Financial Report Outlook | Palantir(PLTR.US) High Growth Secured, Valuation and Guidance Key Variables

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR.US) plans to release its fourth quarter financial report for 2025 after the closing of the U.S. stock market on February 2, 2026 (Monday). The market widely expects the company's fourth quarter revenue to reach approximately $1.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of about 62%; adjusted earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be $0.23, a year-on-year increase of 64.3%. The expected increase in overall operating revenue is forecasted to further drive profit growth. In the Q3 report, Palantir's official revenue guidance for Q4 is in the range of $1.327 billion to $1.331 billion. The growth in fourth quarter revenue is likely due to the continued high demand for artificial intelligence technology in its government and commercial sectors. Market consensus expectations for government revenue are $707.2 million, a 55.4% increase from the same period last year; for commercial revenue, consensus expectations are $646.2 million, a high increase of 73.5%. The strong overall growth mentioned above is likely being driven by the continued trust from the U.S. government and private commercial organizations in the company's Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), allowing organizations to handle Beijing Vastdata Technology's integration and obtain real-time insights. The market is currently closely watching the growth of the U.S. commercial business, which grew by 121% in the previous quarter. With expectations of increased defense spending, Palantir's deep collaboration with the U.S. government and Department of Defense (such as the $448 million Navy contract) is a crucial support for its stock price. Investors will be most interested in the management's full-year guidance for 2026, which will determine whether the stock has further room for growth under its current high valuation. AIP is particularly valuable in fields requiring large-scale data integration such as defense, healthcare, finance, and intelligence, where operational efficiency and decision speed are crucial. It is expected that increased customer loyalty and confidence in Palantir's ability to deliver critical products have led to a surge in demand for its products in the fourth quarter. Additionally, the recently launched AI Hivemind is a popular AIP tool. It brings together agents generated dynamically on a large scale to solve various problems, come up with ideas, improve solutions, generate executable proposals, and integrate with the ontology knowledge base. This significant development is likely to further stimulate customer demand for business digitization and modernization in the quarter. Since Palantir's stock price has already risen by about 78% in 2025, the options market predicts that the stock price may fluctuate by up to 9% after the financial report is released. Analysts currently have mixed opinions on the stock, with some bullish on its leadership in AI and others concerned about its high valuation. It is worth mentioning that the company has a strong track record of earnings surprises. In the past four quarters, there have been three instances of beating Zacks consensus expectations and one meeting expectations, with an average surprise margin of 16.3%.