Guotai Haitong: Risk preference of innovative pharmaceutical sector clearly restored, policy, mergers and acquisitions, and research and development resonate to catalyze structural opportunities.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the implementation of policies, global M&A recovery, and positive clinical data collectively boost risk appetite in the innovative drug industry. In 2026, key data verification will be achieved for PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies and Pan-RAS therapy in the oncology field; the weight loss and metabolism market will focus on expanding into the self-pay market and upgrading small nucleic acid technology; the immunology field will focus on the next generation antibody platform POC data; and in the central nervous system (CNS) field, breakthroughs are expected in A monoclonal antibody therapy and delivery technology. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: Macro and Industry Environment: Policy implementation + M&A recovery, evident restoration of risk appetite in innovative drugs With the uncertainties in the policy sector gradually settling, significant clinical data being released, and global M&A activities picking up, the biotechnology and pharmaceutical sectors of the US stock market showed significant strength in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating an improvement in investor sentiment towards innovative drug investments in 2026. Around the time of the JPM Conference, the trading of multinational pharmaceutical and biotech companies was highly active, with Chinese innovative drug assets seeing increased levels of transactions and attractiveness globally. Oncology: PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies gaining momentum, Pan-RAS entering a phase of realization In the oncology field, PD-1/VEGF dual antibodies have transitioned from "mechanism verification" to a stage of "clinical and industrial resonance", with multiple multinational companies advancing various global Phase III trials for high-value indications such as NSCLC. Approval and data reading are expected to be key catalysts within the year. At the same time, precision Pan-RAS therapy is advancing in first-line/second-line and combination schemes for pancreatic cancer and NSCLC, with critical Phase III data expected to be released in 2026, marking a substantial phase of realization in this direction. Weight loss and metabolism: Focus on expansion into the self-pay market, small nucleic acids driving treatment paradigm upgrades Amid limited insurance coverage for obesity indications in the US and high out-of-pocket costs, the self-pay population is becoming an important source for the expansion of the GLP-1 market. Pharmaceutical companies are actively increasing accessibility through direct sales platforms, pricing adjustments, and multi-channel distribution, to meet the elastic demand. The use of small nucleic acids for weight loss primarily represents a medium-term upgrading variable, with potential for weight loss quality improvement and fat distribution alteration in combination with GLP-1, which may drive weight loss treatments towards evolving from "single hormone-driven" to "multi-pathway regulation". Immunology: Concentration risk from MNC major products highlights, structural opportunities from 2026 POC data readings MNCs in the immunology business have high dependence on a few major products, with income concentration risks becoming more apparent against a backdrop of patent cycles and intensified competition. Incremental opportunities mainly come from two pathways: firstly, the next generation antibody platform (dual/multi antibodies, B cell depletion, etc.) will see intensive POC data readings in 2026, potentially leading to new rounds of business development and asset revaluation; secondly, the trend towards oral formulations is gradually becoming clearer, as the long-term administration nature of immunology diseases determines the natural advantage of oral formulations in compliance and differentiated competition, making technologies such as BTK, TYK2/JAK, oral PROTAC, oral cyclic peptides, PDE4, etc. worth continuous monitoring. CNS: Core theme is the advancement of A monoclonal antibody therapy, BBB technology amplifying long-term space The core investment theme in the CNS field still focuses on the advancement of A monoclonal antibody therapy from early symptoms in the population to preclinical AD, with the expectation that data from Lilly's Donanemab Phase III trials will be a key catalyst in opening up the "early intervention" market space. Previous data has shown that populations with low tau levels and in earlier stages have advantages in efficacy and safety windows. Additionally, the next-generation A therapy represented by Roche's Trontinemab, utilizing BBB shuttle technology, achieves stronger clearance effects and improved safety at lower doses and shorter durations, potentially raising the treatment ceiling for AD; supplementary directions such as systemic delivery of small nucleic acids mainly reflect innovations in medium to long-term delivery methods. Risk Warning: 1) Risks of research and development progress falling short of expectations; 2) Risks of drug sales falling short of expectations; 3) Policy risks; 4) Industry risks; 5) Other risks.