A situation unseen in the past 30 years! The volatility of the U.S. stock index is at its lowest since 1960, while the individual stock volatility is seven times higher than the index.
Barclays data shows that the trading range of the S&P 500 index this year has hit the narrowest record since the 1960s, but the individual stock volatility has reached about 7 times that of the market index, marking the largest gap in at least 30 years.
The U.S. stock market is presenting a rare split pattern: while the S&P 500 index appears calm on the surface, behind the calm of the index, intense fluctuations in individual stocks are troubling investors and signaling more turbulence. This extreme deviation between index and individual stock volatility is reshaping the market landscape and testing investors' risk management capabilities.
According to Bloomberg on Saturday, Barclays data shows that the trading range of the S&P 500 index this year has hit the narrowest record since the 1960s, but individual stock volatility has reached about 7 times that of the index, the largest gap in at least 30 years. Concerns about disruptive impact caused by artificial intelligence are triggering sharp rotations between sectors, as investors try to determine which industries will be the next target of AI disruption.
This abnormal market environment has had a substantial impact on investor behavior. According to trading data from Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage, hedge funds have been selling U.S. stocks at the fastest pace since March last year so far this month. Bank of America clients sold U.S. stocks last week, with single stock outflows reaching $8.3 billion, the third highest level on record since 2008. A survey by the Investment Managers Association showed that stock-picking investors had reduced their equity exposure to the lowest level since July last year at the beginning of this month.
Strategists warn that this environment may persist throughout the year, facing multiple near-term catalyst tests, including the possibility of U.S. military action against Iran and Nvidia's earnings announcement next week as an AI bellwether. Historical data shows that similar market structures have occurred at significant market turning points such as the 2008 financial crisis and before last year's introduction of Trump's large-scale tariff policy.
AI shifts from bullish to a source of uncertainty
Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence technology were once a driving force for bullish sentiment in the market, but now frequently trigger uncertainty. This shift is reshaping investment logic, turning "stock-picking" from finding opportunities to "avoiding collapse."
Stefano Pascale, head of U.S. equity derivatives...
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