Customs ruling sparks a rush to safe havens: trade agreements in chaos, gold briefly breaks the $5170 level.

Due to the limit of tariff power by the United States Supreme Court on President Trump, the future of trade negotiations with the United States is uncertain, causing market unrest and an increase in gold prices. At the same time, the prospect of Iran-US nuclear negotiations is affecting the oil market. The price of gold rose by 1.3%, surpassing $5170 per ounce. After the Supreme Court ruled that Trump did not have the power to impose emergency tariffs, Trump announced last Saturday that he would impose 15% tariffs globally to retain protective trade measures. This ruling led to a weakening of the dollar, making gold cheaper for many buyers. The Supreme Court's ruling has cast doubt on the prospects of agreements reached with major trading partners by the United States. The trade spokesperson for the European Parliament stated that he would propose to postpone approval of an agreement with Washington until the situation becomes clearer; Indian officials will postpone their trip to the US; and a member of the ruling party in Japan called the current situation "a mess." This uncertainty provided more impetus for gold to recover from a sudden drop at the end of last month. As many factors supporting the price of gold in the long term, including escalating geopolitical tensions and investor caution towards sovereign bonds and currencies, still exist, this precious metal has risen for three consecutive weeks. As of the time of writing, the price of gold rose by 1.14% to $5162.51 per ounce. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell by 0.2% on Friday and fell by another 0.2% today. Silver rose by 3.31% to $87.45 per ounce. Platinum and palladium also rose. Meanwhile, the prospect of Iran-US negotiations is affecting the oil market. As investors weigh the possibility of a nuclear agreement between the US and Iran, more negotiations are expected later this week, while US troops are gathering in the Middle East, causing a slight drop in oil prices. The price of Brent crude oil approached $71 per barrel, with a close to unchanged closing on Friday, despite US President Trump stating that he is considering limited military strikes against Iran. On Monday, WTI crude oil also fell. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said last Sunday that it is now "very likely to find a diplomatic solution based on a win-win situation, a solution is within reach." He said negotiations are expected to take place in Geneva with US special envoy Steve Vito. Despite expectations of global oversupply in the market, concerns about US-Iran conflict have pushed up prices, with oil prices rising at the beginning of this year. Traders hurried to hedge against the prospect of escalating tensions, leading to a surge in trading in the futures and options markets. "The market can tolerate headlines, but won't ignore real supply disruptions," said Harris Koolhaid, Chief Investment Officer at Karobaar Capital LP. "If Iran's exports are hit, or if there's credible disruption in the Persian Gulf, which is highly likely in a worst-case scenario, oil will reprice quickly." The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow passage separating Iran from the Arabian Peninsula, through which oil tankers carrying crude oil and liquefied natural gas transport goods worldwide. Tehran only needs to disrupt transportation, rather than completely block the strait, to affect the global oil market. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait all transport oil through the Strait of Hormuz, with most of their goods going to Asia. Iran produces over 3 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for about 3% of global production, with the majority flowing to China. Despite concerns about escalating hostilities in the Middle East, the spot price difference for Brent crude, the difference between the most recent two contracts, has narrowed in the bullish structure of spot premiums. This closely watched indicator was 42 cents per barrel on Monday, compared to over $1 at the end of January. "Focus on time spreads, focus on diesel/heating oil stocks, and OPEC's discipline," said Koolhaid of Karobaar Capital. "If the product markets tighten or the curve goes into a stronger spot premium, that tells you something real is happening."