drive of the "scrappage for new" policy. The export performance is excellent, with 15,000 new energy large and medium buses exported in the whole year of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%; and 44,000 fuel buses exported in the whole year of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%. Outlook for Buses in 2026 Domestic demand continues to grow, and overseas markets accelerate penetration. In terms of total volume, domestic demand for buses will continue to steadily increase. It is expected that the wholesale sales volume of large and medium buses in the industry in 2026 will be 0.146 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%, and export sales will be 0.078 million units, a year-on-year increase of 32.0%. In terms of structure, seat buses are expected to gradually recover with the warming of the tourism market, and bus buses are driven by the "scrappage for new" policy. In terms of exports, Europe and Latin America will be core incremental markets, and the trend of accelerated overseas penetration of new energy large and medium buses is clear. The Securities firm expects that the export sales volume of new energy large and medium buses in 2026 will be 20,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 34.0%. Risk warnings: Reduction of commercial vehicle policy subsidies; global commercial vehicle demand lower than expected; overseas policy influencing offshore sales and profits; material price fluctuations exceeding expectations.