Preview of US Stock Market | Tense situation between the US and Iran, US GDP and PCE data approaching, BlueOwl (OWL.US) limited redemption raises liquidity concerns.

Pre-market market trends 1. Before the market on February 20 (Friday), the futures of the three major stock indexes in the US fell slightly. As of the time of writing, Nasdaq futures are down 0.01%, S&P 500 index futures are down 0.02%, and Dow Jones index futures are down 0.03%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index rose 0.37%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.63%, the French CAC 40 index rose 0.85%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose 0.45%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil fell 0.26%, trading at $66.23 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 0.27%, trading at $71.47 per barrel. Market News Trump issues "final warning" to Iran! Middle East tensions suddenly escalate. With US President Trump setting a deadline for negotiations on the Iran nuclear issue, political risks for GEO Group Inc have escalated significantly. According to reports, Trump stated that Iran has a maximum of 10 to 15 days to reach an agreement on its nuclear program, otherwise it will face consequences. This statement marks a significant escalation of pressure from the US on Iran. Meanwhile, the US is conducting its largest military deployment in the Middle East since the Iraq war of 2003, which the market interprets as a preparation for potential ongoing military actions. Gold, as a traditional safe-haven asset, has also performed well, stabilizing around $5000 per ounce. The initial estimate of US GDP for the fourth quarter is soon to be released, with the market generally expecting economic growth to be significantly lower than in the previous quarter. The consensus forecast from FactSet economists is that the US economy grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025, significantly lower than the 4.4% growth rate recorded in the third quarter. Media consensus forecasts are relatively optimistic, predicting an annualized growth rate of 2.8% for the fourth quarter, but still below the previous quarter's level. The US reaches a trade agreement with Indonesia, imposing a 19% tariff on imports from Indonesia. On February 19, the White House announced that the Trump administration has officially reached a reciprocal trade agreement with Indonesia aimed at expanding access to the US market for Indonesian goods, particularly in the manufacturing, agriculture, and digital economy sectors. President Trump and Indonesian President Joko Widodo signed the documents confirming that Indonesia will eliminate tariff barriers on over 99% of US exports. The two sides also confirmed commercial agreements totaling around $33 billion, including approximately $15 billion in U.S. Energy Corp. purchases, approximately $13.5 billion in aviation and related product purchases, and over $4.5 billion in purchases from the US. According to the agreement, the US will retain a 19% reciprocal tariff rate on Indonesian goods, but certain specific products will be subject to zero tariffs. JPMorgan: Tariffs severely impact US mid-sized enterprises. JPMorgan Research released a report on the 19th saying that US mid-sized enterprises are being severely impacted by tariffs, with their monthly tariff expenses tripling since early 2025. The report shows that monthly tariff expenses for US mid-sized enterprises began to sharply increase in April 2025, reaching approximately three times the level before that in August, and then consolidating at a high level. Overall, tariff expenses account for about 10% of all international expenses for US mid-sized enterprises; for US mid-sized enterprises that pay tariffs, tariff expenses account for about 15% of their international expenses. The report cites the latest research indicating that US companies and consumers bear 96% of the cost of tariffs. Additionally, research indicates that as of October last year, 43% of tariff costs had been passed on to consumer prices, meaning that most of the costs are being borne by businesses. This situation is likely to be unsustainable in the long run. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: Central bank gold purchases combined with private investment will drive gold prices to $5400 before the end of the year. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. predicts that the price of gold will gradually rise, reaching $5400 per ounce by the end of 2026, with diversification offering upward potential. At the same time, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects central bank gold purchases to accelerate again in 2026, following the pace seen in 2025. The core idea is that central bank demand, coupled with increased holdings from private investors (mainly in response to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve), will support a steady rise in gold prices. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. points out that if there is an increase in diversification measures by the private sector (particularly in bullish option structures), the market will face significant upside risk. In addition, while the medium-term trend remains upward, there may be significant volatility. Individual stock news Is it the "canary in the coal mine" moment for the private equity market? Blue Owl (OWL.US) limits redemptions, sparking liquidity concerns and sending stock prices to new lows in over two years. The stock price of Blue Owl Capital fell sharply after the company decided to restrict redemptions from one of its private credit funds, raising new concerns about the underlying risks in this $1.8 trillion market. The alternative asset management company's shares fell about 6% on Thursday to their lowest level in over two years, as the company sold $1.4 billion in loan assets held by three of its private debt funds. This move highlights new concerns about the risks faced by retail investors entering the rapidly growing private credit market. While investors can typically redeem a portion of their capital each quarter, they may face restrictions on payouts if redemption requests exceed set limits. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) plans to invest $30 billion in OpenAI, with a pre-investment valuation of $730 billion. NVIDIA Corporation is reportedly in advanced negotiations with OpenAI, planning to invest up to $30 billion as part of a new round of financing for the AI startup. After this round of financing, OpenAI's pre-investment valuation is expected to reach $730 billion. An insider revealed that this investment is not related to the $100 billion infrastructure cooperation agreement announced by the two parties last September. The $30 billion investment does not come with any deployment conditions. Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) launches a more affordable Cybertruck model in the US. Tesla, Inc. launched a more affordable Cybertruck model in the US on Thursday, priced at $59,990. The model is equipped with a dual-motor all-wheel-drive system and is the "most affordable" Cybertruck model the company has introduced so far. According to pricing information on the electric car manufacturer's website, the company has also reduced the price of its most expensive Cybertruck model, "Cyberbeast," from $114,990 to $99,990. With the price reduction, Tesla, Inc. appears to be discontinuing the Deluxe Corporation package that includes "unsupervised full self-driving" functionality and free use of the supercharging network for this model. Q4 revenue surpasses $1 billion but profitability pressure remains, Klarna Group (KLAR.US) stock hits historic lows. Swedish "buy now, pay later" (BNPL) giant Klarna Group released its fourth-quarter financial report on Thursday, announcing its first ever quarterly revenue exceeding $1 billion, but faced a tepid response from the capital markets, causing its stock to plummet. The financial report showed that Klarna's revenue for the quarter was $1.08 billion, slightly higher than the Wall Street expectation of $1.07 billion; while the Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), which measures the transaction scale on the platform, stood at $387 billion, also slightly higher than the analysts' estimate of $381 billion. As of the fourth quarter, the company had 118 million active users, slightly better than the market's expectation of 117 million, but the average revenue per active user remained at $30, showing no growth. In terms of profitability, Klarna recorded a pre-tax loss of $241 million for the quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of losses since its initial public offering. Following this, the company's stock price plummeted by nearly 27% on the day, closing at $13.85, marking not only the largest single-day drop since going public but also hitting a record low closing price. Gold price surge boosts Newman Mining (NEM.US) Q4 results above expectations, plans to invest $1.4 billion in developing Newcrest related assets. The financial report shows that Newman Mining achieved quarterly profits above Wall Street expectations due to record high gold prices offsetting a decline in production; the company also announced a $1.4 billion investment plan to develop assets acquired following the acquisition of Newcrest. Fourth quarter revenue increased by 21% year-on-year, reaching $6.82 billion, higher than the analysts' expected $6.19 billion, with gold sales contributing $5.81 billion, up 20% year-on-year. The quarter's net profit was $1.3 billion, equivalent to earnings per share of $1.19, compared to a net profit of $1.4 billion and earnings per share of $1.24 in the same period last year. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.52, significantly higher than the Wall Street consensus of $2.05 per share. Pushing back against the criticism of "reducing screenings"! Netflix (NFLX.US) Co-CEO: Acquiring Warner Bros. (WBD.US) is only to bring more blockbusters. Netflix Co-CEO Ted Sarandos stated that if the company successfully acquires Warner Brothers Discovery, there will be more movies appearing on the big screen in the future, in response to key criticisms from the Hollywood industry concerning this high-profile acquisition the deal revolves around the ownership of this iconic film and television company. Sarandos stated in an interview on Thursday that the merger of Netflix and Warner Brothers would be "more beneficial to theaters," as Netflix could leverage the distribution channels already established by Warner Brothers to push its own films to theaters. Important economic data and events forecast 21:30 Beijing time US December PCE Price Index Annual Rate (%), US December Core PCE Price Index Annual Rate (%) 21:30 Beijing time US Fourth Quarter Real GDP Annualized Rate Initial Value (%) 22:45 Beijing time US February SPGI Manufacturing PMI Preliminary Value 22:45 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on economic outlook. 23:00 Beijing time US February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Final Value