$175 billion "tariff refund"! It is "fiscal stimulus" for US stocks, "increased debt" for US bonds, and "uncertainty returning" for gold and silver.

After the Supreme Court of the United States revoked Trump's tariff authority, the US stock market briefly rose on Friday, but investors should prepare to face a new round of economic uncertainty. On Friday, the US Supreme Court ruled Trump's tariffs illegal, with expectations in the market that future pressure on corporate profit margins would be eased. Risk appetite pushed the US stock market up mid-day after significant fluctuations throughout the day, with all three major stock indexes closing higher. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.7%, accumulating a 1.07% gain for the week, marking its best single-week performance since January 9. Meanwhile, the ruling intensified market concerns about the US government's fiscal situation, especially as bond investors have been questioning the situation of continuously rising US debt. Bond prices on the day hit new highs in yields, with the benchmark 10-year US bond yield briefly breaking 4.10%, and the US dollar weakening. Following the Supreme Court ruling, Trump started using alternative tools to impose a 10% global tariff hike and hinted that tariffs could be significantly higher than before. The policy confusion, combined with the weakening trend of the US dollar, led to a more than 2% rise in gold on Friday, reaching over $5100. Silver prices also surged by 8%. Analysts believe that in the coming period, the chaotic tariff policy and subsequent refund issues will trigger multiple market reactions, and debt pressures, policy uncertainties, and asset price volatility will continue to affect investors in the coming months. US Stocks Face Short-Term Fiscal Stimulus For US stocks, the potential $175 billion refund is a short-term "fiscal stimulus." This money will flow directly into corporate profits, especially benefiting import-dependent retail and consumer companies. On Friday, the State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF closed 0.7% higher. Jefferies analysts pointed out that companies highly reliant on imports should benefit in the short term, such as Abercrombie & Fitch, Victoria's Secret, Gap, and Birkenstock Holding, all of which maintained their gains in early trading. Zak Stambor, Chief Analyst at Emarketer, expects the ruling to bring modest momentum to retail sales starting this year, but the benefits will gradually fade out by 2028. He stated: While this decision provides some short-term relief, it does not eliminate the broader trade policy uncertainties facing retailers and brands. During the waiting period for the court decision, more than 1500 companies, including Costco, had filed tariff lawsuits in trade court to seek tariff refunds. Joe Feldman, analyst at Telsey Advisory Group, said that it takes time for companies to recover the funds they have already paid, and most product prices, except for daily commodities like milk and eggs, usually do not decrease once they have risen. Henrietta Treyz, Director of Economic Policy Research at Veda Partners, pointed out that if a new round of tariffs is imposed, it will increase compliance costs for importers again, causing confusion and disruption at the border, and disrupting unified tariff schedules. How to Fill the $2 Trillion Gap in US Debt For the US bond market, the impact of the Supreme Court's ruling is more far-reaching. Trump and Congress had hoped that tariff revenue would help pay for last year's massive tax cuts. According to estimates by the US Congressional Budget Office, if this revenue cannot be replaced, the ruling could add over $2 trillion to the existing $38.7 trillion national debt burden over the next decade. Analysts believe that if Trump cannot generate enough revenue from other tariff authorizations or if new tariffs lead to greater economic turmoil, the US bond market could face greater selling pressure. According to reports from Wall Street News, during a speech at the Dallas Economic Club on Friday, Betzent said, "No one should expect tariff revenue to decrease." He emphasized that the Trump administration will invoke alternative legal powers granted by Congress, including Section 122 and Section 301 of the 1974 Trade Act, and Section 232 of the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, to replace the tariffs levied under the IEEPA, which were overturned by the Supreme Court. The US Treasury Department's estimates show that a combination of Section 122 and potential strengthened Section 232 and Section 301 tariffs could "essentially keep tariff revenue unchanged" by 2026. He reiterated this assessment during the Q&A session after his speech, indicating the government's confidence in building a new tariff system. New Opportunities for Safe-Haven Assets like Gold For safe-haven assets like gold, the Supreme Court's ruling and its subsequent developments may reignite the demand for safe havens. On Friday, Trump said, "Countries that have taken advantage of us for years are cheering. They are so happy dancing in the streets, but they won't be happy for long." This statement reinforces market expectations of a continuing trade conflict. However, tariff policies continue to face political resistance. Polls show that nearly two-thirds of Americans believe tariffs make everyday goods more expensive. Affordability has been a key weakness for Trump and the Republicans before the midterm elections in November. Analysts believe that an unfavorable court ruling will not change Trump's "love" for tariffs. Beacon Policy Advisors analyst Owen Tedford warned that the Democrats would seize the opportunity to try to portray new tariffs as "Liberation Day 2.0" - a reference to the tariff announcement in April 2025 that led to a global market crash. This political and economic uncertainty is precisely the soil for the prosperity of safe-haven assets like gold. Ben McMillan of IDX Advisors pointed out: The market realizes that this will be a years-long chaotic legal battle. The Supreme Court ruling did not clarify details of tariff refunds, they are passing it all down to lower courts, which means there will be a large number of individual lawsuits. McMillan further added that from a fiscal perspective, potential easing measures will maintain a low-interest-rate environment, "which is favorable to gold," as gold typically performs well in a low-interest-rate environment and does not pay interest. Additionally, the latest US actions against Iran are increasing global uncertainty and enhancing the attractiveness of safe-haven assets like gold. Goldman Sachs analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven pointed out in a report that despite high volatility in December, central banks are still keen on increasing their gold holdings as a hedge against geopolitical and financial risks, and this remains a strong driver of gold price increases. This article is reprinted from "Wall Street News"; GMTEight editor: Xiaoyi Chen.