During the Spring Festival, the gold price surpassed $5100, with geopolitical risks catalyzing the safe-haven properties of "hard currency".

On the evening of February 20, the international gold price soared more than 2%, reaching above $5100 per ounce again. According to multiple sources, the direct catalyst for this rise in gold prices was the US Supreme Court's rejection of President Trump's tariff policy, combined with Trump openly stating that he is "considering limited strikes against Iran," leading to a rise in global safe-haven sentiment. Several industry insiders interviewed stated that the underlying logic supporting the rise in gold prices has not changed. The challenge to the US dollar's credit status continues, and gold's safe-haven properties as a "hard currency" are being repeatedly catalyzed. They recommend that investors anchor themselves to long-term trends and beware of the risks of volatility at high levels. Geopolitical risks catalyze the increase in gold prices, underlying logic remains unchanged While the aforementioned ruling by the US Supreme Court overturned some tariffs, Trump subsequently announced that he would impose new tariffs of 10% on global goods under other laws. Market participants believe that the uncertainty of the new trade policy has sparked a need for safe-haven assets. A chief analyst in the brokerage industry for nonferrous metals stated that the underlying logic supporting the rise in gold prices has not changed. The challenge to the credit status of the US dollar remains, and in the event of a risk event, gold will be further catalyzed as a safe-haven asset. In fact, since 2026, global geopolitical conflicts have been frequent: military intervention in Venezuela by the United States, investigations into the Federal Reserve Chairman by Trump, sovereignty claims over Greenland, or military actions against Iran. "I continue to be bullish on precious metals represented by gold, with the core logic behind being the 'currency phenomenon,'" said a senior executive from a multi-billion-dollar private equity firm recently, stating that high deficits in America and Europe, continuous money printing by major central banks worldwide, along with geopolitical tensions, are driving global demand for safe-haven assets and inflation resistance. Roy Chan, a professional in Hong Kong's gold investment field, stated that since last year, global investors have had deep concerns about the current world currency system reform, hence the underlying logic for the surging demand for gold has not changed. Short-term consolidation is accumulating strength, "long bull" trend still exists Zhu Zhigang, Vice Chairman and Chief Gold Analyst of the Guangdong Gold Association, stated that in the long term, given the decline in US credit and the unchanged trend of global geopolitical tensions, it is difficult for gold prices to see a significant drop. However, with high cumulative gains in the short term, there is also a risk of high-level consolidation. Roy Chan stated that in the next six months, gold prices may fluctuate mainly around $5000 per ounce, with fluctuations as the main theme. After the consolidation, the next target for gold will be directly aimed at $10,000 per ounce. The aforementioned chief analyst at the brokerage firm stated that gold prices will still be on the rise in the future, but there may be fluctuations before the next Fed chairman takes office. From the current publicly known candidates for the Fed chairman, the market is divided on whether the chairman might "both shrink the balance sheet and cut interest rates," the sequence of these actions will have a significant impact on gold prices. Officials from CMOC Group Limited (603993.SH) also recently stated that, against the backdrop of geopolitical disturbances and further rate cuts by the Fed, they are optimistic about the long-term trend of gold prices and the value of gold assets, as it is a "certain" metal category in the market. Industry insiders: Investors are advised to anchor themselves to long-term trends In terms of investment advice, the aforementioned private equity executive stated that with the global trend toward "de-dollarization," the normalization of geopolitical conflicts, and central banks continuing to buy gold, the value of gold as a non-credit asset for allocation is rising. Gold as a safe-haven asset continues to be highly recommended. Currently, global high-net-worth individuals and institutions are under-allocated in gold assets, making gold still suitable as one of the assets for portfolio construction. According to Roy Chan, investment in gold assets should be anchored to long-term trends, and the short-term rhythm of chasing highs and lows may not be easy to grasp. Zhu Zhigang stated that at present, the upward trend in gold prices is expected to continue for about five years, with each downturn being a buying opportunity. From the perspective of long-term allocation, the proportion of holdings should not be too high, with a recommended allocation of 5%-10% of household assets. As the largest buyer of gold, major central banks globally have been continuously buying gold to strengthen their national currency credit as the US dollar credit weakens. Central bank data shows that as of the end of January 2026, China's gold reserves reached 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month, marking the fifteenth consecutive month of accumulation. At the same time, according to data from the World Gold Council, global gold demand reached a total of 5002 tons in 2025, breaking through the 5000-ton mark for the first time. This article is translated from "CaiLian Press"; GMTEight Editor: Yan Wencai.