The key catalyst for the long bull market in US stocks is about to come! Giants such as SpaceX and OpenAI are ready to make moves, and Goldman Sachs is betting that 2026 will be a big year for IPOs.

Strategy analysts at Wall Street financial giant Goldman Sachs recently stated that the actual size of initial public offerings (IPOs) in the US stock market is expected to rebound strongly this year, driven by multiple factors, including a long-standing stable US economic background, increased board confidence, and the expectation of ongoing loose monetary policy. The increase in IPO size and quantity is often a leading indicator of market heat and capital market financing activity, so for this current round of "super long-term bull market" in the US stock market since 2023, the positive IPO phenomenon means that the market may continue its strong bullish trend. The team of stock strategists led by Goldman Sachs senior strategist Ben Snider wrote in a research report that they expect IPO fundraising in 2026 to reach approximately $160 billion, surpassing last year's fundraising of only about $48 billion. Their latest forecast excludes SPACs and other types of fundraising. "We expect very stable economic growth activity this year, continued improvement in CEO confidence, friendly monetary policy, and the continued appreciation of the US stock market," the Goldman Sachs strategists wrote in the report. They believe that the expected growth in IPO size and quantity is more of a return to normal from abnormally low levels, rather than a speculative market boom. Goldman's strategists expect the number of US stock IPO transactions in 2026 to increase to 120, meaning nearly double the number from last year. In terms of amount, the issuance amount will still only account for approximately 0.2% of the total market value of one of the major US stock indices, the Russell 3000 index, lower than the peak of 0.3% in 2021. The IPO market in the US stock market had a mixed start this year, with several popular listed companies facing difficulties in their initial public trading. Recently, the stock of the well-known hair transplant/hair loss drug development company Veradermics Inc. rose by 122% when it debuted on Wednesday, while the stock of the cancer drug development company Eikon Therapeutics Inc. unexpectedly fell by 17% on Thursday. For the team of Goldman strategists led by Snider, the key risks in the 2026 US stock IPO market mainly include the resurgence of market volatility, which is very unfavorable for the expansion of actual IPO size. For example, the sharp fluctuations in global stock markets experienced last week, with tech stocks leading the decline, traders beginning to question the prospects of investing heavily in artificial intelligence computing infrastructure. Goldman strategist Snider pointed out that the high proportion of software companies in the potential IPO pipeline is also a risk - the recent "Anthropic storm" in the financial markets has severely affected the valuation prospects of software stocks. Earlier in January of this year, Anthropi...