Sinolink Securities: Short-term pressure on fuel cell industry, long-term potential driven by policy and innovation.

CICC released a research report stating that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the promotion progress of fuel cell vehicles is lower than expected, there is still a gap from the target, and the fuel cell industry generally faces issues such as weak growth, poor profitability, and receivables backlog. Despite the short-term pressure facing the industry, China's hydrogen energy strategy remains clear, and it is expected that a new round of support policies will be introduced, along with the continuous expansion of application scenarios. The fuel cell industry is expected to gradually overcome short-term difficulties and has great long-term development potential. CICC's main points are as follows: In the fourth quarter of 2025, there was a rush to install fuel cell vehicles, but there is still a gap from the phased target of 2025. In terms of sales, since 2024, the growth momentum of fuel cell vehicle sales has been insufficient, affected by policy windows. In the fourth quarter of 2025, there was a rush to install fuel cell vehicles. In terms of price, the average price of fuel cell systems has decreased by nearly 90% since 2018, posing a significant challenge to the profitability of fuel cell manufacturers. The industry as a whole is still in a bottoming phase. Costs, infrastructure, and enterprise cash flow are the three major bottlenecks restricting the promotion of fuel cell vehicles. The promotion of fuel cell vehicles still faces multiple obstacles: the first is the emergence of cost disadvantages under the subsidy decline, intensifying the competition for electric cars; the second is that the construction speed of hydrogen refueling stations in recent years is not as expected, making it difficult to solve the convenience of hydrogen refueling, and the high cost of hydrogen refueling station construction leads to insufficient investment motivation; the third is the long period of subsidy fund disbursement, the backlog of receivables will put pressure on the company's operations and may limit the R&D and expansion capabilities of fuel cell manufacturers. The hydrogen energy strategy is firm, new scenarios are emerging, and long-term development is promising. Despite short-term pressure, China positions hydrogen energy as an important part of the future national energy system, and hydrogen energy is an important way to achieve carbon neutrality in non-electric fields. In terms of policy, the planning of the hydrogen energy industry in many places continues to advance, and support policies such as toll reductions and the construction of "hydrogen corridors" are following one after the other; in terms of application, fuel cell applications are penetrating from transportation to power generation, energy storage, rail transit, and other fields. The bank believes that a second growth curve can be expected to support the industry's long-term development. Valuation and recommendations: Optimistic about the medium and long-term development of the fuel cell industry, it is recommended to pay attention to fuel cell system manufacturers such as SINOHYTEC and REFIRE. Risk reminder: Policies may not be implemented as expected, fuel cell and hydrogen energy cost reductions may not meet expectations, and industry competition may intensify.