New York Fed Evidence: US Tariff Policy Backfires, with Nearly 90% of Costs Borne by American Companies and Consumers.

A recent study by economists at the New York Federal Reserve shows that by 2025, nearly 90% of the economic burden of increased tariffs in the United States is borne by American businesses and consumers. Based on data analysis up to November 2025, the study found that in the first 8 months of that year, about 94% of the tariff costs were passed on to American businesses and consumers. By November, the proportion borne by foreign exporters had slightly increased 10% of the tariffs corresponded to a 1.4% decrease in their export prices but the proportion of tariff pass-through still remained high at 86%. The authors of the report, Mary Amiti, Chris Flanagan, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein wrote: "This result implies that a 10% tariff only leads to a 0.6 percentage point decline in foreign export prices." The study also noted that on April 2nd last year the "releasing day" as referred to by President Trump, who announced a massive increase in import tariffs on that day the average tariff rate in the United States soared from 2.6% to 13%. There was a significant jump in April and May due to the imposition of high temporary tariffs on Chinese goods. Despite tariff exemptions and supply chain adjustments reducing the actual tax burden, the economic burden continues to be primarily borne by the American people. Furthermore, the high cost of tariffs has also accelerated the process of shifting supply chains from China to countries like Mexico and Vietnam. Researchers analyzed monthly trade data up to November 2025, using statistical methods similar to those used in tariff studies in 2018 and 2019: by comparing the 12-month changes in foreign export prices with tariff rates, while controlling for product-level and global price trends, in order to estimate the direct impact of tariffs on prices.