New stock outlook | Dominate domestically, under pressure overseas, will domestic coffee machine GeMaiLe seek a solution in Hong Kong?

Under the wave of accelerated penetration of global coffee culture and resonance with the upgrading of consumption in China, the Chinese coffee machine industry is ushering in a historic turning point - transitioning from a "niche tool" to a "lifestyle carrier" and from OEM manufacturing to independent technology and brand going global. As a benchmark enterprise in this transformation wave, Greemi Holdings Limited (hereinafter referred to as "Greemi") has officially made a move to the Hong Kong capital market. According to the HKEX disclosed on January 29, Greemi has submitted its application for listing on the HKEX Main Board, with CITIC SEC as its sole sponsor. In the current wave of domestic substitution entering the coffee equipment industry, how well has Greemi, which has been deeply involved in the industry for more than ten years, performed? Significant effects of strategic transformation, steady increase in revenue and net profit According to the prospectus, Greemi is a Chinese professional coffee machine company. After more than ten years of development, the company has established a comprehensive business model covering product design, R&D, manufacturing, sales, and after-sales service, achieving comprehensive coverage of the value chain of the coffee machine industry. Currently, the company's products are distributed to over 60 countries and regions around the world, with a cumulative sales volume of over 2 million units, serving more than 400,000 users, and has become a representative Chinese coffee machine brand for international markets. According to Frost & Sullivan, in terms of revenue, Greemi ranks as the second largest coffee machine brand in China and the largest domestic coffee machine brand, with a market share of approximately 7.5% in 2024. In the same year, in terms of revenue, Greemi is the largest brand in China's semi-automatic Italian coffee machine industry with a market share of approximately 16.0%, and also the largest brand in the separate semi-automatic Italian coffee machine industry with a market share of approximately 27.9%. With a leading market position, the company's revenue has also been growing year by year. In 2023, 2024, and the first nine months of 2025, Greemi achieved revenues of approximately RMB 308 million, 498 million, and 449 million respectively. In terms of business segments, Greemi has developed a series of Italian coffee machine products suitable for various scenarios such as homes, offices, restaurants, and cafes, with a rich SKU, providing professional, reliable, and aesthetically valuable coffee making equipment for different user groups. In addition, the company has expanded its product line to professional bean grinders, coffee beans, and other coffee machine accessories. Although known as the "high-end coffee machine representative of Chinese products", the company's revenue actually shows dominance in semi-automatic machines and stable growth in commercial use. During the reporting period, its revenue from semi-automatic Italian coffee machines was RMB 239 million, 423 million, 263 million, and 380 million respectively, showing a significant growth trend, and the proportion of revenue has been continuously increasing, from 77.6% in 2023 to 84.6% in the first nine months of 2025, further consolidating its core business position. In contrast, revenue from commercial scenarios (including commercial Italian coffee machines and dual-use Italian coffee machines) has remained stable, with a total of RMB 139 million, 230 million, and 211 million during the reporting period, but the revenue proportion has fluctuated, from approximately 45% in 2023 to about 47% in the first nine months of 2025, with an overall steady expansion in scale. The household Italian coffee machine business has shown steady performance, with revenue increasing from RMB 100 million in 2023 to RMB 194 million in 2024, and the proportion increasing from 32.5% to 38.9%, indicating continued penetration under the trend of consumption upgrading. By the first nine months of 2025, revenue from this business had reached RMB 170 million, with a proportion of 37.8%, becoming the company's second largest revenue pillar. Other product lines, including accessories and bean grinders, have shown a noticeable trend of strategic contraction, with revenue decreasing from RMB 44 million in 2023 to RMB 22 million in the first nine months of 2025, and the revenue proportion also dropping significantly from 14.4% to 4.9%, reflecting the company's further focus on its core coffee machine business and optimizing its product structure through strategic adjustments. In terms of business model, the company has built a business architecture driven by "own brand + third-party ODM". The own brand business serves as the core growth engine and brand value carrier, directly conveying brand positioning to end consumers and commercial users; while the ODM business relies on the company's capabilities in product design and large-scale manufacturing to provide technical and production support to domestic and foreign brand customers, achieving industrial chain synergy and capacity optimization. In recent years, the company's strategic focus has shifted significantly towards its own brand, reflecting a transformational upgrade path from "manufacturing support" to "brand leadership". From 2023 to 2024, the proportion of revenue from its own brand increased significantly from 69.2% to 82.4%, and in the first nine months of 2025, it reached 83.3%, becoming a key driver of the company's overall growth. On the other hand, revenue from the third-party ODM business has continued to shrink, decreasing from RMB 95 million in 2023 to RMB 87 million in 2024, with a proportion dropping from 30.8% to 17.6%, and further decreasing to 16.7% in the first nine months of 2025. The company has admitted that this change stems from a proactive strategic focus - although the ODM business still has value in maintaining production scale and optimizing supply chain efficiency, its weight in the company's long-term growth strategy has been systematically reduced. With revenue growth, the company's net profit performance has also been steadily increasing. Greemi's total profit and revenue increased significantly from RMB 22.05 million in 2023 to RMB 40.05 million in 2024, an increase of 81.8%. By the first nine months of 2025, this figure reached RMB 53.97 million, surpassing the full-year level of 2024. However, it is important to note that the company's gross profit margin level has shown fluctuations. During the reporting period, the company's gross profit margin was 41.9%, 40.5%, and 44.1% respectively. The company explained that the decline in gross profit margin in 2024 was mainly due to the impact of factory relocation on production efficiency, and with the recovery of production capacity and the increase in the proportion of ecommerce sales, the company's gross profit margin has rebounded in 2025. Thriving Coffee Machine Industry Behind the upward performance is the thriving industry that Greemi is in. According to the report from Frost & Sullivan, the global and Chinese coffee machine market has shown strong and sustained growth in recent years, with the home sector being particularly significant as a core driver of industry development. The global market has doubled from $15.3 billion in 2019 to $30.6 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.9%, and is expected to further expand to $59.5 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 14.1%. Focusing on the Chinese market, its growth rate is significantly higher than the global average. The overall market size has rapidly increased from $2 billion in 2019 to $5.3 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.5%, and is expected to reach $12.5 billion by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.7%. In terms of industry competition, the Chinese coffee machine market is fiercely competitive, with international giants and local enterprises vying to attract consumer attention. According to Frost & Sullivan's report, the total revenue of the Chinese coffee machine industry in 2024 was $5.3 billion, with the top five market participants accounting for approximately 44.1% of the market share. In 2024, Greemi was the second largest coffee machine brand in the Chinese market, with a market share of approximately 7.5%. In terms of revenue, by 2024, the company was the largest domestic brand in the Chinese coffee machine market. It is worth noting that although Greemi's position in the domestic market is stable and revenue continues to grow, its performance in overseas markets shows some pressure. From 2023 to the first nine months of 2025, the company's dependence on the Chinese market has significantly increased, with the revenue proportion increasing from 69.7% to 80.9%, while the proportion of overseas business has correspondingly decreased. Of particular concern is the performance in the US market, with revenue dropping from RMB 31.2 million in 2023 to RMB 10.7 million in 2024, a decrease of 79.3%, and although it slightly rebounded to RMB 10.4 million in the first nine months of 2025, it is still far below previous levels. The company explained that this was mainly due to significant reductions in cocktail machine orders by related customers since 2024, and although it is trying to stabilize the market through online channels, the issue of a single business structure and high customer concentration has emerged as a potential risk for overseas expansion. Meanwhile, the Asian (excluding China) market, although stable, contributed revenue of RMB 64.2 million in the first nine months of 2025, accounting for 14.3%, but its growth momentum has not fully been realized, making it difficult to offset the impact of fluctuations in the European and American markets. In the context of the continuous expansion of the global coffee machine market and the acceleration of Chinese companies going global, the decline in the proportion of Greemi's overseas business may not only limit its ability to gain global growth dividends but also make its revenue structure more susceptible to changes in a single regional economy or consumer environment. If the company fails to effectively optimize its overseas customer structure, expand its diversified product lines and regional markets, its long-term growth equilibrium and risk resilience may be put to the test. Driven by the dual forces of the global coffee consumption wave and the upgrading of Chinese manufacturing, Greemi has established a significant industry position and growth momentum in the domestic market with its deep accumulation in semi-automatic Italian coffee machines and a clear own brand strategy. However, facing increasingly fierce industry competition and structural challenges - including high dependence on a single product line and the domestic market, temporary contractions in overseas business, especially in the US market, and the potential risks brought by high customer concentration - the company's long-term growth path still faces challenges. This listing in Hong Kong is not only a crucial step for Greemi to broaden its financing channels, strengthen R&D and production capacity, but also an important opportunity to optimize its business structure, promote brand globalization, and build a more resilient and diversified growth curve. In the future, whether the company can consolidate its domestic advantages while effectively breaking through the overseas market bottlenecks, achieve a leap from "Chinese leadership" to "global influence" in branding, will be a core focus of investors' continued attention.