EB Securities: The electricity shortage in the United States has increased the demand for the reliability of the power system. Gas turbines and other related sectors are expected to fully benefit from this.

EB SECURITIES released a report stating that the core reason for power shortage in the United States is the continued increase in capital expenditure expectations for data centers. Based on this, GridStrategies has significantly raised its forecast for the growth of summer peak demand in the United States from 64GW in 2025 to 166GW in 2030. As of mid-October 2025, the planned capacity for data center reserves in the United States since January 2023 has reached 245GW. With data centers continuing to come online, peak demand will continue to rise, and reliance solely on stable power sources will be difficult to meet demand. The power shortage in the United States has led to an increased demand for power system reliability, and gas turbines, power equipment, and energy storage are expected to benefit greatly. The main points of EB SECURITIES are as follows: How to view the causes of power shortage in the United States? EB SECURITIES believes that the core reason for the power shortage in the United States is the continued increase in capital expenditure expectations for data centers. The mismatch between the expected capital expenditure for data centers and the actual demand, as well as the mismatch between actual demand and infrastructure capacity, have created uncertainty in the pace of actual deployment of data centers. Energy storage, SOFC and other regulating power sources can effectively make up for the load gap In the future, the primary new power installation in the United States will be gas-fired power. EIA predicts that under the current project planning, gas-fired power installations will increase by 7/7/16/8/7GW from 2026 to 2030, while other stable power sources will not see any new additions. At the same time, coal-fired power units will face significant retirement pressure. By mid-October 2025, the planned capacity for data center reserves in the United States since January 2023 has reached 245GW, and as data centers continue to come online, peak demand will continue to rise, making it difficult to meet demand with stable power sources alone. Estimate the extent of power shortage in the United States based on the pace of data center deployment If regulating power sources are not considered, the power shortage in 2030 will be 2/35/65/157GW under the deployment pace of 90GW in 5 years, 245GW in 10 years, 245GW in 8 years, and 245GW in 5 years respectively. If regulating power sources are considered, all four scenarios can meet the demand. The characteristics of load growth regions are obvious, mainly concentrated in areas with dense data center construction Future peak power demand growth in the United States will mainly be concentrated in transmission areas such as ERCOT and PJM, with data centers being the main driving factor. PJM and ERCOT are the main areas for data center construction in the United States. As of January 2026, the planned data center capacity in Virginia and Texas in PJM and ERCOT is 34.19GW and 26.60GW respectively. The former has network advantages with low latency, while the latter has the power advantage of abundant natural gas resources PJM: The surge in data center demand will increase the summer peak load from 156GW in 2026 to 222GW in 2036. Coupled with the reduction in effective installed capacity, PJM's power reserve margin will drop to 18.6% in 2025/2026, falling below the safety value of 20%. This has led to its capacity price soaring from $28.92/megawatt day in 2024/2025 to $269.92/megawatt day in 2025/2026. PJM is adjusting policies to accelerate power construction and prioritizing stable power construction. By June 2025, PJM has signed grid agreements for 46GW of power generation projects, with 11.8GW of gas-fired projects entering the fast-track approval process. ERCOT: Its abundant natural gas resources, lower electricity prices, and faster grid approval make it the preferred location for new data center planning. As of November 8, 2025, ERCOT has received applications for 226GW of large load interconnection, including 164GW for data centers. This will increase its summer peak load from 87GW in 2025 to 138GW in 2030, and ERCOT predicts that its power system reliability will fall short in 2028. To address this, ERCOT is speeding up the construction of energy storage, gas-fired and other sources that can effectively enhance the reliability of the power system. By the end of 2025, ERCOT has 441GW of power generation projects in the queue for grid interconnection, including 175GW of energy storage and 54GW of gas-fired power. Target analysis 1) Gas turbines: Under a highly booming market background, overseas gas turbine leading companies face capacity bottlenecks. It is recommended to pay attention to Dongfang Electric Corporation (600875.SH, 01072), Shanghai Electric Group (601727.SH, 02727), etc. 2) Power equipment: With the growth in infrastructure demand of the US power grid, transformers, which have supply bottlenecks, are worth paying attention to. It is recommended to focus on Hainan Jinpan Smart Technology (688676.SH), Sieyuan Electric (002028.SZ), Eaglerise Electric & Electronic (002922.SZ); AI power architecture upgrades can effectively improve power efficiency, and continuous growth is expected in HVDC and SST solutions. It is recommended to focus on Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric (300693.SZ), Beijing Sifang Automation (601126.SH), Shenzhen Megmeet Electrical (002851.SZ), Shenzhen Hopewind Electric (603063.SH). 3) Energy storage: In the short term, it can effectively enhance the reliability of the power system. It is recommended to pay attention to Sungrow Power Supply (300274.SZ), CSI Solar Co., Ltd.(688472.SH). Risk analysis Risks include the AI data center construction not meeting expectations, trade risks in exporting to the United States, and fluctuations in raw material prices.