CITIC SEC: The photovoltaic solar panel industry is expected to accelerate the "anti overwork" trend. Recommended leading manufacturers of solar panels, pastes, and equipment.

CITIC SEC recently released a research report stating that in the context of a sharp rise in silver prices, leading manufacturers of photovoltaic battery modules are expected to accelerate the substitution of cheap metal paste, driving the industry's cost gradient differentiation to intensify. In addition, the continuous upgrade in demand structure towards high-efficiency products may lead to accelerated elimination pressure for outdated production capacity. At the same time, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy is leading the charge in the photovoltaic industry's intellectual property rights against internal competition, with leading manufacturers possessing core technology and patent advantages expected to stand out. CITIC SEC predicts that the photovoltaic battery module industry's "anti-competition" measures are expected to accelerate, and recommends leading manufacturers of battery modules, paste, and equipment. CITIC SEC's main points are as follows: With the significant rise in silver prices, the large-scale introduction of cheap metal paste is expected to accelerate, leading to the differentiation of battery costs. According to data from Golden Investment Network, driven by multiple factors such as supply and demand, as well as finance, the spot price of silver has rapidly increased from around 0.8 yuan/kg in mid-2025 to 1.6 yuan/kg by the end of 2025, and is currently around 1.9 yuan/kg, with future prices expected to remain strong. Taking mainstream TOPCon cells as an example, we estimate that for every 1000 yuan/kg increase in silver prices, the corresponding increase in silver paste costs is around 1 cent/W, with total silver paste costs now approaching 2 cents/W. Based on cost pressure, the progress of substituting cheap metal paste is expected to accelerate in different technological pathways: 1) For HJT leading manufacturers, with the advantage of mature low-cost silver-coated copper paste (with a silver content of 20%-30%), we estimate that the silver content is expected to decrease to within 4mg/W (over 50% lower than TOPCon), achieving a rapid cost reversal in the battery cost section. We calculate that their cost compared to TOPCon cells will be lower by 1 cent/W, and they will also enjoy a slight premium on the selling end. 2) For leading BC cell manufacturers, we expect that in the second quarter of 2026, they will accelerate the large-scale introduction and substitution of copper paste, with the adoption of the same paste scheme, and combined with previous company performance conference guidance, we expect a reduction in metallization costs by 0.5-1 cent/W; Another company has also mass-applied electroplated copper technology, effectively avoiding cost impacts from the rapid rise in silver prices. 3) Under the pressure of high silver prices and competitors accelerating the introduction of copper paste, we predict that leading manufacturers of TOPCon cells will also accelerate the introduction of cheap metal paste. We believe that the second half of 2026 could be a key node for the mass application, leading to a reduction in continuously increasing metallization costs. For second and third-tier cell module manufacturers, in the absence of funding and technological accumulation, the introduction and substitution of cheap metal paste may face higher thresholds and slow progress. The cost gap between them and leading manufacturers (whether they are HJT, BC, or TOPCon companies) may widen to 1 cent/W or even higher (depending on future silver price trends). With significant differentiation in the cost levels of cell module manufacturers and the continuous upgrade in demand structure towards high-efficiency products, technology and cost-backward mid-tail companies may face accelerated elimination. Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy reached a patent licensing agreement with Maxeon, leading the charge in the photovoltaic intellectual property rights against internal competition. Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy recently announced that it has signed a "Patent License Agreement" with Maxeon, a subsidiary of TCL Zhonghuan Renewable Energy Technology, whereby they will pay a patent license fee of 1.65 billion yuan in installments over the next five years to get authorization for all BC cells and components patents owned separately or jointly by Maxeon, excluding the United States, in the past and for the next five years. With Shanghai Aiko Solar Energys own patent layout completed in the BC field, combined with the granting of Maxeon patents this time, they are expected to further build a patent moat for both parties in the BC cell field to address intellectual property rights against internal competition in the industry. In recent years, the weak awareness of intellectual property rights in the domestic photovoltaic industry has been one of the fundamental reasons for the disorderly competition in the industry, and has directly led to frequent photovoltaic intellectual property lawsuits. The patent cooperation between Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy and Maxeon is expected to become a model for resolving patent disputes in the photovoltaic industry and raising the industry access threshold, marking the "first shot" in the photovoltaic intellectual property rights against internal competition, with leading manufacturers possessing core technology and patent advantages expected to stand out. Risk factors: Continued low-price disorderly competition in the photovoltaic industry; Policy implementation falling short of expectations; Industry capacity clearance falling short of expectations; Slow progress in the introduction of cheap metal paste; Intellectual property protection in the photovoltaic industry falling short of expectations; Unexpectedly low demand for photovoltaic components. Investment strategy: With the sharp rise in silver prices, leading manufacturers of photovoltaic battery modules are expected to accelerate the substitution of cheap metal paste, driving the industry's cost gradient differentiation to intensify. In addition, the continuous upgrade in demand structure towards high-efficiency products may lead to accelerated elimination pressure for outdated production capacity. At the same time, Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy is leading the charge in the photovoltaic industry's intellectual property rights against internal competition, with leading manufacturers possessing core technology and patent advantages expected to stand out. We predict that the photovoltaic battery module industry's "anti-competition" measures are likely to accelerate, and recommend: 1) Leading manufacturers of battery modules, 2) Core suppliers of paste materials, 3) Suppliers of HJT battery equipment with continuously improving competitive advantages.