American consumer confidence rises to a six-month high: producers warming up, non-producers under pressure.

Consumer confidence in the United States unexpectedly rebounded in February, rising to the highest level in the past six months, mainly benefiting from the improved confidence of high-income groups due to the rise in stock markets and asset prices. According to preliminary data released by the University of Michigan, the consumer confidence index rose to 57.3 in February, higher than January's 56.4, and significantly better than the median expectation of 55 given by polled economists. The survey covered the period from January 20 to February 2. The report also shows that consumers' short-term inflation expectations have eased. Respondents expect an annualized inflation rate of 3.5% in the next 12 months, the lowest level in a year. However, long-term inflation expectations have slightly increased, indicating that inflation concerns have not completely dissipated. The data also shows that the improvement in consumer confidence is mainly concentrated among people holding financial assets such as stocks, while the confidence of those who do not hold assets remains weak. During the survey period, the S&P 500 index approached historical highs, driving consumers' assessment of their current financial situation to a four-month high. Joanne Hsu, director of the University of Michigan Consumer Survey, stated in a release that this trend is consistent with the significant rise in asset prices, "Asset appreciation benefits asset owners, but does not benefit others." Despite the overall improvement in confidence, concerns about the job market among respondents are increasing. The report shows that consumers' assessment of the probability of losing their jobs rose to the highest level since July 2020. Recent data also reflects a lack of momentum in the US labor market: job vacancies in December fell to the lowest level since 2020, private sector job growth in January was only 22,000, and the number of layoffs announced by companies in January was the worst since 2009. Looking at the sub-indexes, the current conditions index rose to 58.3, reaching a four-month high, while the future expectations index slightly fell. The conditions for durable goods purchases also improved, reaching the best level since October last year. Hsu pointed out that overall consumer spending remains resilient, reflecting disproportionate spending contributions from wealthier and more confident consumers, while also indicating that consumers with lower wealth and confidence are behaving more cautiously in their spending.