Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures fell simultaneously. The options market is betting wildly on the Fed cutting interest rates by more than expected.

Pre-market Market Trends 1. Before the US stock market opened on February 19th (Thursday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell together. As of the time of writing, Nasdaq futures were down 0.32%, S&P 500 index futures were down 0.30%, and Dow Jones futures were down 0.39%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index fell by 0.88%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.83%, the France CAC 40 index fell by 0.78%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.83%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 1.25% to $65.86 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 1.18% to $71.18 per barrel. Market News Federal Reserve officials hawkish, interest rate options traders contrarian betting on aggressive rate cuts. Data shows that interest rate options traders in the US are betting on the Federal Reserve cutting rates faster and more aggressively than investors currently expect, in contrast to the latest signals from some Federal Reserve officials, some policymakers have raised the possibility of raising rates. Soviet-OVERNIGHT secured financing rate (SOFR) futures call options linked to the short-term Federal Reserve benchmark rate, as well as US Treasury futures call options, have seen a large number of buyers, these options are expected to profit from the rally in the market. However, the trend in the options market is sharply contrasted with the spot market, according to a recent survey by JPMorgan Chase, investors reduced their net long position in US Treasury bonds over the past week, with more investors taking a neutral stance. Famous "Black Swan Fund" founder warns: S&P 500 may plummet after reaching 8000 points! Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief investment officer of the "Black Swan Fund" Universa Investments, said that the long-term uptrend in US stocks is far from over - at least for now. He believes that in the coming year, the market will continue to be in the "blond zone - inflation and downward interest rates, economic slowing but not excessive, market sentiment turning to fanaticism - the stock market will continue to rise and end with a violent surge." He said, as long as the economy remains resilient, the stock market will continue to rise - a point he has been insisting on since the end of 2022. However, he added, the current "greatest bubble in human history" has entered its final stage, and market frenzy may drive the S&P 500 index to rise to 8000 points or even higher - before a sharp reversal. It is reported that Spitznagel's hedge fund has been in existence for nearly twenty years, focusing on tail risk hedging, which protects investors' portfolios from the impact of the next major market collapse. "The sell America" argument debunked: Foreign investment in US long-term financial assets to increase to $1.55 trillion by 2025. Data shows that driven by demand for stocks and US Treasury bonds, purchases of American Financial Group, Inc. assets by foreign investors accelerated in 2025 - strongly refuting the "sell America" argument, a topic that has become a frequent point of discussion among market participants. Data released by the US Treasury Department on Wednesday showed that foreign investors bought a net $1.55 trillion of US long-term financial assets in 2025, up from $1.18 trillion in the previous year. Among them, $442.7 billion flowed into US Treasury bonds. US President Trump has frequently threatened to raise tariffs substantially - citing reasons spanning economics, politics, and national security, among others - sparking concerns that foreign investors will sell off US markets and the US dollar. Castle Securities: US retail investors frantically "buy the dip" in software stocks, record-breaking amount of "sweep" funds. After a sharp drop in software stocks threatened by artificial intelligence tools, Wall Street is re-evaluating the possibility of overselling them, while retail investors are lining up to buy on the dips. According to Scott Rubner, head of stocks and derivatives strategy at Castle Securities, retail traders on the Castle Securities platform spent a record amount buying software stocks. The sell-off in the software sector has affected the entire market, with investors selling off stocks of companies perceived to be replaceable by AI technology, even with minimal risk. While professional investors, including hedge funds, have been increasing their short positions at record speed, retail investors hold the opposite view and buy on the dips. In addition, retail demand is no longer limited to the technology sector. Data for the year-to-date shows that this group favors industries such as materials, real estate, finance, communication services, and industrial sectors. This trend has also spread beyond the cash stock market. Retail participation in the options market has reached historic highs in 2026. Middle East tension draws attention, gold and silver edge up slightly. Gold spot prices rose by 0.27% to $4991.16 per ounce, while silver spot prices rose by 1.19% to $78.10 per ounce. According to sources familiar with the matter, the US military is prepared to launch a military strike against Iran as early as this weekend, but President Trump has not yet made a final decision. Sources say the White House has been informed that the military is ready to launch an attack this weekend after a significant increase in US troops in the Middle East in recent days. Trump has privately debated the pros and cons of military action and consulted with advisors and allies on the best course of action - it is unclear whether he will make a decision before the weekend. The US is sending a significant increase in troops to the Middle East. The US Navy aircraft carrier "Ford" and its escort ships are heading through the Atlantic to the Strait of Gibraltar. In addition, the US has deployed a large number of combat aircraft and support aircraft to the Middle East, assembling the largest air force in the region since the 2003 Iraq war. In addition, Poland has called on its citizens currently in Iran to leave as soon as possible and called on Polish people to stop traveling to Iran. Individual stock news NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) CEO Huang Renxun: Prepare a number of unprecedented new chips for GTC 2026. Huang Renxun, in an interview with the media, preheated the upcoming GTC 2026 conference, clearly stating that "world-first" new chips will be unveiled at the conference, which has attracted wide attention in the industry. It is understood that NVIDIA Corporation's GTC 2026 conference will be held in San Jose, California, USA from March 16th to 19th, focusing on the new era of AI infrastructure competition. As a leader in the AI chip field, the heavyweight preview by NVIDIA Corporation is expected to further consolidate its leading position in the AI infrastructure field. Huang Renxun said, "We have prepared many new chips that have never been seen in the world. Nothing is easy, as all technologies have reached their limits." However, he did not disclose specific models, but hinted that this new hardware will push current physical limits to the extreme. Tech media interpretation believes that this mysterious chip is likely to be a mature product based on the Rubin architecture. Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) partners with Sea (SE.US) to create e-commerce and gaming AI tools. Alphabet Inc. Class C and the Southeast Asian tech giant Sea announced a new cooperation, where they will develop artificial intelligence (AI) tools for Sea's e-commerce and gaming products. According to a joint statement, under the newly signed strategic cooperation agreement, they will jointly explore the construction of a shopping prototype system with AI intelligence on Sea's e-commerce platform Shopee. This is an important step for global tech companies to commercialize AI models. Companies are no longer just using AI for question and answer functions but expanding its application boundaries to execute cross-application shopping, manage complex workflows, and achieve a wider range of tasks, thus realizing the commercial value of AI technology. Bidding war may escalate! Market pricing expects Warner Bros. (WBD.US) acquisition offer to be raised again. Traders speculate that Warner Bros. exploring a control battle will prompt one of the bidders to raise their offer. The iconic Hollywood studio's stock price closed slightly below $29 per share on Wednesday, after Paramount Skies (PSKY.US) said it might raise its offer by at least $1 to $31 per share the prior day. Event-driven analysis analyst Michael Broudo of Aubonheur Corp said that based on the wording in Paramount Skies' press release, the previously proposed $31 per share offer was not a "final bid," so it seems reasonable for Paramount Skies to raise the offer to $32 per share. Upstream production to resist price declines, strong growth in midstream, Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY.US) Q4 earnings beat expectations. The financial report shows that for the three months ending December 31st, Occidental Petroleum Corporation's Q4 adjusted earnings per share were $0.31, higher than the expected $0.18; revenue decreased by 5.2% to $5.42 billion year-over-year. The company's Q4 performance was affected by the drop in oil prices, but the strong performance of the midstream business helped offset the negative impact of lower oil prices. The company expects capital expenditures to be between $5.5 billion and $5.9 billion in 2026, with average production between 1.42 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and 1.48 million barrels of oil equivalent per day; first quarter production is expected to be between 1.38 million barrels of oil equivalent per day and 1.42 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. As of the time of writing, Occidental Petroleum Corporation was up over 4% in pre-market trading on Thursday. Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR (RIO.US) announces full-year performance: profits remain flat, slightly below expectations, iron ore under pressure but copper business strong. Global mining giant Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR released its 2025 annual performance on Thursday. Data indicates that despite the core iron ore business being hampered by weak prices, the company's full-year underlying profits remained largely flat, slightly below market expectations. For the year ending December 31, 2025, the company achieved an underlying profit of $10.87 billion. This figure is on par with the previous year but slightly below the market's expectation of $11.03 billion. The company's iron ore business, as Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR's largest source of profit, was affected by falling prices and stagnant shipments, leading to an 11% year-on-year decrease in the underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). In stark contrast to the iron ore business, Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR's copper business performed impressively, with copper production increasing by 11% year-over-year, and the average realized price also rising by 17%, driving the business's EBITDA to double to $7.37 billion. Rio Tinto plc Sponsored ADR's aluminum and lithium businesses also saw a 29% profit increase due to improved prices, including about $1 billion in total costs related to US aluminum export tariffs. Teck Resources (TECK.US) closes out strong in 2025: Copper price surge boosts Q4 profit, merger with Anglo American steadily progressing. Canadian mining company Teck Resources delivered a strong performance in the fourth quarter of 2025, thanks to a substantial increase in copper prices and stable operational performance. At the same time, the company's merger plan with Anglo American is steadily making progress. The financial report shows that in the fourth quarter of 2025, the adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) increased from CAD 835 million to CAD 1.51 billion (about USD 1.1 billion), surpassing analysts' average expectations. Quarterly revenue also rose from CAD 2.79 billion to CAD 3.06 billion year-on-year, while gross profit almost doubled to CAD 990 million. The company's strong performance was mainly driven by its copper business. In the fourth quarter, the copper business contributed a gross profit of CAD 1.1 billion, significantly higher than the CAD 732 million in the same period last year. During the reporting period, the average copper price reached $5.03 per pound, closing the year at $5.67 per pound. Important economic data and event announcements 21:30 Beijing time - US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14 21:30 Beijing time - US February Philly Fed Manufacturing Index 22:00 Beijing time - 2026 FOMC voting members, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will speak.