Lyon: Lowered the target price of Great Wall Motor (02333) to HK$15 and maintained an "outperform" rating.

13:49 03/02/2026

The bank estimates that bicycle profits for the fourth quarter could increase by about 2,000 yuan to 10,500 yuan per quarter. Looking ahead to 2026, the bank anticipates that domestic sales of the Great Wall will be affected by weakening domestic demand.

Lyon released a research report stating that Great Wall Motor (02333, 601633.SH) has announced its preliminary performance for 2025, with revenue increasing by 10% year-on-year, but net profit decreasing by 22% year-on-year. The provision for year-end bonuses may affect the fourth quarter net profit by about 3 billion RMB. Excluding the delayed impact of the Russian scrapped car tax rebate, the bank estimates that the fourth quarter profit per vehicle could increase by about 2,000 yuan to 10,500 yuan. Looking ahead to 2026, the bank expects that domestic sales of Great Wall will be affected by weakening domestic demand, while the impact of the Russian market may continue. Therefore, the bank has lowered the net profit forecast for Great Wall in 2026 and 2027 by 19% and 3% respectively, and has also lowered the target P/E ratio multiples, reducing the H-share target price from 21 Hong Kong dollars to 15 Hong Kong dollars, and the A-share target price from 36 yuan to 24 yuan. However, the bank maintains an "outperform the market" rating, as it expects Great Wall to remain resilient in industry fluctuations.

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