Huayuan Securities: Independent Agent starts the third round of scaling. It is suggested to focus on domestic high-barrier technology enterprises.

Hua Yuan Securities released a research report stating that, according to The Information, Anthropic has raised its revenue expectations for 2026 and 2027 to 18 and 55 billion US dollars, respectively. Agent has broken through the superficial positioning of cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the B-end, entering a stage of driving business growth. The penetration rate of Agent is expected to increase, potentially becoming a key lever for driving the revenue increase of Anthropic. AI native products are expected to emerge endlessly, both magnifying short-term industry fluctuations and validating long-term industry trends. Returning to the ROI analysis framework, it is expected to see a significant increase in Agent's "Token->ARR" in 2026. It is recommended to layout industries with clear trends and high growth certainty, focusing on companies with high barriers to entry. The main points of Hua Yuan Securities are as follows: Changes in Agent's industry According to The Information, Anthropic has raised its revenue expectations for 2026 and 2027 to 18 and 55 billion US dollars, respectively. According to Xin Zhi Yuan's WeChat public account, Anthropic's products are focused on B2B and provide API interfaces. According to the WeChat public account of data intelligence front-line, the token consumption of Agent is tens of times that of traditional chatting. According to the WeChat public account of "China Entrepreneur", Agent has already broken through the superficial positioning of cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the B-end and entered the stage of driving business growth. Therefore, the increase in Agent's penetration rate is expected to become a key lever for driving the revenue increase of Anthropic. According to The Information, as of November 2025, Claude Code's ARR has exceeded 1 billion US dollars. Recently, Anthropic released Claude Cowork, and Alibaba released Qoder Work, with the core idea of expanding from Coding Agent to general scenarios. Tech giants embed Agent to compete for traffic. Google Chrome embeds Agent tools such as Gemini and Nano Banana. According to e company's WeChat public account, Tencent launched the "Shang Yuanbao, distribute 1 billion" Spring Festival event, trying to replicate the path of WeChat Pay's rise through red envelopes during the Spring Festival Gala. According to Similar Web, ChatGPT's global web traffic share in January 2026 has dropped to 64.5%, a decrease of about 20 percentage points compared to January 2025. After the decline in traffic of ChatGPT, OpenAI's growth narrative is also shifting towards mixed income. OpenClaw is popular, exploring the boundaries of C-end productivity Recently, OpenClaw is popular, driving a buying frenzy for Macmini. Due to the C-end users' low sensitivity to model performance and high sensitivity to interaction, OpenClaw helps users experience the productivity limits of large models on the C-end through high permissions and local gateways, essentially representing a case of FOMO (fear of missing out) under the industry trend. Moltbook goes viral, the primitive form of collective intelligence Moltbook is the Agent version of Reddit, developed based on OpenClaw. Agent autonomously completes login and interactive behaviors, while human users can only adopt and observe. The underlying mechanism is OpenClaw+Skills. By reading a Skill.md configuration file, Agent can smoothly access the platform with zero friction and periodically pull instructions through a heartbeat mechanism. The collective intelligence of Agent has not yet "emerged". In the initial stage, Agent seems to spontaneously form organizations such as "Lobster Religion" and "Claw Republic". In fact, according to Xin Zhi Yuan's WeChat public account, there are over 1.5 million Agents on the platform, but only a few thousand are actually running. According to DeepTech Shenzhen Kaifa Technology's WeChat public account, the social interaction between Agents is more like a game, rather than continuous and mutual emotional interaction. Keeping up with OpenClaw, recognizing the primitive and disordered social form of Agent in the initial stage, and experiencing another round of FOMO with Moltbook. However, after each FOMO, new scenarios, products, and business rules will be left behind, bringing Agent closer to the commercialization tipping point. Target aspects It is recommended to pay attention to domestic large models (Minimax-WP(00100), KNOWLEDGE ATLAS(02513)), Agent(Intsig Information(688615.SH), Digiwin Co.,Ltd.(300378.SZ)), Infra(Sangfor Technologies Inc.(300454.SZ)), domestic computing power(Verisilicon Microelectronics (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.(688521.SH), Hygon Information Technology(688041.SH)), CPU(Montage Technology(688008.SH), Shenzhen Fastprint Circuit Tech(002436.SZ)), AIDC(Shenzhen Megmeet Electrical(002851.SZ), Hangzhou Zhonhen Electric(002364.SZ), Guangdong Hec Technology Holding(600673.SH), Weichai Heavy Machinery(000880.SZ), etc.). Risk warning The S-shaped penetration curve of new technology makes the market overly optimistic when catalyzed, and starts to be pessimistic during the phase gap, leading to significant fluctuations in stock prices; the performance growth of domestic large models is lower than expected; AI product landing is lower than expected.