Who benefits the most from the US-India trade agreement? Jefferies names several retail leaders.

With the latest trade agreement between the United States and India, investment bank Jefferies Financial Group Inc. (Jefferies) pointed out in its latest report that this move will reshape the global supply chain landscape and bring significant profit boost to the retail industry. It is understood that the core of the agreement lies in resolving long-standing tariff disputes, with the U.S. reducing import tariffs on most Indian goods from the previously punitive level of up to 50% to 18%, while India has also promised to reduce trade barriers for specific U.S. goods and increase purchases of U.S. Energy Corp., Shenzhen Agricultural Power Group, and finished products. Another key condition is India's commitment to gradually phase out Russian oil purchases and shift a large portion of its energy purchases to suppliers from the United States and some U.S. allies. Both sides have stated that this partial agreement alleviates tariff tensions, but more deep-seated structural issues will be left for subsequent negotiations to resolve. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analysis believes that this transformation not only enhances India's competitiveness in labor-intensive industries such as textiles, leather, gems, and jewelry surpassing competitors like Vietnam and Pakistan, but also directly alleviates cost pressures for U.S. importers, indicating that India's position as an alternative supply base outside of China is further consolidated. In terms of specific industry benefits, Jefferies Financial Group Inc. analyst Randal Konik emphasized that diamond and jewelry retail giant Signet Jewelers Limited (SIG.US) is one of the biggest winners of this policy dividend, mainly because about half of the company's natural and synthetic diamond inventory is sourced from India, and the significant reduction in tariffs will directly an expansion of its gross profit margin. According to Jefferies Financial Group Inc. estimates, the weighted average tariff impact on Signet Jewelers Limited has roughly halved from 29.6% to 15.1%. Meanwhile, low-price retailer Five Below (FIVE.US), fashion e-commerce company Revolve Group (RVLV.US), and sports apparel leader NIKE, Inc. Class B (NKE.US) are also identified as core beneficiaries. With lower procurement costs, these companies with mature Indian supply chain networks demonstrate stronger competitive advantages in market pricing and profit certainty. From a macro industry chain perspective, several strategic industries in India are experiencing unprecedented export benefits. Leading textile companies such as Welspun Living, and auto parts manufacturers such as Sona Comstar and Bharat Forge, are rapidly penetrating the U.S. market with tariff advantages. Jefferies Financial Group Inc. further pointed out that in addition to traditional manufacturing industries, industries such as CECEP Solar Energy manufacturing, chemicals, and electronic manufacturing services (EMS) will also see strong growth potential due to trade environment transparency and optimization of cost structures.