Preview of US Stock Market | The three major stock index futures fell together, with talk of the "end of software stocks" rising. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) announced its financial report after hours.

1. Before the US stock market opens on February 5 (Thursday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell together. As of the report, Dow futures fell by 0.30%, S&P 500 index futures fell by 0.52%, and Nasdaq futures fell by 0.68%. 2. As of the report, the Germany DAX index fell by 0.63%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell by 0.40%, the France CAC40 index fell by 0.06%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell by 0.41%. 3. As of the report, WTI crude oil fell by 2.15%, to $63.74 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 2.06%, to $68.03 per barrel. Market News Software stocks collapse triggers risk aversion: The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. sector index has fallen for seven consecutive days, with hedge fund holdings reaching historic lows. The continued sharp decline in software stocks has made technology investors anxious, leading them to buy hedging tools to prevent further declines. The software sector index of the Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. has declined for the seventh consecutive trading day, with a year-to-date decline of 19%, dragging down the Nasdaq 100 index by 1.4% year-to-date. Market panic has driven the cost of insuring against a 10% decline in the QQQ ETF to the highest level since March 2020, and the implied volatility of the software sector has reached a new high since the tariff turmoil in April. Major players such as Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Salesforce, Palantir, etc., have seen double-digit declines in their stock prices, with Adobe's stock price plummeting by 20%, and its depressed valuation is seen as a warning signal of industry risk. Data from Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. shows that the software sector has evaporated $2 trillion in market value from its peak last year, and hedge fund net holdings have dropped to a historic low of 4.2%. US forms alliance with allies to establish a trade protection zone, plans to set a price floor for rare earths using tariffs. On Wednesday, U.S. Vice President Vance announced a new measure to stabilize the critical rare earth market prices and said that the Trump administration plans to use tariffs to achieve this goal. Vance revealed during a speech at the U.S. Department of State that the U.S. plans to create a protected trade zone that is "protected from mandatory price floors and free from external shocks," and will try to attract more countries to join. He pointed out that this move will create favorable conditions for private mining companies to increase investment in rare earth mining - these minerals are sometimes called the "cornerstone of the modern economy." Vance said, "These reference prices will be supported by adjustable tariffs, forming a price floor to ensure pricing rationality." The political upheaval in GEO Group Inc assets' landscape! Markets Pulse survey: U.S. bond safe-haven properties are waning, consensus leaning towards strong stocks and weak bonds. The latest Markets Pulse survey shows that most respondents believe that in the context of international policy dynamics dominating the market, adjusted return on stocks will be higher than bonds. Among the 138 respondents surveyed from Jan. 28 to Feb. 4, over half believe that trade and political developments related to GEO Group Inc will be the biggest catalyst for market volatility, while 46% of respondents choose monetary policy. In this context, nearly two-thirds of participants expect the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds to rise. "The end of software stocks" view sweeps Wall Street as the narrative of "AI reshaping software profitability" quietly spreads. The pessimistic narrative of "Software-mageddon" in the global stock market is snowballing. Now, global investors, including large Wall Street institutional investors, are fiercely debating whether it is time to issue bullish calls on the software stocks that have been hit hard recently. Looking at the recent trend of global large software stock capital flows, some institutional funds have begun to buy low on these software stocks that have experienced steep declines and even halved their stock prices, and they agree with Huang Renxun's positive views on software stocks - that the market has mistakenly killed the strong fundamentals of software giants focusing on "AI + core operational processes," but some investors remain cautious. Individual Stock News On the eve of the highly-anticipated earnings release, Amazon.com, Inc.(AMZN.US) was fined $70 million by the German antitrust authorities. The German antitrust regulator announced on Thursday that the U.S. cloud computing and e-commerce leader Amazon.com, Inc. must stop controlling prices for retailers on its German platform, and the antitrust authority also confiscated 59 million (approximately $70 million) from this large U.S. technology company. At a time when Germany has asked Amazon.com, Inc. to cancel its price control policy and seized $70 million from the company, this is on the eve of the company's fourth quarter earnings report. Wall Street investment firms have high hopes for Amazon.com, Inc.'s earnings data and future outlook, hoping that the company will announce strong e-commerce sales and growth data in cloud computing to boost the bullish sentiment for software stocks and the entire technology sector that has recently been subject to large-scale sell-offs. Gold and copper surge together, Barrick Gold Corporation(B.US) Q4 revenue increases by 64%, dividend surges by 140% compared to the previous quarter! Announces IPO to split North American gold assets. Barrick Gold Corporation released strong performance data and announced a landmark IPO project to promote the listing of its top-tier North American gold assets through an IPO. At the time of this IPO announcement, this global second-largest gold producer is trying to regroup and seize the unprecedented surge in gold prices to make stronger profits, after trailing behind its competitors in the gold mining industry for many years. Barrick Gold Corporation's quarterly cash flow and earnings per share hit record highs, in line with analysts' expectations for gold and copper production levels reaching $70 billion by 2025. Barrick Gold Corporation's fourth-quarter gold production increased by 5% from the third quarter to reach 871,000 ounces. The overall revenue in the fourth quarter was approximately $6 billion, a significant increase of 64.4% year on year. SiTime(SITM.US) Q4 revenue reached $1.13 billion, a 61% increase compared to the previous year. SiTime's fourth-quarter revenue reached $1.133 billion, a 66% increase year on year and a 36% increase from the previous quarter, with full-year revenue totaling $3.267 billion, a 61% increase. The communication, enterprise, and data center business (CED) contributed 57% of total revenue with $646 million, a whopping 160% increase over the previous year and becoming the core growth engine. Non-GAAP net profit was $413 million, with earnings per share rising from $0.48 in the previous year to $1.53. The company announced plans to acquire Renesas' timing business, expecting an additional $300 million in revenue within 12 months after the transaction, with a gross margin of about 70%, and expects to increase non-GAAP earnings per share in the first full fiscal year. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2026, management expects revenue to be between $101 million and $104 million, with non-GAAP earnings per share guidance of $1.10 to $1.17, while maintaining a long-term annual revenue growth target of 25%-30%. Alphabet Inc. Class C(GOOGL.US) AI monetization slightly alleviates concerns about "burning money": Gemini drives Q4 cloud revenue beyond expectations, while the capital expenditure guidance for this year doubles to $180 billion. Alphabet Inc. Class C's parent company Alphabet's Q4 overall revenue increased by 18% to $113.8 billion, surpassing expectations of $111.5 billion, mainly driven by the accelerated growth of Alphabet Inc. Class C's service business and the increasing importance of Alphabet Inc. Class C's cloud business. Sales for Q4 were $97.23 billion, higher than the analyst's average expectation of $95.2 billion. Q4 net profit reached $34.46 billion, an increase of nearly 30% from the previous year. Operating profit increased by 16% to $35.9 billion, with an operating profit margin staying at a stable 32%. Earnings per share were $2.82, higher than the expected $2.63. As of the report, the pre-market stock price continued to decline by 3.33%. Weak Q2 performance guidance signals instability in the smartphone market, Qualcomm(QCOM.US) plunges in pre-market trading. Global smartphone processor manufacturer Qualcomm has given a weak performance forecast for the current fiscal quarter, exacerbating concerns about storage chip shortages causing price increases and further suppressing smartphone demand. As of the report, Qualcomm plunged more than 12% in pre-market trading on Thursday. The financial report shows that in the first quarter of fiscal year ended December 28, 2025, Qualcomm's quarterly revenue increased by 5% year on year to $12.25 billion, better than the analyst's average expectation of $12.18 billion; the adjusted net profit was $3.78 billion, a 1% decrease year on year; the adjusted earnings per share was $3.50, better than the analyst's average expectation of $3.40. Looking ahead, Qualcomm expects revenue to be between $10.2 billion and $11 billion in the second quarter ending in March, which is below the analyst's average expectation of $11.2 billion. Arm(ARM.US) performance outlook falls short of expectations, plunges more than 7% in pre-market trading, as the "faith" in AI chips faces a test? Chip design giant Arm Holdings Plc saw its stock price drop significantly after releasing performance guidance, as its revenue forecast failed to meet the expectations of investors who are increasingly skeptical of AI-related companies. The company stated in a statement that its revenue projection for the fourth quarter is approximately $14.7 billion. While this is higher than the analyst's average expectation of $14 billion, some forecasts went as high as over $15 billion. Excluding specific items, the expected earnings per share is $0.58, higher than the previous estimate of $0.56. In the third quarter ending on December 31, Arm's revenue increased by 26% year on year to $1.24 billion, and earnings per share were $0.43, slightly higher than the market's average expectations. After the financial report was released, Arm's stock price plummeted by over 7% in pre-market trading. So far this year, the stock has already accumulated a 4% decline by Wednesday's close. Emerging markets see reserves surge hurt profitability, after the failed acquisition, BBVA.US's growth prospects are called into question. Spain's second-largest bank, BBVA, posted fourth-quarter profits in line with analyst estimates, with some revenue growth, but increased provisions in major markets such as Turkey and Mexico partly offset the positive impact. Net profit of the bank increased by 4.1% to 2.53 billion (approximately $2.98 billion). Analysts had previously estimated 2.54 billion. Adjusted earnings per share were 1.78, higher than the 1.68 recorded for the same period in the previous year. Net interest income reached 26.28 billion, up 4.0%. Provisions increased 19% from the same period last year, and a key capital strength indicator did not meet the estimated level. After CKH Holdings CEO spent more than a year driving the failed acquisition of a small rival, Savadell Bank, BBVA is now focusing on developing its existing business. Shell(SHEL.US) Q4 profit hits almost a five-year low: chemical business "bleeding", oil trading silent, can the $3.5 billion buyback save the day? Shell's fourth-quarter adjusted profit reached $3.26 billion, a decrease of 11% compared to its market-expected $3.53 billion. Factors such as declining oil prices, poor oil trading performance, and the chemical business facing challenges jointly put pressure on Shell's profit situation. In terms of revenue, Shell's total revenue for Q4 was $64.093 billion, a slight decrease of about 3.3% compared to $66.281 billion in the same period in 2024. Adjusted earnings per share were $0.57, slightly lower than $0.60 in the same period in 2024 and did not reach the analyst's previous expectations in the range of $0.69 to $1.29. The company announced a 4% increase in dividends to $0.372 per share in the fourth quarter, and simultaneously launched a $3.5 billion share repurchase plan. Share price hits its largest annual decline in a year! Revenue growth + optimistic full-year guidance, Vodafone Group Plc Sponsored ADR(VOD.US) stumbles in the German market. Despite achieving revenue growth in the third quarter of Vodafone Group Plc Sponsored ADR's fiscal year 2026 and expectations for full-year profit and cash flow to be at the upper end of the guidance range, the company's stock price saw its largest annual decline in a year on Thursday, as its growth in its largest market, Germany, was below market expectations. The financial report shows that the company's total revenue reached 10.5 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, mainly driven by increased service revenue and contributions from the merger of Three UK and Telekom Romania assets. Group service revenue increased by 7.3% to 8.5 billion, with organic growth of 5.4%, slightly lower than the previous quarter, with strong performances in the Turkish and African markets offsetting the adverse impact of exchange rate fluctuations. NIO Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A Company(NIO.US) releases profit forecast: Expects to achieve operating profit from RMB 700 million to 1.2 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. According to the company's unaudited combined management accounts and information currently available to the board of directors, it is estimated that the company will record an adjusted operating profit (non-GAAP) of approximately RMB 700 million (about $100 million) to RMB 1.2 billion (about $172 million) in the fourth quarter of 2025, based on a preliminary assessment. This is the first time the company has recorded quarterly adjusted operating profit. This is mainly due to the combined impact of the following factors: 1. The company's sales volume continued to grow in the fourth quarter of 2025; 2. Favorable product mix drove car gross profit margin optimization; 3. The company continues to implement comprehensive cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures. According to GAAP, the company is expected to record operating profit of about RMB 200 million (about $29 million) to RMB 700 million (about $100 million) in the fourth quarter of 2025. Policy reversal: Trump says he will not intervene in the Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD.US) acquisition. U.S. President Trump stated that he will not get involved in the acquisition battle between the streaming giant Netflix (NFLX.US) and Parlaun Sky (PSKY.US) for Warner Bros. Discovery, which is a significant change from two months ago when he said he would participate in the approval process of the deal. Trump said in a news interview, "I have not been involved in this," "Both sides have called me. This is competition between the two sides, but I have decided not to intervene. The Justice Department will handle this." He added, "There is a theory that one of the companies is too large and should not be allowed to make this deal, while another voice holds a different opinion. They are fighting it out - there will eventually be a winner." Upcoming Important Economic Data and Events 9:30 PM Beijing time: Initial jobless claims in the U.S. for the week ending January 31st. 10:00 PM Beijing time: Revised % of durable goods orders in the U.S. for December, % of factory orders in the U.S. for December. 11:00 PM Beijing time: JOLTs job openings in the U.S. for December. 11:50 PM Beijing time: FOMC voting member for 2027, President of the Atlanta Fed Bostick participates in a dialogue and Q&A session on monetary policy. Earnings Preview Friday morning: Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) Friday pre-market: Toyota (TM.US)