Bitcoin continues to plummet, with market forecasts betting that it will drop to $65,000 this year, with a probability as high as 82%.

Recently, the price of Bitcoin has been continuously weakening, falling to the lowest level since US President Trump took office. According to trading data from the cryptocurrency prediction market, the world's largest cryptocurrency may still face further downside risks this year. Data shows that Bitcoin has retraced about 40% since reaching a historical high of over $126,000 in October last year. Market momentum, narrative logic, and its attributes as a "safe haven asset" all seem to be weakening simultaneously. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is around $73,200. Contract trading on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket reflects a significantly bearish investor sentiment. Data from the platform shows that the market currently implies a high probability of Bitcoin dropping to $65,000 this year, at 82%, which is about 13% lower than the current price. More pessimistic bets are also on the rise: the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $55,000 has increased to about 60%, while the probability of the price rebounding to $100,000 has decreased from 80% at the beginning of the year to 54%. The bearish sentiment in short-term contracts is more pronounced. A February contract from Polymarket shows that the market expects the probability of Bitcoin dropping below $70,000 by March 1 to be 72%, a rise of over 35 percentage points since the beginning of the month. With about $1.7 million in bets on this outcome, it reflects the deepening pessimism among traders in the background of ETF fund outflows and the failure of macro correlations. Marex analyst Ilan Solot stated that this trend "basically reflects the current market's bearish sentiment," including factors such as Bitcoin's recent failure to act as a safe haven. Since an unexpected weekend flash crash in early October last year triggered the liquidation of billions of dollars in leveraged positions, the sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has remained depressed, and token prices have failed to recover effectively. The recent round of selling over the weekend further intensified the market gloom. The total market value of the global cryptocurrency market is currently around $2.5 trillion, significantly lower than the peak of over $4 trillion in October last year. Pantera Capital founder Dan Morehead pointed out that the bear market is particularly cruel to leveraged investors, with "the size of the funds destroyed on October 10 far exceeding the pullback in November 2022," causing immense pain and leading to some investors exiting the market long-term. In terms of fund flows, the significant driver that pushed Bitcoin up last year, inflows into cryptocurrency ETFs are noticeably weakening. Data shows that over the past three months, US-listed cryptocurrency ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows approaching $4 billion. Research from Glassnode and K33 indicates that the average trader is currently in a losing position. Citi analyst Alex Saunders stated in a report that there has been a significant cooling in inflows into US spot ETFs, which were originally an important source of new funds for the market. "With a lack of new demand, long-term holders are also starting to worry about Bitcoin's cyclical weakness." It is worth noting that the collective "wisdom" of the prediction market contrasts sharply with some bullish views on Wall Street. Prominent investor Tom Lee had predicted in November last year that Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 to $200,000, but this expectation did not materialize. Despite downgrades in some forecasts by institutions such as Standard Chartered Bank and Bernstein, they still believe that Bitcoin could reach $150,000 by the end of the year, betting that the market will ultimately see a meaningful rebound.