Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures fell, and U.S. non-farm payrolls and CPI are coming this week.

Pre-market market trends 1. Prior to the US stock market on February 9 (Monday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes all fell. As of the time of writing, the Dow futures fell by 0.06%, the S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.17%, and the Nasdaq futures fell by 0.33%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index rose by 0.32%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.13%, the France CAC 40 index rose by 0.03%, and the Europe Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.21%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.44% to $63.83 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose by 0.41% to $68.33 per barrel. Market news Non-farm payroll + CPI coming this week. Looking ahead to this week, the market is bracing for key data releases. On Tuesday, the US Department of Commerce will release December retail sales data; the January non-farm payrolls report, which was delayed due to a brief government shutdown, will be released on Wednesday. Economists expect an addition of 70,000 non-farm payroll jobs last month, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 4.4%. The release of this non-farm payrolls report comes at a time when signs of instability are appearing in the US labor market. Additionally, it is worth noting that this January non-farm payroll report will also include annual employment revision data. It is expected that the revision data will show that the pace of employment growth in the US over the past year up to March 2025 has been significantly lower than initially reported levels. Friday will see the release of key inflation data. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, with the market expecting a 0.3% month-over-month increase and a 2.5% year-over-year increase. In terms of corporate earnings, this week will see releases from well-known companies such as Coca-Cola Company, McDonald's Corporation, Cisco Systems, Inc., and ON Semiconductor Corporation. Morgan Stanley backs tech stocks: AI investment cycle fluctuations do not change strong fundamentals, rebound still have momentum. Morgan Stanley strategists say that due to the AI boom supporting strong sales prospects, there is still room for further gains in US technology stocks. A team led by Michael Wilson stated that revenue growth expectations for large tech stocks have reached the "highest level in decades", and after recent market volatility, their valuations have declined. Meanwhile, the sell-off in software stocks has created "attractive buying opportunities" for stocks like Microsoft Corporation and Intuit Inc. Wilson wrote in a report, "Periods like last week are not uncommon in major investment cycles. Nevertheless, the fundamentals of the AI enablers industry remain strong, and we believe that the market value of AI adopters is still underestimated." Wilson's views may reassure investors who have started to question the hefty returns on AI investments in the sector. Algorithmic sell-off storm looming? Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.: If the S&P 500 falls below 6707 or triggers an $800 billion systematic sell-off. According to analysis from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s trading department, after a rebound in US stocks last Friday, almost recovering from the significant mid-week decline, the market may face further selling pressure from trend-following algorithmic funds this week. The S&P 500 index has already fallen below the short-term trigger point for commodity trading advisors (CTAs) to sell stocks. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. expects that these trend-following systematic strategies based on market trends rather than fundamental factors will continue to be net sellers of stocks in the coming week, regardless of market direction. According to Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.'s analysis, if US stocks fall again, this week may trigger approximately $33 billion in selling pressure. The bank's data shows that if market pressure continues and the S&P 500 index falls below 6707 points, it could trigger an additional $800 billion in systematic selling over the next month. Specifically, in a market-neutral scenario, CTAs are expected to sell approximately $15.4 billion in US stocks this week; even if the stock market rises, these trend-following systematic strategy funds still expect to sell about $8.7 billion. Bank of America report: Unprecedented "synchronicity" between Trump's approval ratings and the US dollar's trend, the market is unlikely to receive support until the "Know King" support rate rebounds. Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett pointed out in a recent research report that the current trend of the US dollar and the performance of the American Financial Group, Inc. market are showing significant synchronicity with the approval ratings of US President Trump. Since taking office, the US dollar index has fallen by approximately 10%, and his approval rating has also fallen in tandem. The downward pressure and volatility in Wall Street currently faced are unlikely to receive effective support and relief until Trump's approval rating shows a substantial rebound. This view directly links GEO Group Inc. political polling data to market risk appetite, reflecting extreme investor dependence on US policy execution and future economic certainty. Wash's "AI rate cut theory" fiercely criticized by the academic community, Trump's loose policy calculations may fall flat? Wash previously stated that artificial intelligence (AI) will significantly boost productivity in the short term, enough to support a rate cut in the US and avoid inflation rebound. However, an immediate survey conducted by economists at the University of Chicago's Booth Financial Markets Center shows that most respondents believe there is currently no evidence to suggest that AI will have such significant effects in the next two years. Out of 45 respondents, nearly 60% said that the short-term impact of AI on inflation levels and neutral interest rates is minimal, at most reducing each by 0.2 percentage points. Several economists said that AI is unlikely to be a significant driver of lower inflation in the short term, nor does it pose a major risk of sparking inflation. About one-third of respondents held a more radical view, believing that the accelerated economic growth driven by AI could actually slightly raise neutral interest rates, which not only would not provide a basis for rate cuts, but would make interest rate decisions more complex. Federal Reserve balance sheet reform on the horizon? Does Wash's "new agreement" with the Treasury Department shake up the $30 trillion US bond market structure? Wash has publicly supported the development of a new version of a 1951 agreement to reshape the relationship between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department. The original agreement strictly limited the extent of the Federal Reserve's involvement in the bond market, but with tens of trillions of dollars of securities purchases during the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic, the situation has changed significantly. Before Wash potentially officially takes office, he and Treasury Secretary Scott Benet have not disclosed the specific content of a possible agreement. However, the nominee mentioned in an interview last year that a new agreement could "clearly and prudently define" the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet and have the Treasury Department outline its debt issuance plan. This improvement may ultimately prove to be only minor bureaucratic adjustments, with minimal short-term impact on the $30 trillion US bond market. However, if a more significant measure involving a reshuffling of the current Federal Reserve's over $6 trillion securities portfolio is involved, it could lead to increased market volatility and concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, depending on the specific circumstances. Individual stock news Claude strikes again after bloodbath in the software industry, targets human accountants! Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS.US) partners with Anthropic to aim for automated accounting compliance. A senior executive at Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. revealed that the bank is collaborating with artificial intelligence (AI) startup Anthropic to develop an AI intelligence agent, gradually transitioning multiple positions within the bank to automation. Marco Argenti, Chief Information Officer of Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., said that over the past six months, engineers from Anthropic have been embedded within Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., and the two have jointly developed autonomous intelligence agents, initially focusing on two core areas: transaction reconciliation and customer due diligence and account opening processes. Argenti noted that the autonomous agents developed based on Anthropic's Claude model are still in the early stages of development, and these agents will significantly shorten the processing time of the above core businesses. He revealed that these intelligent agents are about to be launched, but did not disclose a specific date. Global copper crisis worsening! BHP Group Ltd Sponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 2 Shs (BHP.US) increases investment in Argentine copper mining project, plans to double investment to $800 million this year. A senior executive at BHP Group Ltd Sponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 2 Shs revealed that the company's subsidiary Vicua Corp. plans to double its investment in the global heavyweight copper mining project located at an altitude of over 4200 meters on the border between Argentina and Chile. According to Caterina Dzugala, communications director at Vicua, the company formed by Australian BHP Group Ltd Sponsored American Depositary Receipt Repr 2 Shs and Canadian Lundin Mining, may invest approximately $800 million this year in the Filo del Sol and Josemara mining projects. These two major projects are expected to be among the most influential copper mining development projects globally. Since the closure of the Alumbrera copper mine in 2018, Argentina has had no copper product output. Currently, governments and automakers around the world are warning about a shortage of supply for copper, a core material for electrification. Argentina is also seeking to return to the global copper market as a result. NatWest (NWG.US) splashes out 2.7 billion pounds to acquire Evelyn! Targeting high net worth clients and wealth management. NatWest has agreed to acquire wealth management company Evelyn Partners, a move indicating that this UK bank is seeking to expand its coverage of high net worth clients in the domestic market. According to a statement released on Monday, Edinburgh-based NatWest will acquire Evelyn (including debt) for 2.7 billion pounds, making it the largest private-equity-backed wealth management company exit deal in UK history. Acquiring Evelyn is expected to accelerate CEO Paul Swett's efforts to streamline NatWest's business and expand in priority growth areas, especially in wealth management and high net worth clients. However, analysts at Jefferies Financial Group Inc. pointed out in a report that the transaction will drag down NatWest's earnings per share and tangible net asset value, and reduce the size of its buyback program in the short term. As at the time of writing, NatWest was down nearly 6% in pre-market trading on Monday. Sohu.com Limited Sponsored ADR (SOHU.US) reported revenue of $142 million in Q4 2025, up 6% year-on-year. Sohu.com Limited Sponsored ADR announced its unaudited financial results for the fourth quarter and full year of 2025 ending December 31, 2025. The company reported total revenue of $142 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, an increase of 6% compared to the same period in 2024. Marketing service revenue was $17 million, and online game revenue was $120 million. Total revenue for 2025 was $584 million. Marketing service revenue was $60 million, and online game revenue was $506 million. Important economic data and events preview 00:00 on the day after Beijing time: NY Fed 1-year inflation expectations for January 2:30 on the day after Beijing time: Fed Governor Waller speaks about digital assets 3:30 on the day after Beijing time: Fed Governor Mester attends an event at Boston University 4:15 on the day after Beijing time: 2027 FOMC voter, Atlanta Fed President Bostic speaks on monetary policy and economic outlook 6:00 on the day after Beijing time: Fed Governor Mester participates in podcast recording Earnings forecast Tuesday morning: ON Semiconductor Corporation (ON.US) Tuesday pre-market: BP p.l.c. Sponsored ADR (BP.US), Koninklijke Philips N.V. Sponsored ADR (PHG.US), Honda (HMC.US), Astrazeneca PLC Sponsored ADR (AZN.US), Barclays PLC Sponsored ADR (BCS.US), Coca-Cola Company (KO.US), Datadog (DDOG.US), Canaan Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (CAN.US)